Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)

Zogby.com ^ | 11/2/04

[Cableguy]

Released: November 02, 2004 Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

2004 Presidential Election

	Electoral Votes:
Bush	213
Kerry	311
To Close To Call	Nevada (5)
To Close To Call	Colorado (9)

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Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2

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Here's how we got there...

George Bush (Electoral Vote)

UT	5	KS	6
WY	3	MS	6
ID	4	SC	8
AK	3	IN	11
NE	5	KY	8
ND	3	AL	9
MT	3	GA	15
SD	3	LA	9
OK	7	TX	34

John Kerry (Electoral Vote)

ME	4	MD	10
VT	3	CT	7
IL	21	HI	4
RI	4	NY	31
DE	3	MA	12
NJ	15	DC	3
CA	55

Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142

Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

2004 Battleground States:

	2000	2004 Our Call	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
	%Margin	%Margin
Arizona (10)*	Bush + 6.28%	Bush 6%	10	-
Arkansas (6)*	Bush + 5.44%	Bush 3%	6	-
Colorado (9)	Bush + 8.36%	To Close To Call	-	-
Florida (27)	Bush + 0.01%	Kerry .1% Trending Kerry	-	27
Iowa (7)	Gore + 0.31%	Kerry 5%	-	7
Michigan (17)	Gore + 5.13%	Kerry 6%	-	17
Minnesota (10)	Gore + 2.4%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Missouri (11)*	Bush + 3.34%	Bush 3%	11	-
Nevada (5)	Bush + 3.55%	To Close To Call	-	-
New Hampshire (4) *	Bush + 1.27%	Kerry 5%	-	4
New Mexico (5)	Gore + 0.06%	Kerry 3%	-	5
North Carolina (15)*	Bush + 12.83%	Bush 3%	15	-
Oregon (7)*	Gore + 0.44%	Kerry 10%	-	7
Ohio (20)	Bush + 3.51%	Bush 2% Trending Kerry	-	20
Pennsylvania (21)	Gore + 4.17%	Trending Kerry	-	21
Tennessee (11)*	Bush + 3.86%	Bush 4%	11	-
Virginia (13)*	Bush + 7.00%	Bush	13	-
Washington (11)*	Gore + 5.58%	Kerry 11%	-	11
West Virginia (5)*	Bush + 6.32%	Bush 4%	5	-
Wisconsin (10)	Gore + 0.22%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Battleground State Totals			71	139
Current Grand Total:			213	311

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

[fizziwig]

"#1 I'd like some of what Zogby is smoking."

Its the same stuff that Baghdad Bob was smoking in the last days of Baghdad. Really great stuff if you like unreality.

[sinkspur]

You post from a Democrat website?

What a friggin' joke!

[Jrabbit]

Even if he's a little bit wrong....we lose. I can't believe all the polls showing Bush ahead could be so wrong....

[GOP_Party_Animal]

I'm worried about Tradesports.com - it indicates Bush's numbers have crashed hard lately.

[FrankOwens]

You know, I don't suppose Zogby will be out of a drop after Bush wins big, but it is comforting to know that he will be relagated to the part of the MSM that doesn't matter...ie CBS, NY Times...etc.

[mrsmith]

On the news show, the peaceful news show, the pollster sleeps tonight.
On the news show, the peaceful news show, the pollster sleeps tonight.

Wee-ooh wim-o-weh. Wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh
o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-weh.
Wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh
o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-weh.

Hush, my darling, don't puke, my darling, the pollster sleeps tonight.
Hush, my darling, don't puke, my darling, the pollster sleeps tonight.

Whuh whuh whuh wim-o-weh. Wee-ooh wim-o-weh wee-ooh
wim-o-weh wee-ooh wim-o-weh.

[over3Owithabrain]

I'm not concerned with the political ramifications so much as the victory this would be for the Islamic terrorists.

[kara37]

I would like to point out that exit polls do not include absentee and early voting. It was reported that Bush was up by 125,000 votes going into today!

[MHT]

Zogby is so unworthy--he's been all over the place for the past two days. That's not "polling"--that's "following the bouncing ball"!

[The_Republican]

How come investors are not laughing?

[bray]

A lame attempt to keep his polling company!! Either way he can claim he caught the election at the end.

Pray for W and Our Election

[dangus]

Bush up by 2% in Ohio, but he scores it as a Kerry win? Give Bush Ohio, and Florida, as this data shows we should and Bush wins it.

(Kerry by .1% in Florida polls is a Bush win when the military votes come in.)

[Cableguy]

What you posted are links to allegedly exit polls. What this thread is about Zogby's idiotic last polls and how he sees them.

[The_Republican]

Zogpee takes VOTER FRAUD into account - its simple as that.

[MNJohnnie]

So this is the final nail into Zogby's over inflated reputation. He clearly is trying to influence the election by releasing this now.

[GLDNGUN]

Give Bush Ohio, and Florida, as this data shows we should and Bush wins it.

Only if Bush gets Colo, and then it's a 269-269 tie.

[BenLurkin]

[sinkspur]

How come investors are not laughing?

Investors in what? Those silly sports-like websites?

The market? The consensus is that the market doesn't want uncertainty, and that's what they see.

[familyop]

...related, IMO.

Exit Polls: What You Should Know (Everyone READ about EXIT Polls
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1266741/posts

[MNJohnnie]

http://www.alternet.org/election04/20385/



And as been pointed out several times today. These are completely made up numbers that have NO veracity from any reliable source. Kind of courious why "The Republican" keeps posting Movone.org propaganda? Couldn't be trying to depress the Republican turnout now could you?????