Gallup Polls Internals [October 29-31]

Gallup News Service ^ | October 31, 2004

[RWR8189]

LATEST SNAPSHOT

% GEORGE W. BUSH	49
% JOHN KERRY	49
% RALPH NADER	1
Oct 29 - 31, 2004 Based on Likely Voters
View complete trend

[oceanview]

long faces at headquarters, where?

[italianquaker]

THIS IS THE WEEKEND POLL AND KERRY CANT WIN
4MORE YEARS
W2004
CIAO TREND IS A FRIEND

[southohio]

Bush was in Cincy and had 42,000 at 8:00pm in the ballpark...Local TV carried it live...Johnny Bench..Larry Gatlin///Anthony Munoz were all there

[Proud Legions]

See my post above.

[RWR8189]

Well I sure hope you're right.

[God luvs America]

ditto for me...I felt great this morning but then the skins lost today and CNN has the President down in Ohio and Fl. As much as I actually despise the MSM I don't think Gallup is going to skew the numbers.


There is a lot to be done...I pray to God the outcome is the right one...it is going to be a very anxious 48-hours for many of us!! Keep praying!

[jwalsh07]

Bush lost 6 points in a week among men. SI don't belive it. I think Bush will win the testicular vote by around ten points, not the 4 shown here. In fact, I'd bet large money on it.

[shawngf]

Polls at this state of the game are worthless and getting emotionally up or down because of them is foolish. Nothing else that can be done. Just GOTV.

BTW Zogby I believe is still way off. His numbers make no sense. And Gallup is not always reliable. It's track record ain't grand. It usually picks the right winner but the wrong numbers. This time by the LV it picked Bush.

Long faces at HQ? Care to elaborate because much of the other on the ground stuff has been very very optimistic..

[Paraclete]

Turned on MSNBC and heard the most positive talk about Bush winning. I was surprised. Those looking at the internals of these polls see some strong signs that Bush is going to pull it off.

[Coop]

I'm interested in hearing some details/examples. Thanks

[lepton]

It is amazing a guy more liberal than Dukakis is that close?

This has nothing to do with Kerry's stances or record. Heck, what ARE his stances?

This has to do with a drumbeat of hysteria and falsehoods. As example, you hear lots of people parroting that "Bush lied" thing, and it's not even defensible.

[Darkwolf377]

Thanks for the analysis.

Now explain your feeling low. Come on, get it out, ya big lug! Are you basing all of your thoughts and feelings about the race on this one poll?

[HoosierFather]

"What does all of this mean?"

This is pure horse manure. If you look at all these polls in the last few days, they are all over the map. After I saw the hit piece on 60 Minutes tonight, it is no surprise that the polls are being fudged toward Kerry. The MSM wants some drama. I would suggest everyone take a deep breath, make sure we get our vote out, and pop some popcorn for an exciting victory on Tuesday night.

[dvwjr]

Thanks, I got the data. Final one...


dvwjr

[Tester10]

There are definitely some hidden trolls in this thread.

Bush is up 2 to 6 points in all five of the polls released today.

BTW, if you didnt catch the CBS poll, it reports that Bush leads in early voting 51 to 43. That should strike fear into the hearts of the fake Republicans around here.

[puroresu]

Lots of men were wrapped up with sports this weekend and didn't respond to polls. The ones who did were disproportionally Rats who don't go to high school football games, etc. Friday night produced freaky results in the male demographic. It produced a two day FOX poll which had Kerry leading by two among men. This poll seems to have suffered the same distortion, though to a lesser degree since it was three days and not two. Bush will win the male vote by more than ten, easily.

[Rokke]

If the Redskins losing today is really effecting your optimism, you need to reevaluate what guides your life.

[conservativepoet]

You mean one poll (Bush 49-47 LV) based on a weekend results, while Kerry defends states he should be winning, and a Kerry source inside campaign leaks to AP that Bush has the momentum and numbers, has got you feeling at your lowest point in the campaign?

Check your blood sugar, may need a candy bar.

[thecanuck]

Exactly. Also, support for Kerry amongst liberals has dropped and shifted to Bush. Kerry gains 5 points in the south? I know the MOE grows when you start looking at these subsets of data but taken at face value, this sample looks off from previous samples or expectations. That the media is not trying to put it in context to explain the Kerry gains, implies to me they know things either are or were a little hokey.

[DestroytheDemocrats]

"It means that no poll is going to come out with a poll showing Bush well ahead of the margin of error as not to surpress the Democrat turnout."

Well he's not "well ahead." And if my candidate was down by 3 or 4 or 5 it would make me even more determined to vote for him. I would think you would have to be losing by quite a bit in order to make your supporters give up and not vote.