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Gallup Polls Internals [October 29-31]
Gallup News Service ^ | October 31, 2004

Posted on 10/31/2004 6:34:39 PM PST by RWR8189

LATEST SNAPSHOT
% GEORGE W. BUSH 49  
% JOHN KERRY 49  
% RALPH NADER 1  
Oct 29 - 31, 2004
Based on Likely Voters
View complete trend

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: deadheat; gallup; poll; polls
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To: fortheDeclaration
This election is for, and I mean for, the Vetanas who served this country honorably when I was a little girl.

Please God - GO W. FOR OUR VETS!
21 posted on 10/31/2004 6:42:33 PM PST by Raffus (Thanks to all Veterans for their service to our Country.)
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To: Callahan

Its just the way I feel.


22 posted on 10/31/2004 6:42:35 PM PST by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: RWR8189
Honestly, I'm the less optimistic right now than I have been the whole campaign.

I'm not.

23 posted on 10/31/2004 6:43:16 PM PST by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: puroresu

Zogby's sauce was simmering just right. I hate to say that


24 posted on 10/31/2004 6:43:22 PM PST by southohio
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To: southohio
I guess Zogby's sauce is about right

I suppose we should listen to his endorsement too.

Welcome to FreeRepublic.

25 posted on 10/31/2004 6:43:45 PM PST by Zechariah11
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To: Bungarian

Its a bad poll. No way Kerry gets 100% of the undecideds. If we're generous and assign him two-thirds of those left that brings him to within 3-4% of the President. He will NOT get 100% in the real world. Gallup did a rush poll with piss poor methodology and it shows in their results. 2000 all over again? I think that's unlikely.


26 posted on 10/31/2004 6:44:01 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: RWR8189

this is exactly what the MSM hopes to accomplish - what you are feeling right now. don't let them do it to you. don't have unrealistic expectations either, but don't get depressed.


27 posted on 10/31/2004 6:44:16 PM PST by oceanview
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To: Bungarian

FWIW: I did notice the Bush non-whites at 21%. Taht's more than double his 2000 % (9%). If that number holds, Kerry is in trouble in Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.


28 posted on 10/31/2004 6:44:30 PM PST by CWW (Only a few days remaining -- get the vote out folks!!)
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To: RWR8189

This sucks big time. Gallup is a good poll. The MSM has scored hard with their last minute crap. Same s$$t as 2000. Now it's 2000 redux. It's all a matter of luck when it's this close. Luck and, unfortunately, lawyers. We lucked out four years ago. Hope it happens again. Not feeling very optimistic tonite. I guess this explains the long faces at headquarters today.


29 posted on 10/31/2004 6:44:31 PM PST by ModelBreaker
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To: Bungarian

Yeah, I know that. I was intersted in the demographics. A lot of polls have been showing Bush and Kerry splitting the vote among men within MOE. I want to know if that trend continues here.


30 posted on 10/31/2004 6:45:00 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: Zechariah11

Thanks. I hate to say that about Zogby. But, it appears he is like the other polls at this point. Let's just all GOTV and let it roll.


31 posted on 10/31/2004 6:45:13 PM PST by southohio
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To: southohio
Zogby's sauce was simmering just right. I hate to say that

Sure you do. Look at the CO poll, where Kerry only trails by one, and then tell me why Kerry pulled his ads there. Look at Zogby's pathetic performance in 2002. You can make silly statements all you like, but none of us will know until around Wednesday which of these final polls was correct.

32 posted on 10/31/2004 6:46:11 PM PST by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: CWW

I find it very suspicious that if you look at all of the States that Bush has and all of the States Kerry wins, that it's a 269-269 tie.

I don't think so.


33 posted on 10/31/2004 6:46:19 PM PST by Perdogg (Dubya - Right Man, Right Job, at the Right Time!)
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To: RWR8189
RV is tied, Likely is a 2 point lead for Bush. Also a weekend poll for the most part. Don't worry, we are cool, don't show weakness.
34 posted on 10/31/2004 6:46:26 PM PST by cmsgop ( Bong Hits, Fraggle Rock Reruns and DU is no way to go through Life....)
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To: RWR8189

In your lifetime of following politics, have you ever heard of a Gallup poll in which they had "likely" voters, "registered" voters, and "our assumptions based on trends of the last election on how likely voters will vote" catagories. I haven't. All I've ever heard of is registered voters and likely voters. Bush holds a 2 point lead among likely voters. That is about where I think he's been all year. And that is 2 points higher than he won the last election. I'll take it.


35 posted on 10/31/2004 6:46:32 PM PST by Rokke
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To: southohio

It is amazing a guy more liberal than Dukakis is that close


36 posted on 10/31/2004 6:46:37 PM PST by southohio
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To: jveritas

I think you are correct.

I just got an Email from the RNC asking me to make calls for the President with my "Free Minutes". The interesting thing is that when I clicked on the link, the names I got were in PA. I would have guessed FL or OH if we were in trouble there. Especially since I live in FL.

Maybe it was just the luck of the draw, but it made me feel a little better.


37 posted on 10/31/2004 6:46:42 PM PST by MMcC
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To: jwalsh07; dvwjr; All
The table got messed up, here:

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry

Based on Registered Voters

 

Oct 29-31

Oct 22-24

Oct 14-16

Oct 9-10

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Total

48

47

48

49

46

50

48

48

Gender

Men

46

50

44

54

40

56

44

53

Women

50

44

51

45

51

44

52

43

Race

Whites

42

53

42

55

40

56

41

55

Non-whites

73

22

70

26

69

23

74

20

Age

18-49

49

47

47

51

45

51

47

48

50-64

48

48

48

48

46

50

48

49

65+

48

44

49

44

48

45

50

48

Region

East

56

39

55

43

54

42

55

42

Midwest

48

45

49

46

44

50

43

52

South

45

51

40

56

41

56

45

51

West

47

49

49

49

47

49

50

46

Education

Post-graduate

52

45

55

44

54

42

61

36

College graduate

41

55

44

55

35

63

47

51

Some college

45

51

45

52

43

52

44

51

High school or less

52

40

48

47

49

46

46

50

Income

$75,000 or more

41

57

40

58

43

55

41

55

$50,000-$74,999

42

54

45

53

39

60

39

58

$30,000-$49,999

50

46

49

47

47

48

51

47

Less than $30,000

59

34

56

39

54

39

59

36

Ideology

Conservative

25

71

25

73

19

79

24

73

Moderate

59

36

57

39

54

39

54

43

Liberal

83

14

90

8

85

11

84

10

Partisanship

Republicans

6

93

5

94

9

89

6

92

Independents

48

40

49

44

48

45

50

42

Democrats

91

7

88

9

85

11

90

8

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader

Based on Registered Voters

 

October 29-31

October 22-24

October 14-16

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Kerry

Bush

Nader

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Total

48

46

1

47

49

1

46

49

1

Gender

Men

46

49

*

43

54

1

40

54

2

Women

49

44

1

50

44

1

50

44

1

Race

Whites

41

53

1

41

55

1

40

56

1

Non-whites

72

22

1

69

26

1

67

21

4

Age

18-49

48

47

1

47

51

1

45

50

2

50-64

47

48

1

47

48

2

45

49

2

65+

48

44

*

49

44

*

48

44

1

Region

East

55

39

1

55

42

*

54

41

1

Midwest

47

45

1

49

46

*

44

49

1

South

44

51

1

39

55

2

40

56

1

West

47

49

*

47

49

2

45

48

3

Education

Post-graduate

51

45

1

55

44

*

53

41

2

College graduate

40

55

1

44

55

*

35

62

1

Some college

46

51

1

44

52

1

43

52

1

High school or less

51

40

1

47

46

2

48

44

2

Income

$75,000 or more

42

56

*

40

58

*

42

55

1

$50,000-$74,999

41

54

2

45

53

--

38

60

1

$30,000-$49,999

49

46

1

49

47

1

47

47

2

Less than $30,000

59

34

1

55

39

3

54

37

2

Ideology

Conservative

25

71

1

25

73

*

19

79

*

Moderate

58

36

1

56

39

1

54

38

2

Liberal

82

14

1

88

8

2

85

9

3

Partisanship

Republicans

6

93

--

5

93

1

9

89

*

Independents

46

40

3

47

44

2

47

42

5

Democrats

91

7

*

88

9

--

85

11

--

 

38 posted on 10/31/2004 6:48:01 PM PST by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: RWR8189

I actually am more optimistic, and I am a real poll watcher, and even did some graduate work of polls some time ago.

This weekend, the polls should have gone against Bush (weekend polls go 3-4% against Repubs, weekday polls 3-4% for Repubs).


The fact that Bush is still ahead by 2% on average means he is actually polling by at least 4% above Kerry.

Great news. Now its all about turnout.


39 posted on 10/31/2004 6:48:59 PM PST by Proud Legions
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To: RWR8189

No way Bush is up by only four among men.


40 posted on 10/31/2004 6:49:01 PM PST by puroresu
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