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NEW POLL: Carville's Poll Show's Kerry Losing 2 points over Weekend.
http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_29-31_2004_Survey.pdf ^

Posted on 11/01/2004 7:26:31 AM PST by montereyp1

PDF. Can't Cut and Paste.

Was 49-46 For Kerry.

Now 47-48 For Kerry

Early voting has Bush up nationwide but Kerry up in Battlegrounds.

Not great internals but I like the trend.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: kerryloss; polls
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1 posted on 11/01/2004 7:26:32 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

ROTFL... there goes the DUmmies' last poll-refuge.


2 posted on 11/01/2004 7:29:26 AM PST by Nataku X (Get Informed of the Polls: http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4176)
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To: montereyp1

Might have to do with the fact that, in the battleground states, lots of Dems are voting early to avoid the supposed "disenfranchisement" that they think happened last time. In solid Bush states, the D to R ratio would be more typically distributed.


3 posted on 11/01/2004 7:29:33 AM PST by RockinRight (Bush's rallies look like World Series games. Kerry's rallies look like Little League games.)
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To: montereyp1

Nah - Snakehead is an operative. He's just trying to scare the his couch-potatoes out into the streets tomorrow.


4 posted on 11/01/2004 7:29:42 AM PST by Fenris6 (3 Purple Hearts in 4 months w/o missing a day of work? He's either John Rambo or a Fraud)
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To: montereyp1

Uh-oh, KERRI CAMP SHAKEUP COMING SOON. Perhaps they can get the 9th circuit to delay the election.


5 posted on 11/01/2004 7:29:47 AM PST by mlbford2 ("Never wrestle with a pig; you can't win, you just get filthy, and the pig loves it...")
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To: montereyp1

How that wife of his puts up with snake face is beyond me.


6 posted on 11/01/2004 7:31:37 AM PST by Piquaboy (John F-ng Kerry was a traitor to his fellow soldiers and now his country.)
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To: montereyp1

Yes you can!

Democracy Corps
CARVILLE ¨ GREENBERG
October 29-31, 2004
1018 Likely Voters
Margin of Error +/- 3.1%
FREQUENCY QUESTIONNAIRE
poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
10 G STREET, NE ¨ SUITE 400
WASHINGTON, DC 20002
202-478-8330 (TEL) ¨ 202-289-8648 (FAX)
WWW.DEMOCRACYCORPS.COM


7 posted on 11/01/2004 7:33:15 AM PST by WildTurkey
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To: montereyp1
PDF. Can't Cut and Paste.

The T on the toolbar in Acrobat is the "text select" tool.

8 posted on 11/01/2004 7:35:50 AM PST by VadeRetro (A self-reliant conservative citizenry is a better bet than the subjects of an overbearing state. -MS)
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To: montereyp1

see the battlegroundpoll. Devastating.
http://www.freerepublic.com/^http://www.tarrance.com/files/9936QF-Final-Weekend.pdf

NEW POLL: Tarrance Battleground Taken Through Last Night B49-K45 - JA @ 53%
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1264785/posts


Also
Florida: Quinnipiac (10/27-10/31): Bush 51, Kerry 43, Nader 1
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x13769.xml


9 posted on 11/01/2004 7:40:23 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: Piquaboy
How that wife of his puts up with snake face is beyond me.

She's not exactly a beauty either. I'll be glad when Republicans wise up and dump her. Anyone that could be married to that man could not have any true convictions.

10 posted on 11/01/2004 7:41:14 AM PST by boycott
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To: montereyp1

Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac (10/27-10/31): Bush 47, Kerry 47


11 posted on 11/01/2004 7:41:16 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: VadeRetro
Well maybe the democrats internal poll will turn out right, and the other 60+ wrong.

Still to early to analyze the lat few days, but here goes. Bush took a hit in almost every tracking poll on Friday, big time. Whether these were taken before or after the OBL tape that day, not sure. However, it looks like Bush starting improving over the weekend, which is unusual. So it may be indicating a move toward Bush over the last few days. There was the AP report this weekend, that both internal Reps and Dems polls showed a move toward Bush after the OBL tape.

Maybe the voters were taking that last look at Kerry end of last week, and that is why the polls tightened. Then the OBL tape, and now we see a trend toward Bush, that not all the polls have picked up on yet.

12 posted on 11/01/2004 7:41:23 AM PST by gswilder
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To: montereyp1

You may disregard the numbers for battleground states. Since the poll has lumped them all together, the numbers mean nothing.


13 posted on 11/01/2004 7:42:21 AM PST by rogers21774 (The guilty taketh the truth to be hard, for it cutteth them to the very center.)
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To: mlbford2

Why do you keep posting that? Do you have information?


14 posted on 11/01/2004 7:43:00 AM PST by michaelt
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To: montereyp1

It looks like the dems have put all their eggs in a few battleground states. Bush seems to have gained in dem states like New Jersey, but merely held on in states like Florida.

Either the state polls are wrong, or there is an historic shift. I think the state polls, particularly Florida, are screwed up.


15 posted on 11/01/2004 7:44:22 AM PST by js1138 (D*mn, I Missed!)
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To: montereyp1

Echo! People, this is a prop poll from Carville to his slacker Dems.


16 posted on 11/01/2004 7:45:54 AM PST by Fenris6 (3 Purple Hearts in 4 months w/o missing a day of work? He's either John Rambo or a Fraud)
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To: finnman69

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Quinnipiac can be trusted in NY, NJ, CT, PA, and FLA. If they say Bush is up 51% - 43% over Kerry in Fla, put it in the bank!


17 posted on 11/01/2004 7:46:55 AM PST by moose2004 (You Can Run But You Can't Hide!)
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To: montereyp1

I nominate you for the funniest thread from the new RAT Freepers yet -- touting a Carville poll on FR made me burst out laughing.

You have got to be kidding if you think Freepers are that dumb to pay one bit of attention to Carville except to say even Carville thinks Kerry is a loser!

Go back where you came from but thanks for a laugh!


18 posted on 11/01/2004 7:47:41 AM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: js1138

Bush is going to win Florida and Ohio and pick up some more Gore state -- I believe Karl Rove has nailed it!


19 posted on 11/01/2004 7:48:40 AM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: gswilder
My reasoning is simpler. In 2000, the popular vote and electoral vote broke for different candidates, but they were both very, very close. As of 2000, then, there was no accidental gerrymandering which would throw the popular and electoral votes out of whack with each other, even though the slop between the two looks big when the guy who loses the popular vote (by half a percent) wins the election.

This time around, Bush is polling five to ten percent better in places like New Jersey, Hawaii, Wisconsin, etc. He seems to be threatening to win a number of blue-in-2000 states, including some "solid" ones where it just should not be happening. The corresponding situation does not exist for the other side. Kerry isn't threatening in Georgia or Kansas. Bush is running better, nationally.

If indeed a big shift in voting preference has happened nationally, it will be magnified in the electoral vote. That's what happens. Reagan-Carter, Clinton-Bush, Bush-Dukakis, Clinton-Dole, etc. were not popular-vote landslides. All had safe-to-blowout margins in the electoral college.

Win the popular vote by five percent or more and there simply is no electoral strategy. The states will fall.

(Yes, in theory your popular vote gains could be concentrated in states that were already solid for you, but that's not likely and not what we're seeing.)

20 posted on 11/01/2004 8:04:24 AM PST by VadeRetro (A self-reliant conservative citizenry is a better bet than the subjects of an overbearing state. -MS)
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