Hehe, the guy is so wrong about Florida, too. Here is something I just posted in a related thread about the new FNC Florida poll, which is relevant here as well:
Let's put these numbers (and weekend polls) in context. I'm going to limit this example to Florida, because it is by far the most important of these three states and the only state in which FNC is reporting "bad" news.
According to FNC, their poll of 700 likely Florida voters, taken 10/30 and 10/31 (Saturday and Halloween Sunday), shows Kerry winning 49-44. Also partly over the weekend (including both Saturday and Halloween Sunday), Quinnipiac polled 1,098 likely voters and found Bush leading 51-43. If we combine these two polls together, we get a sample size of 1,798 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4%. Doing the math, Bush has the lead in this combined sample of likely voters polled over the weekend: 48.3% to 45.3%.
Now, let's throw in the Mason Dixon poll that came out over the weekend as well. That poll had 625 LVs, and once they are added in to this sample, three things happen: (1) the total sample size increases to 2423; the margin of error shrinks to plus or minus two percent; and (3) in this larger sample, Bush leads 48.4% to 45.1 percent.
One other comment: I am not including this weekend's Gallup poll, which shows an 11 point swing from last weekend's Gallup poll, because I think that both these polls are outliers albeit in opposite directions (I don't think Kerry actually gained 11 points on Bush in the space of one week, this dog just won't hunt). If you average them together, they reinforce my conclusion that Bush actually leads in Florida by about three or four points, even if you give slightly more weight to this weekend's sample just to be safe.
Thus, it seems clear that even the weekend polls in Florida are showing a small but consistent lead for Bush -- despite the MSM's and FNC's best attempts to scare us into watching their coverage on Election Night to see who wins. Don't get scared, but please vote -- especially if you live in Florida or other battleground states.
Not gonna do it. They will do everything possible to make it a nailbiter or Kerry victory until the truth becomes undeniable. I am not going to let those jerks keep me on pins and needles all night long like they did last time.
The same poll for Pennsylvania has both candidates at 47 and 7% undecided.
This poll for New Jersey has Kerry at 48 and Bush at 43 with 6% undecided.
What kind of person is STILL undecided at this point?