Posted on 10/30/2004 10:17:31 PM PDT by Terp
This is the one I'm following. Currently it has Bush taking 52.5 percent of the popular vote and Kerry with 47.5 percent. This is not the same as the "US PRESIDENTIAL WINNER TAKES ALL MARKET" who's numbers we've seen posted here many times.
Whats the trend?
Have the markets closed??
http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html
The market doesn't close, the day's action resets to 0 at midnight Central. The current quote page updates every 15 minutes. If there has been no trading activity during the sample period, there is nothing to report.
Do I read it correctly now as 55.9-44.1 in favor of GWB?
Ping
I don't think the quotes correspond to percentage of popular vote. Rather they represent odds for a bet. You have to bet 52.5 cents to win a dollar on Tuesday when Bush wins, or 47.5 cents to collect a dollar for a Kerry victory.
Is that spike in early October a George Soros on crack moment, or just an "unknown anomalie"?
You may be thinking of the "Winner Take All Market". This is the "Vote Share Market". Two differant birds.
From the site:
Payoffs in the 2004 Presidential Vote-Share Market will be determined by the percentage of the total two-party popular vote received by the Democratic and Republican candidates in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election. For instance, contracts for a candidate who receives 32.4% of the popular votes cast for the Democratic and Republican nominees, will be worth 32.4 cents each .link
This is a "vote share" pool, as distinct from the popular vote winner pool. See the link in #4.
The market says that Bush's share of the two-party vote will be roughly 52.5%.
So the total of the two contracts on each party are the odds that Kerry will win, and Bush will win, respectively.
Congressman Billybob
These are the best number in IEM since late September. Thats a 5 point spread between Kerry / Bush. Something clicked in Tradesports and here.. I hope it reflects reality..
One crackpot lefty bought Kerry at an insanely high pricy right before the close.
No. This one is vote-share market. We usualyl post the "odds of winning" chart. This is the one that was within 0.2% in the last three elections.
John Kerry, the 47% candidate.
-John Kerry, the 47% candidate.-
45% at best. He will have his base but that is all.
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