U.S. SENATE ELECTION CYCLE 2006: Can the GOP get to 60?

George Allen of Virginia 52%
Conrad Burns of Montana 51%
Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island 57%
Mike DeWine of Ohio 60%
John Ensign of Nevada 55%
Bill Frist of Tennessee 65%
Orrin Hatch of Utah 66%
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas 68%
John Kyl of Arizona 79%
Trent Lott of Mississippi 66%
Richard Lugar of Indiana 67%
Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania 52%
Olympia Snowe of Maine 69%
Jim Talent of Missouri 50%
Craig Thomas of Wyoming 65%

Daniel Akaka of Hawaii 73%
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico 62%
Robert Byrd of West Virginia 78%
Maria Cantwell of Washington 49%
Thomas Carper of Delaware 56%
Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York 55%
Kent Conrad of North Dakota 62%
John Corzine of New Jersey 50%
Mark Dayton of Minnesota 49%
Dianne Feinstein of California 56%
Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts 73%
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin 62%
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut 63%
Bill Nelson of Florida 51%
Ben Nelson of Nebraska 51%
Paul Sarbanes of Maryland 63%
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan 49%

"Can the G.O.P. get to 60?"

Possibly, but not probably. Depends on who retires.

POSSIBLE RETIREES:

Conrad Burns (R-MT)
William Frist (R-TN)
Trent Lott (R-MS)
Richard Lugar (R-IN)

Daniel Akaka (HI)
Robert Byrd (WV)
Diane Feinstein (CA)
Paul Sarbanes (MD)
Edward Kennedy (MA)

SECURE OR LIKELY REELECTS

Mike DeWine (R-OH)
John Ensign (R-NV)
Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Kay Hutchison (R-TX)
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
Craig Thomas (R-WY)

Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)
Kent Conrad (D-ND)
Herb Kohl (D-WI)
Joe Leiberman (D-CT)

INCUMBENTS IN POTENTIAL DANGER

George Allen (R-VA): Faces possible challenge from wealthy Governor Mark Warner.
Lincoln Chafee (R-RI): Possible challenges from Lieutenant Governor Charles Fohgerty, state Attorney General Patrick Lynch, & Secretary of State Matt Brown. Primary challenge from Governor Donald Carcieri not out of question.
Jim Talent (R-MO) Narrow winner in '02 special may face newly-elected Rep. Russ Carnahan, whose mother he edged. State Auditor Clare McCaskill another possiblilty.
Maria Cantwell (D-WA) 2,200-vote winner on recount faces possible challenge. If Dino Rossi loses Gov. race, he would be first choice.
Tom Carper (D-DE) Solid winner in '00 is tough to beat, but marital rumors don't help. Ex-Judge William Lee could make a race of it.
Hitlery Rodham Clinton (D-NY) Tough to beat, but not impossible. Rudy Guiliani would start out ahead, Gov. George Pataki would also be tough.
Jon Corzine (D-NJ) Wants to be Gov. If he wins, it's winnable. State Senator William Gormley, near-winner of '00 & '02 Senate primaries, may think 3rd. time is charm. 'Rat field would be wide open.
Mark Dayton (D-MN) A flaky socialite version of the late Paul Wellstone. Rep. Mark Kennedy likely to run.
Bill Nelson (D-FL) Many Republicans eying the race, though Nelson will be no pushover.
Ben Nelson (D-NE) Term-limited Gov. Michael Johans would be favorite if he ran.
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Favored to survive, but not secure. Possible opposition unclear.

"POSSIBLE RETIREES:

Conrad Burns (R-MT)
William Frist (R-TN)
Trent Lott (R-MS)
Richard Lugar (R-IN)

Daniel Akaka (HI)
Robert Byrd (WV)
Diane Feinstein (CA)
Paul Sarbanes (MD)
Edward Kennedy (MA) "

If Senator Burns retires, Congressman Rehberg will run and win. In TN, former Congressman Bryant already announced he's running and should be tough to beat, even if prettyboy Harold Ford runs. Lott's seat would be safely held by Chip Pickering, while there are several good Republican candidates in IN who would be tough to beat by any Democrat, but I don't think Lugar will retire.

Among the Democrat seats, HI would be very tough even if Akaka retires, although perhaps Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona could make a race out of it. If Robert Byrd retires, we would finally have a shot at a WV Senate seat, with state Senator Wolf and Congresswoman Capito as possible candidates---but if Congressman Mollohan runs, I'm afraid we will have an uphill battle. I doubt Feinstein will retire, since she would only do so to run for Governor, and I don't think she wants to face Arnold, but if she retires we have a lot of guys who could win, although none who would be strongly favored. In MD, I think Lt. Gov. Steele would make a fantastic candidate, and if Kweisi Mfume gets the Democrat nomination (a while back he expressed interest in running if Sarbanes retired) I think Steele will win. And in MA, I doubt that Ted Kennedy will retire, since I think he'll go for Strom's longevity record, but if he retires we don't have any obvious candidates, since Governor Romney will be running for reelection.

You should add Kay Bailey Hutchinson as a possible retiree, since she may run for Governor. Either Congressman Henry Bonilla or Governor Rick Perry would be favored to hold the seat.

"SECURE OR LIKELY REELECTS

Kent Conrad (D-ND)
Herb Kohl (D-WI) "

I think former Governor Shaffer (or current Governor Hoeven) would send Conrad packing, and either former Governor Thompson or Congressman Paul Ryan would have a good shot at Kohl.

"INCUMBENTS IN POTENTIAL DANGER

George Allen (R-VA): Faces possible challenge from wealthy Governor Mark Warner."

I agree, that could be a close race if it materializes. Since Warner's term ends in January of 2006, and he will need something to do before perhaps running for president in 2008, I think he'll jump into the race with both feet.

"Lincoln Chafee (R-RI): Possible challenges from Lieutenant Governor Charles Fohgerty, state Attorney General Patrick Lynch, & Secretary of State Matt Brown. Primary challenge from Governor Donald Carcieri not out of question."

You're forgetting about two other possible opponents, Congressmen Jim Langevin and Patrick Kennedy. On the GOP side, I doubt Governor Carcieri will run, since he will probably run for reelection that year, but hopefully someone will run against that awful RINO Chafee and take him out in the primary. Maybe former Congressman Machtley.

"Jim Talent (R-MO) Narrow winner in '02 special may face newly-elected Rep. Russ Carnahan, whose mother he edged. State Auditor Clare McCaskill another possiblilty."

I think Talent would beat Russ Carnahan pretty badly, and McCaskill would have a hard time as well. I assume that Dick Gephardt isn't interested in the race. What's the name of the Ivy League guy who ran in the RAT primary against Cleaver? He might be the RAT candidate, but he'll get whooped.

"Maria Cantwell (D-WA) 2,200-vote winner on recount faces possible challenge. If Dino Rossi loses Gov. race, he would be first choice."

Agreed on Rossi being our top choice as it stands right now. But maybe Jennifer Dunn won't like private life and would be willing to take on the very vulnerable Cantwell.

"Tom Carper (D-DE) Solid winner in '00 is tough to beat, but marital rumors don't help. Ex-Judge William Lee could make a race of it."

What are the marital rumors? And did you forget about Congressman Castle (like Carper, a former governor)?

"Hitlery Rodham Clinton (D-NY) Tough to beat, but not impossible. Rudy Guiliani would start out ahead, Gov. George Pataki would also be tough.

Rudy would beat her, but I fear that Pataki would tank. If neither of the two superstars run, part of me would like to see Congressman Vito Fossella (a pro-life Catholic from Staten Island) run.

"Jon Corzine (D-NJ) Wants to be Gov. If he wins, it's winnable. State Senator William Gormley, near-winner of '00 & '02 Senate primaries, may think 3rd. time is charm. 'Rat field would be wide open."

Corzine barely won in 2000. I don't see why everyone believes that he's unbeatable in New Jersey. I'd run Congressman LoBiondo from South Jersey.

"Mark Dayton (D-MN) A flaky socialite version of the late Paul Wellstone. Rep. Mark Kennedy likely to run."

Mark Kennedy will win going away, unless Dayton sees the writing on the wall and retires, in which case Kennedy would be favored over whichever Democrat runs but it may be a close race.

"Bill Nelson (D-FL) Many Republicans eying the race, though Nelson will be no pushover."

WE NEED JEB!

"Ben Nelson (D-NE) Term-limited Gov. Michael Johans would be favorite if he ran."

I think Johanns will run and win, unless Ben Nelson switches to the GOP in 2005 (which I think he will do).

"Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Favored to survive, but not secure. Possible opposition unclear."

I think our two best options are Congressman Mike Rogers and Congresswoman Candice Miller, and either of them would make the race a toss-up (remember, Stabenow barely beat Abraham in a very good GOP year). Whichever of Rogers and Miller doesn't run could go after Governor Granholm, unless it's apparent that Granholm can't be beat.

Here's what I see happening:

Democrat Seats
Florida Katherine Harris vs. Bill Nelson
West Virginia a contest if Byrd retires, probably Shelly Moore Capito. Look for the national party to go 'all in' in WV for once. Bush/Rove want to complete the transition to a GOP majority state here.
Wisconsin I think Kohl will run once more, and I think only TT would beat him. Mark Green et al will run for governor.
NoDak I think Conrad plays ball on judges and avoids a top challenge. Look for Pomeroy to be targeted by a statewide officeholder (AG Wayne Stenejhem?) and if that fails Hoeven vs. Pomeroy for House in 2008.
Maryland Sarbanes will run again, I think. An intriguing two-step would be Ehrlich for Senate and Steele for Governor. But most likely Sarbanes avoids a top challenge. Maryland is unlikely to want to add to a GOP-dominated govt.
Massachusetts I could almost see Kennedy retiring, and then it's Celucci vs. whoever -- never underestimate the MA Dems to pick a loser for a nominee tho
Rhode Island Chafee continues to be major pain in ass, gets a major challenge, wins.
Delaware Carper wins
Michigan I think Stabenow is a ripe for defeat. Nick Smith or Candice Miller for the GOP? Engler would be awesome -- but really an interesting choice for president.
Washington I think Cantwell will win a close race, unfortuntely, running against Bush's judges. Probable GOP candidate: John Stanton, Paul somebody.
Nebraska I see Ben Nelson switching too. Why risk a career for the flippin' liberal Democrats?
New Jersey Bob Menendez wins election to a full term.
New York Rudy or bust.
Minnesota Dayton is toast, but may be forced out. Democrats Mike Hatch for governor and Martin Olav Sabo for senate????? I think Kennedy takes this either way.

Excellent posting, as usual, Here are some answers to your questions:

MONTANA: I agree that Rep. Dennis Rehberg would be the favorite. But state Attorney General Mike McGrath, who was unopposed this year, could make a race of it if interested.

MISSISSIPPI: Chip Pickering would run, and sympathy for his father's treatment in Senate hearings would help. I think that Roger Wicker might also be interested, and perhaps Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, as well. There is one Democrat who could give Republicans REAL trouble: conservative maverick Gene Taylor. One would think if he's going to be in the minority party, it might as well be in the individualistic Senate, not the ideological House.

INDIANA: Richard Lugar will be 74 in 2006, and have been in the Senate for 30 years. This would be the perfect time to retire after a long and honorable career.

HAWAII: Daniel Akaka will be 83 in 2006, and in the minority party for years to come. If he does retire, as I expect, anti-machine Congressman Ed Case will almost certainly run, and a Neil Abercrombie candidacy is possible. The corrupt 'Rat machine would back Dan Inouye's choice, ex-General Eric Shineski.

MASSACHUSETTS: Ted Kennedy will be 74 in 2006, and may want to live out his golden years making speaking fees and popping viagra. The 'Rat field would crowded and virtually every Congressman and statewide officeholder a possiblilty. One intriguing possibility--the ultraliberal vote is split in a crowded field, and pro-life Rep. Stephen Lynch wins the Democrat nomination.

DELEWARE: Mike Castle is not interested in the Senate and has said so. He is something of a power broker in the House.

WEST VIRGINIA: Alan Mollohan is a senior member of the powerful Appropriations Committee, where he has more influence than a freshman Senator would. He also dislikes publicity.

MEW MEXICO: My mistake here. Jeff Bingaman will be favored to win, but not assured of reelection. Heather Wilson is already contemplating a challenge.

RHODE ISLAND: Patrick Kennedy could have run in 2000 and didn't. He also has high negative ratings.

MISSOURI: State Auditor Clare McCaskill challenged an incumbent of her own party this year, so presumably wants higher office. She is term-limited in 2006 and has plenty of name I.D from her near-successful Gov. race, not to mention a strong base in Kansas City, where she was D.A. If I were a 'Rat recruiter, she would be my first choice.

MICHIGAN: Normally, Candice Miller would be a good choice. But this year, she got caught up in the Nick Smith/Tom DeLay vote-buying scandal and caught flack back home from it.

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