Posted on 11/04/2004 12:13:38 AM PST by Remember_Salamis
Dear FReepers,
I have put together analysis of 2006 Senate Races. Bottom Line: We look STRONG! There are many more retirements on the Democratic side (Feinstein, Byrd, Kohl, Bingaman, and maybe even Ted Kennedy) versus less on the GOP side (Frist plus Lugar, Lott, and Hatch are rumored to be mulling retirement). There are also a lot of other factors:
Republicans (15)
Solid Win - George Allen of Virginia – Allen’s seat is very safe
Win - Conrad Burns of Montana – Democrat Brian Schweitzer gave him a run for his money in 2000, but Schweitzer is the only prominent democrat in MT and he had to squeak out a congressional race.
Loss - Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island – I will make a confident prediction: Chafee or Snowe will lose in 2006. The Club for Growth absolutely detests Chafee, Snowe, and Collins and hey will spend millions to defeat on of them IN THE PRIMARIES. IF Chafee makes it through the primary, I think he’ll lose. His father’s name recognition is starting to wear off, and it’s a blue state.
Solid Win - Mike DeWine of Ohio – Safe Seat
Win - John Ensign of Nevada – Swing state, but win. Ensign is a very popular tax-cutter in NV and should pull it out. Ensign’s influence is growing rapidly and with Democrat Reid being the probable Minority leader, Nevadans will be very happy with major influence on both sides of the aisle. Besides, there’s not much Democratic competition outside of Shelley Berkley.
Retirement, Loss- Bill Frist of Tennessee - Frist will retire, as he has pledged, and conservative democrat Harold Ford jr. will win the seat. I’m not saying that Republican congressman Wamp can’t win the seat, but he can’t compete with Ford’s star power.
Solid Win - Orrin Hatch of Utah – Even if Hatch retires, there’s no way that Rep. Matheson (D) will beat the very popular Rep. Chris Cannon (R).
Solid Win- Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas – Safe.
Solid Win - John Kyl of Arizona – Very safe.
Win, but poss. Retirement - Trent Lott of Mississippi – Lott wins if he stays, but State attorney General Moore could put this seat in the democrat’s camp if he retires.
Win, regardless of retirement - Richard Lugar of Indiana – Outgoing Gov. Kernan (D), who was just voted out of office, might take a shot at Lugar’s seat. Other than that’ there aren’t many prominent democrats in the state not named Bayh.
Possible Loss - Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania – The Dems hate this guy like we hate Daschle or Harkin. There’s a good chance that the Democrats run Bob Casey jr. (fmr. Gov Bob Casey Sr.’s son), who is pro-life just like his father. Casey can piggyback off the Philadelphia political machine and go toe-to-toe with Santorum in Western PA on social issues.
Possible Loss - Olympia Snowe of Maine – Either the Maine GOP will purge her and get their soul back, or the Dems will simply beat her in the open election. Win - Jim Talent of Missouri – Missouri is moving out of the swing state category and more towards the red state category. I can’t see Talent losing unless Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) (Mel and Jean’s son) runs, but he’s pretty green (elected to the House in 2000).
Win - Craig Thomas of Wyoming – Not a chance of a loss
So, I have 11 Republican retentions and Four Republican losses.
Democrats (17) Solid Win - Daniel Akaka of Hawaii – Unless Gov. Lingle decides to run for Senate instead of Governor in 2006, which is highly unlikely, this is as big a lock as any seat.
Win, unless he retires - Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico – Heather Wilson, a former US Air Force Officer and current congresswoman, is going to run regardless. She has a good shot against Bingaman, but a great shot vs. an open seat.
Loss after Retirement or Death - Robert Byrd of West Virginia – Unless the former Klansman dies, he’ll probably retire. Although I’m hoping for the former, Shelley Capito (R), a moderate republican, should win in a state trending red. She’ll have to duke it out with two young conservative democratic congressmen, but she should pull it out.
Loss - Maria Cantwell of Washington – Although liberal whackjob and fellow Washington senator Patty Murray makes Cantwell look conservative, she is completely out of touch with those outside of Seattle. Republican George Nethercutt’s campaign against Murray caught on late, but the giant killer (he beat the unbeatable Tom Foley 10 years ago) has recently stated he’s considering “pulling a Thune” and running against Cantwell. Nethercutt will win in 2006. Guaranteed.
Win - Thomas Carper of Delaware – Safe
Loss - Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York – Rudy Giuliani WILL BEAT HER! In fact, there’s even a possibility that she resigns in 2006 to run for President in 2008 if she feels Rudy has a chance of winning. If that’s the case, Rudy easily beats AG Spitzer.
Win, but I don’t under stand why - Kent Conrad of North Dakota – How many years behind South Dakota is North Dakota politically. Both are HEAVILY RED states that elect two democrats to panhandle for farm subsidies. Conrad doesn’t have Dorgan’s political clout in D.C, so if popular – and just re-elected, Governor Hoeven decides to run, he could win. But I think he likes sitting in the Governor’s chair.
Loss - John Corzine of New Jersey – Backlash Alert! The backlash against McGAYvey will break the democratic political machine in Jersey. Corzine will be the first victim.
Loss - Mark Dayton of Minnesota – The already-vulnerable Dayton is now a laughingstock after fleeing D.C. last month due to concern over terrorism. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, no bastion of conservative thought, called Dayton "Cassandra," a "flake" and a "little chicken." Up-and-coming Conservative Rep. Mark Kennedy has been foaming at the mouth to take out Dayton since his friend Norm Coleman won a senate seat two years ago.
Loss after retirement - Dianne Feinstein of California – The gun-grabbin’ grandma will probably retire in 2006, and the Republicans will have a competitive primary between Rep. Issa, grassroots superstar Tom McCLintock, and National Security Advisor Condi Rice may all throw their hats in. Tom has stated he is already preparing for a run for Lt. Governor in 2006 instead, but we shall see. If Condi Rice runs, which I expect, Condi the Moderate will ride the Governator’s moderate coattails during his Gubernatorial campaign. Another reason why I think that the GOP will pick up this seat if Feinstein retires is that the Democrats will be throwing everything they have to defeat Arnie, leaving the senate seat ripe for the picking. An Arnie-Condi-Tom ticket could sweep the GOP back into prominence in the Golden State.
Win, even if he retires - Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts – Even if Teddy retires, it won’t be much of an improvement with gay icon Rep. Barney Frank in his seat. Gov. Romney could win the open seat, but I believe he’s eying the White House (which he will not win).
Loss after Retirement - Herb Kohl of Wisconsin – Rumors are a-flyin’ that Kohl will retire and HUD Secretary and former Gov. Tommy Thompson will run for his seat and take it.
Win - Joe Lieberman of Connecticut – It may sound strange, but keeping a moderate anchor in the Democratic Party in the senate is a good thing for this country.
Loss - Bill Nelson of Florida – You heard it here first: Jeb Bush will run for the Senate in 2006 and win. His Governor's seat is up that year too, so Jeb will decide to follow in his grandpappy's footsteps and become a Senator. I've heard is a bit of a policy wonk so he sounds great for the Senate. What's more, having Jeb in the senate is like keeping a spare tire in the trunk. If the wheels fall off the GOP in the 2008 election, we have an EXCELLENT "spare candidate" waiting in the wings in the senate for 2012.
Win - Ben Nelson of Nebraska – Nebraskans love having two moderates hugging the center from both sides.
Loss, even if he retires- Paul Sarbanes of Maryland – “The Man of Steele” will win. LT. Gov. Michael Steele, the black conservative who wowed so many at the convention, will run in 2006 for the Senate AND WIN. He was going to run against Sen. Mikulski this year, but the Governor asked him to wait. Steele has strongly hinted he will run in 2006.
Win - Debbie Stabenow of Michigan – A crappy candidate, but there’s little competition right now.
Dems retain 8, lose 9.
Independent (1) Previous %
Win, but we won’t pick up the seat - Jim Jeffords of Vermont – probable democratic pick-up in a very liberal state.
So, what does this all add up to? Well, the GOP will pick up 5 Seats for the second election in a row, the democrats will lose four, and Jeffords will either (1) become a Democrat or (2) lose.
That will put the Senate at 60-40 GOP. I feel very confident in this number because the GOP seats I picked to lose aren’t extremely weak, but merely vulnerable. Many people will vehemently disagree with my pick that BOTH New England RINOs up for reelection in 2006 will lose, that the majority leader will retire and the Democrats will take the seat, and that Rick Santorum will out and out lose. I’m also assuming that Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) will win, even though he’s definitely beatable and may even retire. I’m also assuming that Mitt Romney will not run for Teddy Kennedy’s seat if he were to die or retire. So technically, the GOP could get as many as 65 seats and should pick up at least 2 or 3 seats at a minimum. It’s pretty simple: in 2006 the Democrats have far more vulnerable seats than the GOP. The Democrats also have far more potential retirements than we do.
But there could there be a downturn to such a bright future in 2006??? Yes. If the GOP expects to make massive gains in 2006, there’s a chance that they will hold off on stronger, more controversial legislation until they get above 60 votes. They can then pass many of the historic pieces of legislation that we all want: Social Security privatization, Fundamental Tax Reform, Major Tort Reform (although I expect tort reform this spring), etc. So we could see the 109th Congress as nothing more than setting the stage for the 110th. The next two years will still be critical, however, as we may see MULTIPLE Supreme Court appointments.
- Remember Salamis
We can only hope...
And according to the American Conservative union ratings, Harold Ford's lifetime 20 rating puts him between Sen. Bayh's 22 and Lieberman's 19.
And so you think the three of them are conservatives? 20 on a scale of 100 makes one a conservative? Being 10 points to the right of Hillary makes one a conservative?
You DO understand there's a difference between rhetoric and reality, don't you? Have you never heard of politicians putting on a moderate face for the folks back home?
John Breaux is a moderate. He's at 46. Ben Nelson, 51. Linc Chafee, 43. Specter, 44.
After reading your post and the resulting comments I see that you've been exceedingly conservative in your estimates. (and we still get a gain of 5 seats) This leaves me with so much hope for the future.
60-40 is within reach and we'll be working on it starting now.
Why on earth would Katherine Harris pass up the Governor's House???
I've read that she was simply promised HIGHER OFFICE, not necessarily the Senate. Personally, I would take the Gov's House over the Senate.
Good lord, how many Carnahan's are in public office there???
I've thought of that myself! I would love for the President to appoint one of the senators from MD and then have the Gov. appoint LTGOV Steele to a senate seat!
How about appointing Mark Pryor of Arkansas? Gov. Huckabee will surely appoint a good republican to his seat.
20 is moderate/conservative -- for a democrat! Just like Arlen Sepcter's abysmal 43 rating makes him a LIBERAL republican, not a moderate like Dominici (73). Maybe I used a poor choice of words, but you get my point.
I'd rather Senator Henry Bonilla. Texas has to flavor its delegation with more Hispanic Republicans; too many white faces now.
Bonilla will make a great senator, but I'm a little worried about his approach to spending. He voted for the Medicare prescription drug act.
I also like Mac Thornberry and Sam Johnson. You guys have more GOP stars in Texas than you know what to do with.
So? So did Hutchison. So did John Cornyn. I don't see that as a negative in Texas politics.
Predicting elections two years ahead of time is a fool's errand (no offense intended). In an arena when a week can be an eternity, there are way too many unpredictable things that could happen in two years. I would be very surprised if 13 Senate seats switched parties in 2006. I could see either party picking up a couple of seats but barring some HUGE event, I doubt either party goes +5.
I don't see my former Congressman Nethercutt beating Cantwell. She is a weak candidate but unfortunately I don't think that George is a strong enough candidate to overcome the disadvantages that Republicans face in a statewide race in Washington. If Rossi loses the Governor's race, he is the man who would beat Cantwell in 2006.
NetherCutt came on very strong towards the end of the campaign, and he's now known statewide. He has a much better chance of winning in 2006.
In 2001, Fast Eddie crushed Casey in the primary simply because he was able to bring out the Philly vote in big numbers.
2006 is an off year election and you won't be seeing big turnout in Philly for Casey who is from the NE section of the state. Even though the lefties hate Santorum with a passion, Casey will not appeal to them much more because he is virtually identical with Rick on the one issue that matters most to the left --- the un-holy sacrament of abortion.
I see a growing Republican organization in Western PA along with ethnic Regan Democrats being able to return their hometown boy to the Senate. It matters much in the Western part of the state that 'one of theirs' is in the Senate to ballance the Eastern part of the state.
Just MHO.
The National Review yesterday speculated that Santorum's support of Specter over grassroots hero Pat Toomey may have angered his base, lowering turnout. I can't find it (it's in the Corner's archives), but this was posted today:
"IT'S TOO LATE... [John J. Miller]
But doesn't the case for Pat Toomey look a lot stronger today? It's no secret that Specter in any position of authority is a disaster for conservatives, but Specter's conservative supporters (such as Rick Santorum) kept making a prudential argument: The GOP Senate majority is just too slim to take a chance on Pat Toomey, especially when Specter is a sure thing for re-election. This is not an outrageous argument. But consider it today: Republicans don't need Specter for a majority, not even accounting for the possibility of a guy like Chafee bolting the party. What's more, Specter clearly didn't help put Bush over the top in Pennsylvania. So remind me: As we consider the prospect of Judiciary Committee Chairman Specter, why was this a good bargain? Last April, I was convinced that it was worth taking a chance on Toomey. Today, even more so.
Posted at 11:35 AM"
I doubt it.
Also consider this. Casey is not a sure shot to win the Rat nomination in 06, and even if he did, he would likely only get half-hearted support from the Rat organization in the general. The last time Rick ran, he faced a pro-life Democrat from Western PA, Congressman Ron Klink. Klink only won the Rat nomination with something like 40% in a 3-way race where the Philly vote was divided between two lefties from the Eastern part of the state. In a two-way race, he likely wouldn't have made it. Democrat primary voters are scewed way to the left of the general election voters. As it was, Klink was broke by the time he won the nomination and the state party didn't do much to help him. Rick had pretty much a cake-walk against a pro-life "conservative" Democrat.
BTW. If Klink had run against Specter, I am convinced he would have won. He just picked the wrong Senate seat to go after.
He had four children, three boys and one girl. One boy and the girl are gay. The gay son died. One son is now a Congressman. He took Gephart's seat. The lesbian is our new Secretary of State. Her "partner" was the judge who left the polls open in 2000 for her dead father to win (and, by default, her mother). This is going to have to be watched like a hawk because the Office of Secretary of State controls state voting. The last son is a bon-vivant party boy.
I've gotta disagree with this. Either Candice Miller or Mike Rogers would be an excellent candidate. I actually consider debbie one of the weakest incumbents for 2006.
As an aside, 2006 could see a large amount of Republican woman running for the Senate. In addition to Hutchinson and Snowe, Katherine Harris, Candice Miller, Condi Rice, Marsha Blackburn, Shelley Moore Capito, Heather Wilson, Jennifer Dunn, Margaret Farrow & Kerry Healey are all possible candidates (to at least some degree). Unfortunately, I believe that less than half of them are solidly pro-life.
What about Paul Cellucci? His is the name I've heard mentioned most-often about a possible Senate run on the GOP side.
Socialized health care is a negative in any sort of politics.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.