"POSSIBLE RETIREES:
Conrad Burns (R-MT)
William Frist (R-TN)
Trent Lott (R-MS)
Richard Lugar (R-IN)
Daniel Akaka (HI)
Robert Byrd (WV)
Diane Feinstein (CA)
Paul Sarbanes (MD)
Edward Kennedy (MA) "
If Senator Burns retires, Congressman Rehberg will run and win. In TN, former Congressman Bryant already announced he's running and should be tough to beat, even if prettyboy Harold Ford runs. Lott's seat would be safely held by Chip Pickering, while there are several good Republican candidates in IN who would be tough to beat by any Democrat, but I don't think Lugar will retire.
Among the Democrat seats, HI would be very tough even if Akaka retires, although perhaps Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona could make a race out of it. If Robert Byrd retires, we would finally have a shot at a WV Senate seat, with state Senator Wolf and Congresswoman Capito as possible candidates---but if Congressman Mollohan runs, I'm afraid we will have an uphill battle. I doubt Feinstein will retire, since she would only do so to run for Governor, and I don't think she wants to face Arnold, but if she retires we have a lot of guys who could win, although none who would be strongly favored. In MD, I think Lt. Gov. Steele would make a fantastic candidate, and if Kweisi Mfume gets the Democrat nomination (a while back he expressed interest in running if Sarbanes retired) I think Steele will win. And in MA, I doubt that Ted Kennedy will retire, since I think he'll go for Strom's longevity record, but if he retires we don't have any obvious candidates, since Governor Romney will be running for reelection.
You should add Kay Bailey Hutchinson as a possible retiree, since she may run for Governor. Either Congressman Henry Bonilla or Governor Rick Perry would be favored to hold the seat.
"SECURE OR LIKELY REELECTS
Kent Conrad (D-ND)
Herb Kohl (D-WI) "
I think former Governor Shaffer (or current Governor Hoeven) would send Conrad packing, and either former Governor Thompson or Congressman Paul Ryan would have a good shot at Kohl.
"INCUMBENTS IN POTENTIAL DANGER
George Allen (R-VA): Faces possible challenge from wealthy Governor Mark Warner."
I agree, that could be a close race if it materializes. Since Warner's term ends in January of 2006, and he will need something to do before perhaps running for president in 2008, I think he'll jump into the race with both feet.
"Lincoln Chafee (R-RI): Possible challenges from Lieutenant Governor Charles Fohgerty, state Attorney General Patrick Lynch, & Secretary of State Matt Brown. Primary challenge from Governor Donald Carcieri not out of question."
You're forgetting about two other possible opponents, Congressmen Jim Langevin and Patrick Kennedy. On the GOP side, I doubt Governor Carcieri will run, since he will probably run for reelection that year, but hopefully someone will run against that awful RINO Chafee and take him out in the primary. Maybe former Congressman Machtley.
"Jim Talent (R-MO) Narrow winner in '02 special may face newly-elected Rep. Russ Carnahan, whose mother he edged. State Auditor Clare McCaskill another possiblilty."
I think Talent would beat Russ Carnahan pretty badly, and McCaskill would have a hard time as well. I assume that Dick Gephardt isn't interested in the race. What's the name of the Ivy League guy who ran in the RAT primary against Cleaver? He might be the RAT candidate, but he'll get whooped.
"Maria Cantwell (D-WA) 2,200-vote winner on recount faces possible challenge. If Dino Rossi loses Gov. race, he would be first choice."
Agreed on Rossi being our top choice as it stands right now. But maybe Jennifer Dunn won't like private life and would be willing to take on the very vulnerable Cantwell.
"Tom Carper (D-DE) Solid winner in '00 is tough to beat, but marital rumors don't help. Ex-Judge William Lee could make a race of it."
What are the marital rumors? And did you forget about Congressman Castle (like Carper, a former governor)?
"Hitlery Rodham Clinton (D-NY) Tough to beat, but not impossible. Rudy Guiliani would start out ahead, Gov. George Pataki would also be tough.
Rudy would beat her, but I fear that Pataki would tank. If neither of the two superstars run, part of me would like to see Congressman Vito Fossella (a pro-life Catholic from Staten Island) run.
"Jon Corzine (D-NJ) Wants to be Gov. If he wins, it's winnable. State Senator William Gormley, near-winner of '00 & '02 Senate primaries, may think 3rd. time is charm. 'Rat field would be wide open."
Corzine barely won in 2000. I don't see why everyone believes that he's unbeatable in New Jersey. I'd run Congressman LoBiondo from South Jersey.
"Mark Dayton (D-MN) A flaky socialite version of the late Paul Wellstone. Rep. Mark Kennedy likely to run."
Mark Kennedy will win going away, unless Dayton sees the writing on the wall and retires, in which case Kennedy would be favored over whichever Democrat runs but it may be a close race.
"Bill Nelson (D-FL) Many Republicans eying the race, though Nelson will be no pushover."
WE NEED JEB!
"Ben Nelson (D-NE) Term-limited Gov. Michael Johans would be favorite if he ran."
I think Johanns will run and win, unless Ben Nelson switches to the GOP in 2005 (which I think he will do).
"Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Favored to survive, but not secure. Possible opposition unclear."
I think our two best options are Congressman Mike Rogers and Congresswoman Candice Miller, and either of them would make the race a toss-up (remember, Stabenow barely beat Abraham in a very good GOP year). Whichever of Rogers and Miller doesn't run could go after Governor Granholm, unless it's apparent that Granholm can't be beat.