Posted on 10/31/2004 2:21:22 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
WASHINGTON - The 2004 presidential campaign nears the finish line with Florida, New Hampshire and six battleground states in the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes up for grabs, according to a series of state polls for Knight Ridder and MSNBC released Saturday.
President Bush held strong leads in three of the 15 battleground states surveyed -- Arkansas, Colorado, and West Virginia -- all states he carried in 2000. He held a six-point lead in Nevada and narrower leads in six others.
Sen. John Kerry held a six-point lead in Oregon and narrower leads in four other battleground states.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
The leads held by either candidate in 12 of the 15 states were within the polls' margin of error, meaning that statistically they were too close to call. In addition, between 4 and 7 percent of the voters in each state remained undecided heading into this weekend.
The closeness of the race and the large number of states still in play underscored the urgency each side felt as it sent its candidates flying around the country and legions of volunteers out to knock on doors in the hours remaining until polls close Tuesday evening. Voter turnout will be critical to victory, and neither side can afford to leave any supporter sitting out the election.
Bush, Kerry and their running mates will barnstorm the battleground states almost nonstop in the final days -- jumping around what Kerry turnout-strategist Michael Whouley calls a ''three-dimensional chess board'' as they try to hold their parties' base states and win away states from their rivals.
TV networks color-code the map of competitive states red for states that went Republican in 2000 and blue for those that went Democrat.
Bush intends to travel today and Monday to the red states of Florida and Ohio and the blue states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico before returning to his Texas ranch Monday evening. Vice President Dick Cheney was to travel to Hawaii tonight, where Republicans think they have a surprising shot at winning the normally Democratic state.
Kerry planned to campaign today and Monday in the red states of Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio as well as the blue states of Michigan and Wisconsin. Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards planned to campaign in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa today.
Here was what they faced in those states, according to a series of new polls taken Wednesday through Friday night by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research:
REAL BATTLEGROUND
Among likely voters in battleground states carried by Bush in 2000, he led in Arkansas by 51-43 percent; in Colorado by 50-43 percent; in Florida by 49-45 percent; in Missouri by 49-44 percent; in Nevada by 50-44 percent; in Ohio by 48-46 percent; and in West Virginia by 51-43 percent.
Bush trailed in one red state -- New Hampshire -- where Kerry led 47-46 percent.
If Bush holds all of the red states he won in 2000, he would win a second term with 278 electoral votes, eight more than the 270 needed. If he loses only New Hampshire and its four electoral votes, he would still win with 274. But if he loses a bigger state that he carried before, such as Ohio or Florida, where the race remains very tight, he would have to win one or more blue states to keep his job.
Among likely voters in ''blue'' states carried by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, Bush led 49-44 percent in Iowa; 49-45 percent in New Mexico; and 48-47 percent in Minnesota. Kerry led 47-45 percent in Michigan; 50-44 percent in Oregon; and 48-46 percent in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Mason-Dixon conducted the polls of 625 to 800 likely voters in each state from Tuesday through Friday. Mason- Dixon also surveyed Colorado for The Denver Post; Florida for several news organizations including The Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat; Minnesota for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio; Nevada for the Las Vegas Review Journal; and New Mexico for the Santa Fe New Mexican.
Most of the state polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Polls of Colorado, Florida and Nevada had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
''I think Bush has the inside track,'' said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. ``But some of these races are so close we don't know which way they'll break.
Bush was winning support based largely on his image as a strong leader, his stewardship of the war on terrorism, and his ability to appeal to culturally conservative voters on issues such as gay marriage, the polls showed.
Among those who ranked strong leadership as the most important quality in a president, about eight of 10 supported Bush.
Among those who ranked terrorism their top concern, about eight of 10 said they would vote for Bush. Terrorism was at or near the top of voters' lists of concerns in all of the battleground states -- and most of the polling calls were completed before the release Friday of a videotaped message from terrorist Osama bin Laden.
Among those who said moral issues or family issues was their top concern, about nine of 10 supported Bush.
Kerry drew a lot of his support from voters unhappy with Bush and eager for change, particularly in Iraq or in the economy. Among those who wanted a leader who would bring ''needed change,'' about nine out of 10 supported Kerry. Among those who ranked the economy or Iraq their top concern, about seven of 10 supported Kerry.
Bush's numbers have no where to go but up.
Wait a minute... that counts up to 9.... 9 states
I am looking forward to a Bush/Cheney win!
Good news BTTT!
Wait a minute... that counts up to 9.... 9 states
Ten. 3 ("three of the 15") + 1 ("Nevada") + 6 ("six others") = 10.
Cincinatus Wife:
You are a posting machine ! I am a newbie(since 9/11/04) who is very impressed with the number and quality of your news postings. Do you ever sleep ?
We know there's almost a 20 point divide in favor of Bush to this poll question
"Who would handle terrorism better",
so if Bush is leading in that group (this article says 8 out of 10 that list terrorism as an issue), that would translate to very positive development for Bush.
I have to count Nevada??
I think it is very telling that Kerry is leading in ONLY one red state (NH) by only 1%. Also in the blue battleground states like PA, WI, and MI he only leads by a slim 2% margin, whereas, in the red battleground states Bush leads by bigger margins, ranging from 2-9%. And Bush is ahead in three blue states, Iowa, New Mexico and Minnesota. Plus we are up were it counts the most, the big one, FL, and OH. I think we clearly are in the driver seat, BUT WE MUST TURN OUT THE VOTE!! If we do, we win, and we will win BIG!!
Hardly seems fair, does it?
In every presidential election the news media make that statement in the final days.
The most glaring example was in the Reagan/Carter election in 1980. The news media said it was too close to call and it was in fact a Reagan landslide. It was the that I decided to ignore the polling and follow logic and gut instinct.
I think the polls are used by the media to manufacture news and to keep the readers/viewers engaged by making them think it's a close race.
GW's victory will be total. Kerry will threaten lawsuits here and there, but the magnitude of his loss will expose him once and for all as bogus an unelectable. MSM new talking point: Hill in 2008.
This looks great for Bush!
The MSM will only be talking to itself in 2008.
It's dead, Jim.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...
Thank you.
Yes and beyond that, the MSM wants to keep LIBERAL spirits up and going to the polls.
I was talking with my husband over the weekend about the upcoming election. We both believe that the media is deliberately keeping the race closer than it is for the reason of increased viewership for the networks (increased viewership + advertising dollars = big proftis for the networks). If it showed Bush or Kerry ahead in a landslide, nobody would be watching.
We both believe that Bush is going to win decisively.
Bump!
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