[AZLiberty]

I don't think the quotes correspond to percentage of popular vote. Rather they represent odds for a bet. You have to bet 52.5 cents to win a dollar on Tuesday when Bush wins, or 47.5 cents to collect a dollar for a Kerry victory.

[Terp]

I don't think the quotes correspond to percentage of popular vote.

You may be thinking of the "Winner Take All Market". This is the "Vote Share Market". Two differant birds.

From the site:

Payoffs in the 2004 Presidential Vote-Share Market will be determined by the percentage of the total two-party popular vote received by the Democratic and Republican candidates in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election. For instance, contracts for a candidate who receives 32.4% of the popular votes cast for the Democratic and Republican nominees, will be worth 32.4 cents each .link

[okie01]

I don't think the quotes correspond to percentage of popular vote. Rather they represent odds for a bet.

This is a "vote share" pool, as distinct from the popular vote winner pool. See the link in #4.

The market says that Bush's share of the two-party vote will be roughly 52.5%.

[Congressman Billybob]

Yes, that particular market IS on vote share. I had to have someone else explain it, but here's what those contracts are for: Dem_52 is a contract that the Democrats will win AND get at least 52% of the two-party popular vote. The other contracts are Dems win with less than 52%. Repubs win with less than 52%. And last, Repubs win with at least 52%.

So the total of the two contracts on each party are the odds that Kerry will win, and Bush will win, respectively.

Congressman Billybob

Click for latest, "The Anti-Kerry, Anti-CFR Ad"

[Remember_Salamis]

No. This one is vote-share market. We usualyl post the "odds of winning" chart. This is the one that was within 0.2% in the last three elections.