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Bush and Kerry in Dead Heat - Reuters Poll (Zogby Battleground Tracking)
Reuters ^ | October 29th, 2004 | John Whitesides

Posted on 10/29/2004 4:34:30 PM PDT by okstate

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a dead heat with President Bush but Bush took a lead in the key state of Ohio four days before a cliffhanger White House election, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Friday.

Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent on Thursday.

The deadlock sets up a frantic race to Tuesday's finish in another tight U.S. presidential election, with neither candidate able to establish a clear advantage or break 50 percent.

"The election is four days away and we are right back where we started, in a toss-up," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry had a good day today."

Bush led in six of the 10 battleground states being polled. He held slim leads in Ohio and Colorado and held his edge in Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada.

Kerry took a slight lead in Florida and led in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the two candidates battled for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Zogby said Kerry had solidified his support among women, Catholics, singles, Hispanics and 18- to 24-year-olds, but had slipped slightly among black voters to about 82 percent.

Democrat Al Gore won more than 90 percent of the black vote against Bush in 2000, and weaker black support for Kerry or a low turnout could cripple the Democrat in several of the biggest battleground states.

Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by three points in the daily tracking poll.

The poll of 1,203 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.

The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with slightly more than 1 percent.

The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Tuesday through Friday.

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 47-46 percent; Florida, Kerry 47-45 percent; Iowa, Bush 45-44 percent; Michigan, Bush 48-46 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 51-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 51-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 47-44; and Wisconsin, Kerry 50-45 percent.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: Nevada; US: New Mexico; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: battleground; deadheat; poll; polls; reuters; tracking; zogby
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"The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 47-46 percent; Florida, Kerry 47-45 percent; Iowa, Bush 45-44 percent; Michigan, Bush 48-46 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 51-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 51-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 47-44; and Wisconsin, Kerry 50-45 percent."

Good grief. This definitely deserves the Zogby Sauce jokes.

1 posted on 10/29/2004 4:34:33 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

Reuters/Zogby -- double-barrelled bias.


2 posted on 10/29/2004 4:36:37 PM PDT by AmishDude (Death penalty for vote fraud.)
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To: okstate

Assuming Bush wins WV, AR, and MO... and Kerry gets OR, WA, NH, ME, and NJ... Bush would win 276-262 with these numbers.


3 posted on 10/29/2004 4:37:38 PM PDT by okstate (I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
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To: okstate
Assuming is for losers.  Remember the "DUI discovery" worked against Bush by a LOT at the last minute in 2000.  Who knows what the 'rats will pull on Sunday night and Monday?  It ain't over until it's over.  So KEEP ON CAMPAIGNING !    Consider copying and emailing things like THIS again.
4 posted on 10/29/2004 4:46:44 PM PDT by FreeKeys (A TRAITOR for President? NEVER! Besides, nutcase Scary Kerry wants to give nuclear fuel to Iran!)
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To: okstate

The wandering of CO by Zogby is freaking hilarious......


5 posted on 10/29/2004 4:47:51 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: okstate

Saucified!


6 posted on 10/29/2004 4:48:47 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: okstate
Zogsauce and his polls are becoming more and more schizophrenic by the day.
7 posted on 10/29/2004 4:52:34 PM PDT by COEXERJ145 (The price of freedom is eternal vigilance)
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To: okstate

I am so sick and tired of polls and threads on polls -- everyone needs to get off their duffs and go vote and quit worry about the electoral college or biased polling!

One more doom and gloom thread or comment and I may be going through the roof on here. This posting of these crap polls along with the doom and gloom comments are annoying at the very least and disgusting as the days have gone by.

I wouldn't believe Reuters or Zogby if they told me the sky was blue -- I would go check!


8 posted on 10/29/2004 4:58:34 PM PDT by PhiKapMom
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To: COEXERJ145
These are not the polls to watch. Here are two good posts on which polls are good and which to watch.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1261205/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1261963/posts
9 posted on 10/29/2004 4:59:52 PM PDT by Ruth C (learn to analyze rationally and extrapolate consequences ... you might become a conservative)
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To: okstate

I do not believe what Zogby is trying to spread.


10 posted on 10/29/2004 5:06:02 PM PDT by harpu
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To: Ruth C

This is the first time that I have read Zogby admitting that Kerry is not getting as high a black vote as Gore did in 2000. In fact he sarcastically dismissed those who had seen the trend of the black voter going in the direction of George Bush. He's now confirmed what others had previously seen. I think that's pretty important.


11 posted on 10/29/2004 5:09:20 PM PDT by Flight of the Phoenix
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To: Flight of the Phoenix
Too many didn't believe it and too many don't understand that the reason for it is many Blacks see President Bush and realize that he does not use Blacks. If you watch him you will see he treats Blacks just as he treats everyone else and that resonates.
12 posted on 10/29/2004 5:14:23 PM PDT by Ruth C (learn to analyze rationally and extrapolate consequences ... you might become a conservative)
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To: COEXERJ145

I'm curious. Your name wouldn't be Vancat at College Confidential, would it? I got booted off of their discussion boards about a month ago for supposedly being too partisan and too hard on a clown named Simba.


13 posted on 10/29/2004 5:18:48 PM PDT by Flight of the Phoenix
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To: Flight of the Phoenix

Nope, never heard of the site.


14 posted on 10/29/2004 5:20:36 PM PDT by COEXERJ145 (The price of freedom is eternal vigilance)
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To: Ruth C




So Bush gained 4 points, and now leads in Ohio?


15 posted on 10/29/2004 5:26:51 PM PDT by Murp
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To: okstate
A word about polls. First, Zogby's record of state polling is awful, so I ignore him. I trust Mason-Dixon. As for RealClear, look closely at their averages. Some of the averages include polls that are two weeks old. And the averages are also somewhat deceptive. Take Minnesota. RCP averages four polls: Zogby, Humphrey, Rasmussen, and St. Cloud, all taken between 10/19 and 10/28. In order, they are Bush +1, Bush +3, Bush +3 and Kerry +7. The average shows a tie. The +7 for Kerry is obviously an outlier, yet it tied the average. And St. Cloud is the only one in the group that is not a professional pollster.

I like RealClear. I check them daily. But look at the guts of their averages before you panic.
16 posted on 10/29/2004 5:30:29 PM PDT by True_wesT
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To: True_wesT

It's Friday, I have a couple glasses of Chardonnay in me, I'll say what you guys want to. "Zogby is a terrorist sympathizer"


17 posted on 10/29/2004 5:35:02 PM PDT by DAC22
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To: PhiKapMom
Post #9, first link is the Horserace blog. It discusses why both Reuters and Zogby are questionable. Gallup is the most reliable and it has Bush ahead.

Folks, Missouri is the microcosm of our country. Kerry has conceded Missouri and is not spending another dollar there. Kerry will lose, PERIOD!

There is not a single state Bush won in 2000 in which he currently trails in reliable polls. There are several states Gore won in which Kerry trails Bush.

This race is not as close in the electoral vote as the mainstream media tries to portray it.

18 posted on 10/29/2004 5:37:55 PM PDT by NoControllingLegalAuthority
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To: DAC22

I certainly don't think that, Sparky. Put down the bottle. Just because he stinks at state polling doesn't make him UBL. His National polling is pretty good.


19 posted on 10/29/2004 5:41:46 PM PDT by True_wesT
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To: NoControllingLegalAuthority

I tend to agree with you; in a "perfect" media world, we'd be hearing about the imploding Kerry campaign. Consider this: the pivotal, final weekend of the Presidental campaign is being fought on J. Francois Kerry's home turf, in states and among voting groups he should have locked up weeks ago. And, despite concerted efforts at voter fraud and intimidation, he has written off Florida! Could you imagine the headlines if Bush was scaling back his effort in FL at this juncture of the campaign? The media hacks would be writing his political obituary. Like an experienced sniper, W is picking off his targets one, by one, and he's playing offense--not defense. Barring an unexpected calamity, I expect the GOP ground game will give Bush an added bump this weekend, and he'll win by 4-5 points on Tuesday--and carry Ohio.


20 posted on 10/29/2004 5:44:26 PM PDT by Spook86 (,)
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