Gallup Polls Internals [October 29-31]

Gallup News Service ^ | October 31, 2004

[RWR8189]

LATEST SNAPSHOT

% GEORGE W. BUSH	49
% JOHN KERRY	49
% RALPH NADER	1
Oct 29 - 31, 2004 Based on Likely Voters
View complete trend

[Raffus]

This election is for, and I mean for, the Vetanas who served this country honorably when I was a little girl.

Please God - GO W. FOR OUR VETS!

[RWR8189]

Its just the way I feel.

[Coop]

Honestly, I'm the less optimistic right now than I have been the whole campaign.

I'm not.

[southohio]

Zogby's sauce was simmering just right. I hate to say that

[Zechariah11]

I guess Zogby's sauce is about right

I suppose we should listen to his endorsement too.

Welcome to FreeRepublic.

[goldstategop]

Its a bad poll. No way Kerry gets 100% of the undecideds. If we're generous and assign him two-thirds of those left that brings him to within 3-4% of the President. He will NOT get 100% in the real world. Gallup did a rush poll with piss poor methodology and it shows in their results. 2000 all over again? I think that's unlikely.

[oceanview]

this is exactly what the MSM hopes to accomplish - what you are feeling right now. don't let them do it to you. don't have unrealistic expectations either, but don't get depressed.

[CWW]

FWIW: I did notice the Bush non-whites at 21%. Taht's more than double his 2000 % (9%). If that number holds, Kerry is in trouble in Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[ModelBreaker]

This sucks big time. Gallup is a good poll. The MSM has scored hard with their last minute crap. Same s$$t as 2000. Now it's 2000 redux. It's all a matter of luck when it's this close. Luck and, unfortunately, lawyers. We lucked out four years ago. Hope it happens again. Not feeling very optimistic tonite. I guess this explains the long faces at headquarters today.

[jwalsh07]

Yeah, I know that. I was intersted in the demographics. A lot of polls have been showing Bush and Kerry splitting the vote among men within MOE. I want to know if that trend continues here.

[southohio]

Thanks. I hate to say that about Zogby. But, it appears he is like the other polls at this point. Let's just all GOTV and let it roll.

[Coop]

Zogby's sauce was simmering just right. I hate to say that

Sure you do. Look at the CO poll, where Kerry only trails by one, and then tell me why Kerry pulled his ads there. Look at Zogby's pathetic performance in 2002. You can make silly statements all you like, but none of us will know until around Wednesday which of these final polls was correct.

[Perdogg]

I find it very suspicious that if you look at all of the States that Bush has and all of the States Kerry wins, that it's a 269-269 tie.

I don't think so.

[cmsgop]

RV is tied, Likely is a 2 point lead for Bush. Also a weekend poll for the most part. Don't worry, we are cool, don't show weakness.

[Rokke]

In your lifetime of following politics, have you ever heard of a Gallup poll in which they had "likely" voters, "registered" voters, and "our assumptions based on trends of the last election on how likely voters will vote" catagories. I haven't. All I've ever heard of is registered voters and likely voters. Bush holds a 2 point lead among likely voters. That is about where I think he's been all year. And that is 2 points higher than he won the last election. I'll take it.

[southohio]

It is amazing a guy more liberal than Dukakis is that close

[MMcC]

I think you are correct.

I just got an Email from the RNC asking me to make calls for the President with my "Free Minutes". The interesting thing is that when I clicked on the link, the names I got were in PA. I would have guessed FL or OH if we were in trouble there. Especially since I live in FL.

Maybe it was just the luck of the draw, but it made me feel a little better.

[RWR8189]

The table got messed up, here:

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry Based on Registered Voters

	Oct 29-31		Oct 22-24		Oct 14-16		Oct 9-10
	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	48	47	48	49	46	50	48	48
Gender
Men	46	50	44	54	40	56	44	53
Women	50	44	51	45	51	44	52	43
Race
Whites	42	53	42	55	40	56	41	55
Non-whites	73	22	70	26	69	23	74	20
Age
18-49	49	47	47	51	45	51	47	48
50-64	48	48	48	48	46	50	48	49
65+	48	44	49	44	48	45	50	48
Region
East	56	39	55	43	54	42	55	42
Midwest	48	45	49	46	44	50	43	52
South	45	51	40	56	41	56	45	51
West	47	49	49	49	47	49	50	46
Education
Post-graduate	52	45	55	44	54	42	61	36
College graduate	41	55	44	55	35	63	47	51
Some college	45	51	45	52	43	52	44	51
High school or less	52	40	48	47	49	46	46	50
Income
$75,000 or more	41	57	40	58	43	55	41	55
$50,000-$74,999	42	54	45	53	39	60	39	58
$30,000-$49,999	50	46	49	47	47	48	51	47
Less than $30,000	59	34	56	39	54	39	59	36
Ideology
Conservative	25	71	25	73	19	79	24	73
Moderate	59	36	57	39	54	39	54	43
Liberal	83	14	90	8	85	11	84	10
Partisanship
Republicans	6	93	5	94	9	89	6	92
Independents	48	40	49	44	48	45	50	42
Democrats	91	7	88	9	85	11	90	8

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader Based on Registered Voters

	October 29-31			October 22-24			October 14-16
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	48	46	1	47	49	1	46	49	1
Gender
Men	46	49	*	43	54	1	40	54	2
Women	49	44	1	50	44	1	50	44	1
Race
Whites	41	53	1	41	55	1	40	56	1
Non-whites	72	22	1	69	26	1	67	21	4
Age
18-49	48	47	1	47	51	1	45	50	2
50-64	47	48	1	47	48	2	45	49	2
65+	48	44	*	49	44	*	48	44	1
Region
East	55	39	1	55	42	*	54	41	1
Midwest	47	45	1	49	46	*	44	49	1
South	44	51	1	39	55	2	40	56	1
West	47	49	*	47	49	2	45	48	3
Education
Post-graduate	51	45	1	55	44	*	53	41	2
College graduate	40	55	1	44	55	*	35	62	1
Some college	46	51	1	44	52	1	43	52	1
High school or less	51	40	1	47	46	2	48	44	2
Income
$75,000 or more	42	56	*	40	58	*	42	55	1
$50,000-$74,999	41	54	2	45	53	--	38	60	1
$30,000-$49,999	49	46	1	49	47	1	47	47	2
Less than $30,000	59	34	1	55	39	3	54	37	2
Ideology
Conservative	25	71	1	25	73	*	19	79	*
Moderate	58	36	1	56	39	1	54	38	2
Liberal	82	14	1	88	8	2	85	9	3
Partisanship
Republicans	6	93	--	5	93	1	9	89	*
Independents	46	40	3	47	44	2	47	42	5
Democrats	91	7	*	88	9	--	85	11	--

 

[Proud Legions]

I actually am more optimistic, and I am a real poll watcher, and even did some graduate work of polls some time ago.

This weekend, the polls should have gone against Bush (weekend polls go 3-4% against Repubs, weekday polls 3-4% for Repubs).


The fact that Bush is still ahead by 2% on average means he is actually polling by at least 4% above Kerry.

Great news. Now its all about turnout.

[puroresu]

No way Bush is up by only four among men.