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***FINAL*** CAMEC - COMPUTER ANALYSIS MODEL OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE ***FINAL*** 10/31
10-31-04 | Josh in PA

Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

........Bush    	Kerry   	Nader	Others	Bush %	Kerry %	BUSH EV	KERRY EV
AL      1,081,230 	671,538 	14,250 	14,250 	60.7%	37.7%	9	
AK	214,668 	128,358 	17,705 	8,115 	58.2%	34.8%	3	
AZ	984,376 	828,949 	N/A	37,007 	53.2%	44.8%	10	
AR	604,025 	521,502 	10,315 	10,315 	52.7%	45.5%	6	
CA	5,340,714 	6,342,098 	N/A	238,425	44.8%	53.2%		55
CO	1,098,165 	975,669 	45,130 	30,087 	51.1%	45.4%	9	
CT	705,326 	881,658 	28,705 	24,604 	43.0%	53.8%		7
DE	178,960 	219,633 	5,084 	3,050 	44.0%	54.0%		3
DC	33,531 	        216,664 	5,159 	2,579 	13.0%	84.0%		3
FL	3,508,207 	3,202,259 	54,391 	33,994 	51.6%	47.1%	27	
GA	1,606,182 	1,179,187 	N/A	42,417 	56.8%	41.7%	15	
HI	247,879 	244,345 	N/A	12,621 	49.1%	48.4%	4	
ID	362,351 	166,987 	N/A	16,371 	66.4%	30.6%	4	
IL	2,323,137 	2,833,602 	N/A	52,088 	44.6%	54.4%		21
IN	1,540,899 	1,103,327 	N/A	40,267 	57.4%	41.1%	11	
IA      840,978 	807,271 	20,224 	16,853 	49.9%	47.9%	7	
KS	749,881 	481,248 	22,917 	19,097 	58.9%	37.8%	6	
KY	1,086,136 	742,069 	16,738 	14,879 	58.4%	39.9%	8	
LA	1,117,209 	887,256 	14,245 	16,280 	54.9%	43.6%	9	
ME	364,288 	393,337 	19,628 	7,851 	46.4%	50.1%	1	3
MD      990,427 	1,261,588 	27,576 	18,384 	43.1%	54.9%		10
MA	1,136,961 	1,780,242 	N/A	74,800 	38.0%	59.5%		12
MI	2,302,668 	2,354,679 	37,826 	33,098 	48.7%	49.8%		17
MN	1,343,268 	1,323,920 	55,279 	41,459 	48.6%	47.9%	10	
MS	693,712 	470,733 	7,079 	8,258 	58.8%	39.9%	6	
MO	1,394,513 	1,270,676 	N/A	26,921 	51.8%	47.2%	11	
MT	313,797 	184,004 	13,031 	10,425 	60.2%	35.3%	3	
NE	524,723 	278,425 	12,356 	8,237 	63.7%	33.8%	5	
NV      405,026 	367,773 	11,889 	7,926 	51.1%	46.4%	5	
NH	302,590 	308,228 	9,397 	6,265 	48.3%	49.2%		4
NJ	1,584,417 	1,751,378 	44,296 	27,259 	46.5%	51.4%		15
NM	397,722 	367,128 	11,767 	7,845 	50.7%	46.8%	5	
NY 	3,072,429 	4,198,490 	111,860 74,574 	41.2%	56.3%		31
NC	1,860,069 	1,575,506 	N/A	34,703 	53.6%	45.4%	15	
ND	211,063 	119,914 	6,931 	8,664 	60.9%	34.6%	3	
OH	2,904,354 	2,743,956 	N/A	80,199 	50.7%	47.9%	20	
OK	869,148 	512,002 	N/A	13,951 	62.3%	36.7%	7	
OR      800,537 	854,582 	N/A	33,778 	47.4%	50.6%		7
PA	2,636,463 	2,679,419 	N/A	53,696 	49.1%	49.9%		21
RI      209,236 	307,165 	13,378 	5,351 	39.1%	57.4%		4
SC	958,439 	660,879 	13,152 	11,508 	58.3%	40.2%	8	
SD	217,057 	147,183 	4,460 	2,973 	58.4%	39.6%	3	
TN	1,327,809 	1,004,126 	16,539 	14,176 	56.2%	42.5%	11	
TX	4,569,221 	2,822,166 	N/A	74,660 	61.2%	37.8%	34	
UT	614,659 	255,056 	18,025 	13,519 	68.2%	28.3%	5	
VT	135,032 	174,215 	9,715 	4,857 	41.7%	53.8%		3
VA	1,693,700 	1,481,988 	N/A	32,078 	52.8%	46.2%	13	
WA	1,258,821 	1,399,302 	41,318 	55,091 	45.7%	50.8%		11
WV	394,177 	342,568 	6,732 	4,488 	52.7%	45.8%	5	
WI	1,500,290 	1,431,138 	45,099 	30,066 	49.9%	47.6%	10	
WY	129,249 	67,079 	        3,068 	5,113 	63.2%	32.8%	3	

TOTAL 60,739,725 57,322,464 795k 1465k 50.5% 47.7% 311 227

50.48% 47.64% 0.66% 1.22%



TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: avanitynotapoll; awholelottanuthin; baloneyvanity; bogussource; bush; camec; camecisjustmylaptop; camecmeansvanity; election; electoralcollege; electoralvotes; enviouscrabs; freepersripafreeper; frforselfpublishing; ijustmadeitallup; jealousyinfreepers; kerry; lotsofwastedtime; nosource; polls; prediction; pulledoutofmyass; purplestates; sourcelessvanity; votes; wishesinastatformat
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To: mad_as_he$$

Its small consolation. I'd rather face Hitlery
in 2008 if you catch my drift.

MV


121 posted on 10/31/2004 8:00:32 PM PST by madvlad
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To: PennsylvaniaMom
How would you like to be in a state that is solidly Rat like I do?.....Washington.....with two demonrat senators,( thanks libertarians)....

I do think that when we really get organized, some of us...a few thousand...should move away from our despicably Rat states where our votes do no good, to some state that could use a few thousand more conservative votes, such as New Mexico or Iowa...we could get more conservative Senators in too......

122 posted on 10/31/2004 8:01:12 PM PST by cherry
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To: commish


There was also a snowstorm in rural New Mexico that was said to hurt turnout there.. and Nader support fell off in both New Mexico and Wisconsin.


123 posted on 10/31/2004 8:02:34 PM PST by Josh in PA
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To: madvlad
even in the wild happenstance that the Freak gets elected, I think we will have a solid hold on the Senate.....

then we'll see how tough our guys are.....

124 posted on 10/31/2004 8:05:08 PM PST by cherry
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To: Josh in PA

bumping for later.


125 posted on 10/31/2004 8:06:12 PM PST by Betty Jane
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To: cherry

We'll just have to show him what happens in a Republican Senate to a Democrat president who stole the election.


126 posted on 10/31/2004 8:07:13 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: cherry

I could not look at Bill Clinton on TV in his
2 terms. I cannot look at JFnK either. He
makes me ill.

OTOH, I don't see how the repubs can go +3-4
seats if Bush loses.

What's really griping my cookies is that how
can half of the electorate be so stupid/gullible?
Bush should be ahead by 60:40.

MV


127 posted on 10/31/2004 8:08:21 PM PST by madvlad
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To: Josh in PA

Not to bug you for more details, but...was CAMEC around in 2000, and if so, how'd he do?


128 posted on 10/31/2004 8:09:33 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Two days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: madvlad

That's the same question I keep asking myself about half of our countrymen/women.


129 posted on 10/31/2004 8:10:01 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: Josh in PA

And the secret ingredient is...LOVE?!
Who's been screwing with this thing?!

130 posted on 10/31/2004 8:10:05 PM PST by SquirrelKing ("I have to march because my mother couldn't have an abortion." - Maxine Waters (D-California)
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To: SquirrelKing

Your tagline...is that a real statement she made? Please tell me no one is that stupid.


131 posted on 10/31/2004 8:12:07 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: Josh in PA

ping


132 posted on 10/31/2004 8:14:57 PM PST by Lux-In-Domino
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To: Josh in PA

ME is shown going for Kerry, BUT THE EV IS IN BUSHES COLUMN!


133 posted on 10/31/2004 8:16:17 PM PST by Boiling point (If God had not meant for man to eat animals, he wouldn't have made them out of meat!)
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To: jpf

Based on the info I'm getting from Ohio, there is no way Bush loses there. I'd expect Florida's the same. Plus, remeber that estimates of the Panhandle votes Bush missed in 2000 range from 10,000 to 50,000. Those people will NOT be staying home this time out.


134 posted on 10/31/2004 8:18:30 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Two days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: Boiling point

ME has a split EV--3 to the winner of the
STATE popular vote and 1 based
on a congressional district.

MV


135 posted on 10/31/2004 8:18:39 PM PST by madvlad
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To: Josh in PA

Sorry , my bad, I see now that ME splits their EVs


136 posted on 10/31/2004 8:18:42 PM PST by Boiling point (If God had not meant for man to eat animals, he wouldn't have made them out of meat!)
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To: Josh in PA
I think your total popular vote percentages will be very close. I think that you are a little optimistic on the EV count. Either way, I appreciate the work you've put into this model.

Bill

137 posted on 10/31/2004 8:19:46 PM PST by WFTR (Liberty isn't for cowards)
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To: Boiling point


Maine splits there EV's.

2 goes to the winner of the state. 1 goes to the winner of each congressional district.

Right now, I believe BUsh is going to win CD #2 to get 1 EV out of Maine.

Nebraska also does the same thing, but Kerry is no where close to grabbing one there.


138 posted on 10/31/2004 8:20:48 PM PST by Josh in PA
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To: Josh in PA

Now this is a projection I agree with. Almost exactly what I was expecting myself. Have saved a copy to compare with on Tueday evening.

Thanks


139 posted on 10/31/2004 8:20:52 PM PST by Laserman
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To: WFTR

Also, did you notice that the popular vote totaled
140mill? That's got to be nearly 75% of the total
eligible adult population!

Unheard of!

MV


140 posted on 10/31/2004 8:22:29 PM PST by madvlad
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