Posted on 11/01/2004 10:58:05 AM PST by Paul8148
From the Wall Street Journal (courtesy of the Note): "Bush advisers noted late movement toward the Republican ticket in Ohio; one senior Kerry adviser, after days in which the campaign had been especially bullish on the state, predicted Florida's 27 electoral votes might be easier to grab than Ohio's 20."
I have a headache! First Bush is losing Oh, then he's ahead....then he's winning FL and now he may not. GRRRRR!
We're going to win both Florida and Ohio tomorrow, and Kerry will be forced to win ALL of the following to win: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Hawaii.
the doubters apparently missed the massive crowd assembled at the Cincinatti Reds' ballpark last night - Kerry can't even rent a minor league stadium in Florida let alone fill MBL & NFL sites in OH, MN, NH and elsewhere.
I throught he have to take NH and another Bush state if he hold Bush holds on to everything else?
How can a state swing in half a day?
he scheduled for the Palace (pistons) in michigan last Wed and had to move it to the SilverDome (ex-lions - enormous) to accomodate the crowd right here in RatLand. (Actually Bush will take 95% of the state except the cruddy few square miles in Detroit that will make it a nailbiter.
Actually, if Bush simply holds serve in all states
from 2000 save NH, he still wins.
MV
My gosh, he has to win New Mexico twice?!
So Kerry needs to win New Mexico twice? I really feel better now.
One of the speakers said this was the largest rally in the history of Hamilton Co. His base is motivated and they will turn out.
Just my opinion....I don't think OH has ever been a swing state. I have never believed the polls or the media.
"W" Will Win OHIO!!!!
Hehe, the guy is so wrong about Florida, too. Here is something I just posted in a related thread about the new FNC Florida poll, which is relevant here as well:
Let's put these numbers (and weekend polls) in context. I'm going to limit this example to Florida, because it is by far the most important of these three states and the only state in which FNC is reporting "bad" news.
According to FNC, their poll of 700 likely Florida voters, taken 10/30 and 10/31 (Saturday and Halloween Sunday), shows Kerry winning 49-44. Also partly over the weekend (including both Saturday and Halloween Sunday), Quinnipiac polled 1,098 likely voters and found Bush leading 51-43. If we combine these two polls together, we get a sample size of 1,798 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4%. Doing the math, Bush has the lead in this combined sample of likely voters polled over the weekend: 48.3% to 45.3%.
Now, let's throw in the Mason Dixon poll that came out over the weekend as well. That poll had 625 LVs, and once they are added in to this sample, three things happen: (1) the total sample size increases to 2423; the margin of error shrinks to plus or minus two percent; and (3) in this larger sample, Bush leads 48.4% to 45.1 percent.
One other comment: I am not including this weekend's Gallup poll, which shows an 11 point swing from last weekend's Gallup poll, because I think that both these polls are outliers albeit in opposite directions (I don't think Kerry actually gained 11 points on Bush in the space of one week, this dog just won't hunt). If you average them together, they reinforce my conclusion that Bush actually leads in Florida by about three or four points, even if you give slightly more weight to this weekend's sample just to be safe.
Thus, it seems clear that even the weekend polls in Florida are showing a small but consistent lead for Bush -- despite the MSM's and FNC's best attempts to scare us into watching their coverage on Election Night to see who wins. Don't get scared, but please vote -- especially if you live in Florida or other battleground states.
What happens if the US annex's Prince Edward Island and they vote for Nader?
Kerry needs a moderate sized state like OH and FL to win IF he wins everything Gore won last time
If Bush loses NH and nothing else he still wins.
just watch OH and FL if they go our way go to sleep we won (i hope)
Different day + different poll + different sample = different results. There is no such thing as an accurate poll. At best, they can predict a probable outcome. The only poll that matters is tomorrows.
Don't put it past the 'rat fraud machine.
Remember- the polls that panicked Republicans were the USUAL suspects= Weekend Polls, where Democrats are always more active. It's Monday:)
Works for me. That puts Bush at 274 Electoral Votes. I'll settle for that.
Spoken like a true democrat would...count New Mexico twice if you win it...thats the ticket to breaking through 270....LOL
/sarcasm
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