Posted on 10/31/2004 6:34:39 PM PST by RWR8189
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(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
If you're referring to the Redskins predictor, it failed in '96. Skins lost, The Unspeakable One won.
Many of the numbers do seem off. Anyone know how accurate Gallup's state polls have been in the past? I wonder how the predicted FL to go in 2000. I cannot believe they had Bush up 8 just 6 days ago and now he is down 3?? I do not accept that. Since other polls show GWB's lead is quite large in other southern states, it is hard to believe his overall lead there is only 6.
Probably Democrats claiming to be "conservative" and/or Republicans but saying they're going to vote for Kerry.
They didn't lose in a home game. It's all crap. If the curse of the bambino is lifted the redskin curse is too.
Just saw that rally! Wow! I can't believe all the people! Amazing! Looks like 42,000 to me, too.
Actaully they say 25% of Conservatives going to Kerry. That would me one in four, no f*cking way is that true.
Oh yeah! How could Bush possibly be up by only six in the South???? Virtually every state in the South is double digits for Bush, in some cases high double digits. Only Florida is close. That's a big state but no way could it distort the poll that much when Bush has huge leads in NC, SC, TN, KY, GA, AL, MS, LA, VA, and AR. If they are including TX as a southern state, the six point lead becomes even more ludicrous.
Bad poll, pure and simple.
I guess so. It would not cross my mind to stay home because my candidate was probably going to lose. You can lose by one or two points or you can get slaughtered by 25 points. I'll gladly cast my vote to avoid the latter.
Plus, W is in the habit of doing things which have never been done! He beat Ma Richards when she had a 65% job approval!
But, I read earlier the Skins lost their last home game prior to '96 election.
Just saw W's speech on C-Span in cincinnati - he had the Great American Ballpark FULL!! It was rockin!
What an inspiration our President is. I have FULL CONFIDENCE he will be reelected.
No gloom and doom in our house!!! We will take this one!
Hoo-haa! A fine riposte for a pilgrim here on FR!! Well said!!
Haha. The 49-49 snapshot was from SUNDAY MORNING POLLING. 40 million Baptists and Catholics IN CHURCH!!! Actually, for a Sunday am poll, 49-49 IS ABSOLUTELY WONDERFUL
I'm tired of all the pessimism on our side. This poll's internals are garbage. There is no way that Kerry should be getting 24% of the conservative vote. I'm angry at what I'm seeing as a deliberate attempt by the MSM to tamper with the polling to help their buddy Kerry.
New poster and dont know how to link this,but this might help.
www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1264180/posts
Inside a PA Bush Campaign Meeting Vanity | 10/31/2004 | tort_feasor Posted on 10/31/2004 5:06:18 PM PST by tort_feasor
I don't...but that doesn't mean you don't think about them.
As others have noted Gallop has Bush leading in the South by only 6 pts. That's absurd! I'm in the South, I know better than that especially when compared to Gallop's previous polling from the South. Bush has not lost 8-9 pts in the south.
Okay. I do, too. Still, any thoughts about how good Gallup is in their state by state polling? For example, their last two polls in Florida were Bush +8 (taken 10/21-10/24) and Kerry +3 (taken October 28-30), both taken in the span of a single week. I mean, not too long ago I was ripping Zogby for such wild swings, but I really don't expect it of Gallup. And in between these two Gallup polls is the Mason Dixon poll, taken October 26 to 29, showing Bush +4.
I hope I am not being overly optimistic, but it may very well be the case that MD has it about right and the Gallup polls are outliers, one in each direction. Or maybe the OBL thing is actually working hugely for Kerry, except that one would expect to see evidence of a similar swing (above and beyond the usual tightening in the last week of a Presidential campaign) in other states as well. I don't think the evidence exists to support such a surge, either in the public polls or in the private whisperings of both campaigns.
That's a really good question about Gallup's state poll history. Anyone have any 2000 or 2002 Gallup state data?
"Actully they say 25% of Conservatives going to Kerry."
If they said that then Bush will win in a Landslide!!
Bush is evenly splitting the Atheist/Agnostic/Hedonist/Backslider/Hungover vote!!! Who'd a thunk it??? woo-hoo!
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