Posted on 11/01/2004 9:24:29 AM PST by Rutles4Ever
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But this doesn't fit in the "We're all doomed" tone of the rest of today's posts....
Thanks for the good news!
For Slate to have this is really good news. They will definitely slant leftward if they can justify it in any way.
Slate has had Kerry up many times over the last few weeks. Each time Kerry is up they put it in their main stories, and when Bush is up they put it in as a regular, unfeatured, article.
I would settle for that number.
Has Slate EVER had Bush leading? Awesome!
It ain't over till the polls close tomorrow evening (if then) The only results I want to know about are the REAL ones when GW wins tomorrow night!
All I want is 271. As soon as I get that, I can get rid of this damn ulcer.
I have done my part I think. I've talked my kerry supporter father into crossing over to the "dark side" as he calls it, and have convinced 10 people to vote for Dubya.
I was in charleston WV yesterday and you couldnt throw a cat without hitting a dork with a Kerry sign. I hope Bush people are working twice as hard there.
Slate always spins toward Kerry, regardless what the polls show. Be encouraged.
Hmm, here's slate's writeup on this:
Analysis Nov. 1, noon ET: Last night we warned that Florida and Ohio were on a knife's edge and that Kerry could not survive if he lost both. This morning we got two polls that nudged both states ever so slightly back to Bush. The only reason we've had these states leaning one way or the other in the last 24 hours is that we decided at the outset of this project to allocate even the iffiest states. When you look at all the data, Florida and Ohio are tossups. By favoring one criterion over another, you can make a solid argument for either candidate in either state. Last night the weight of evidence was heavier for Kerry by three ounces. Today it's heavier for Bush by two ounces. We warned last night not to make too much of Kerry's 299. We'll warn now not to make too much of Bush's 286. Here is the math that matters: If all the states in which the data lean discernibly to either candidate vote as the polls suggest, the election will come down to Florida and Ohio. If Bush takes both, he wins. If Kerry takes either, he wins. Since the odds in each state are approximately 50-50, with a tiny edge to Bush, the combined probability of Kerry winning the election is about 70 to 75 percent.
Just referring to the numbers, I'm sure slate want's to spin it.
the election will come down to Florida and Ohio. If Bush takes both, he wins. If Kerry takes either, he wins
Yes, it can be done if Bush loses one of those, but the probability is small.
Lose OH (20 electoral votes) or FL (27 electoral votes), Bush would need to pick up a combination of these to make up for it:
NM (5 electoral votes)
IA (7 electoral votes)
HI (4 electoral votes)
WI (10 electoral votes)
NH (4 electoral votes)
Interesting thought - could be to get better turnout on their side by scaring them that the other side is winning.
LQ
*sigh* The polls can't open soon enough, IMO.
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