Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)

Zogby.com ^ | 11/2/04

[Cableguy]

Released: November 02, 2004 Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

2004 Presidential Election

	Electoral Votes:
Bush	213
Kerry	311
To Close To Call	Nevada (5)
To Close To Call	Colorado (9)

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Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2

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Here's how we got there...

George Bush (Electoral Vote)

UT	5	KS	6
WY	3	MS	6
ID	4	SC	8
AK	3	IN	11
NE	5	KY	8
ND	3	AL	9
MT	3	GA	15
SD	3	LA	9
OK	7	TX	34

John Kerry (Electoral Vote)

ME	4	MD	10
VT	3	CT	7
IL	21	HI	4
RI	4	NY	31
DE	3	MA	12
NJ	15	DC	3
CA	55

Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142

Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

2004 Battleground States:

	2000	2004 Our Call	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
	%Margin	%Margin
Arizona (10)*	Bush + 6.28%	Bush 6%	10	-
Arkansas (6)*	Bush + 5.44%	Bush 3%	6	-
Colorado (9)	Bush + 8.36%	To Close To Call	-	-
Florida (27)	Bush + 0.01%	Kerry .1% Trending Kerry	-	27
Iowa (7)	Gore + 0.31%	Kerry 5%	-	7
Michigan (17)	Gore + 5.13%	Kerry 6%	-	17
Minnesota (10)	Gore + 2.4%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Missouri (11)*	Bush + 3.34%	Bush 3%	11	-
Nevada (5)	Bush + 3.55%	To Close To Call	-	-
New Hampshire (4) *	Bush + 1.27%	Kerry 5%	-	4
New Mexico (5)	Gore + 0.06%	Kerry 3%	-	5
North Carolina (15)*	Bush + 12.83%	Bush 3%	15	-
Oregon (7)*	Gore + 0.44%	Kerry 10%	-	7
Ohio (20)	Bush + 3.51%	Bush 2% Trending Kerry	-	20
Pennsylvania (21)	Gore + 4.17%	Trending Kerry	-	21
Tennessee (11)*	Bush + 3.86%	Bush 4%	11	-
Virginia (13)*	Bush + 7.00%	Bush	13	-
Washington (11)*	Gore + 5.58%	Kerry 11%	-	11
West Virginia (5)*	Bush + 6.32%	Bush 4%	5	-
Wisconsin (10)	Gore + 0.22%	Kerry 6%	-	10
Battleground State Totals			71	139
Current Grand Total:			213	311

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

[goldstategop]

And doing the same thing in FL? Hugh Hewitt's been hearing a different picture with Catholics and Hispanics coming out for Bush. Either Zogby or Hugh is right. I'll take Hugh.

[truthandlife]

I don't like this at all. We need to GOTV in FL and PENN in the last hour.

[Freepdonia]

Duh, that makes good sense, duh! :-)

[colorado tanker]

Colorado too close to call??? Zog's been drinking his special sauce.

[Shermy]

I noticed he gave Virginia to Bush...but did NOT list by what percent.

Probably a big percent, and since Zogby earlier said VA was a tossup he's hiding it. doesn't want to evidence his own wild variables.

[Godzilla]

Zog must really want to totally discredit himself for ever.

[dalebert]

Zog is all over the place today.

[mmyers]

I voted for John Zogby before I voted against him.

John Fraud Kerry

[Pukin Dog]

The GOP has received information suggesting that the Media, headed up by CBS, is trying to create a scenario which would allow them to declare Kerry the winner, based upon exit polling alone!! They are hoping that negative news will discourage the large AFTER WORK GOP turnout from occurring. They want a day of bad news to keep us from going to the evening polls.

GOP internals suggest numbers as strong as I mentioned this morning, but the media is not reporting those. Were it any other day, the Media would be ignoring Drudge, but they are feeding him these heavily weighted exit polls which favor Kerry, while completely ignoring any evidence to the contrary.

This is not an accident.

The Media is trying to create the conditions for Kerry to claim victory, then fight in court any conflicting numbers. WE MUST IGNORE EXIT POLLING AND GET OUT THERE AND VOTE, PEOPLE.

[GLDNGUN]

So much for objectivity...

If he's right except for Florida and Ohio, and we take Colo...269-269.

[rushmom]

They've been voting in the panhandle all day.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Yeah, right - Bush wins the popular and loses the EV - another Zogby wet dream......

[meandog]

Take heart Fellow Freepers...even if the unthinkable occurs I see a silver lining in a Bush defeat. Remember when Clinton was elected? Two years later a complete turnover of both the House and Senate occurred. I predict a repudiation two years down the road similiar to what (former California) Gov. Gray Davis experienced for "President Kerry" should he be elected!

[atomicpossum]

Zogby will still be getting this election wrong NEXT week. His polling is apparently done by Salvador Dali.

[Sprite518]

Boy I hope Zogby is wrong :-(

[nopardons]

Zogby is smoking hashish!

[BladeLWS]

And there goes Zogby's reputation as a pollster, good riddance.

[Acrobat]

Well, if he's right, then everyone else is wrong...

I mean, how can you give Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico ALL to Kerry, unless you're sniffing your own pixie dust...

[GivemeaBREAK!]

So Kerry gets ALL of the BG states of note??
IA, OH, FL, PN, WI, NM....
Give me a break!!!!!!!!!