Posted on 10/29/2004 10:36:16 AM PDT by West Coast Conservative
THE WORD FROM A HIGHLY-PLACED SOURCE
I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” A lot of folks want to know who this source is and are suspicious of campaign leaks. Let’s say this information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.
Why is info given to me (and Kathryn)? I suspect that in some GOP circles, Kerry Spot and NRO are seen as a good way to reach the Bush base voters who are plugged into the Internet, keeping up with the news, etc. I think the info gets thrown my way to make sure the base isn't being panicked by the Kerry spin from some corners the mainstream media...
So here’s the news for today.
Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.
There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?
In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.
In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.
In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.
In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.
Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later.
[Posted 10/29 01:24 PM]
This conflicts with newsmax saying Kerry has a lead.
Please ease my fears about this!
Probably a waste of time, but the former Governor of Michigan once made a legitimate run for President. That would be Mitt's father.
http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Mitt_Romney
The son of Michigan Governor George Romney, Mitt Romney received his B.A. from Brigham Young University in 1971, then an M.B.A. and J.D. from Harvard University in 1975. He is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
Prior to being elected Governor, Romney was a cofounder and managing partner of Bain Capital, a Boston private equity firm; the 1994 Republican U.S. Senate nominee, winning 41% of the vote versus Senator Ted Kennedy in the closest election of Kennedy's long Senate career; and from 1999 to 2002 the CEO of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee in charge of planning the 2002 Winter Olympics. He also sat on the board of office supply giant Staples.
Romney was elected Governor of Massachusetts in November 2002, and is among those speculated as interested in seeking the Republican nomination for President in 2008.
Yeah, someone's wrong here!
ping
But go vote anyway.
Vote well and vote often is what I always say.
BTTT!
Ohio is the worrisome state to me. However, from all the things you read about the Bush campaign, you get the sense they feel they have OH locked up too. We all have to keep the faith in Bush and Rove. They have access to 100 times more data than we do in public. They started work in FL, OH, and other key states in 2001. We saw their efforts in 2002. And I think we will see them again. The folks at DU can stay pumped all weekend over their conference call about the Democracy corps poll. However, I'll take my chances on the other 30+ polls that put Bush ahead. What do you think the Kerry campaign is going to say going into the last weekend? Exactly what they are saying. But this is what losers say. What is Bush and his campaign saying? Nothing. Just going about their work in the Gore 2000 states. That tells me everything.
Well you're a sorry analyst, thats for dang sure.
nice to hear.
no reason to let up on the campaigning, though :)
The only incompetence here is in your posts, which have been pathetically wrong for weeks. Hope you'll have the guts to apologize for your pitiful misjudgments on Nov. 3.
Well, since you're here, let me 'splain it to you. There are Dem districts, and there are GOP districts. If a Republican (say it slow, RE-PUB-LI-CAN) does well in a Dem district, the Dem is finished. "Doing well" can be anywhere from winning to being, in some cases, even a few thousand votes behind, but far ahead of where you have to be.
Bush was "behind" Gore in Mont. County, OH, in 2000 by 5,000 votes. But he won the state. If we run "behind" Kerry in Mont.Co. by 2,000 this year, we'll win by six points.
Referring to early vote advantage specifically, not the 587 vote win.
Or, conceivably, "the route back to the White House."
Bush could lose a heck of a lot of states and still win if he gets Florida and at least Wisconsin or one of those states. I played around with the MSNBC electoral vote chart and Bush can lose most swing states and still win, provided he has the 4 votes from HI or NH.
Actually, Bush could lose both Ohio, PA, MI.....and a heck of a lot more and still win as long as he wins Florida.
If he loses Florida, he has to win virtually all the other swing states.
Ohio doesn't matter really at all here.
It is FLORIDA.
Don't know: Cheney said today on Rush that it was basically squeezed in between his "existing" commitments, so I doubt it.
I presume this is based on party registration of those returning the ballots because in NM the interior envelope is not opened until election day (usually after the regular polls have closed).
Otherwise, this is good news because it means the Rats will have to scramble to get their voters to the polls on Tuesday. If it's bad weather and the polls continue to show a Bush lead, they may just say "screw it".
I've been tinkering with the LA Times electoral map, and I think the most probable (hopefully) is Bush winning Ohio and Florida, and losing in all 3 West Coast states, all of the Northeastern states, including Maryland and Delaware, Hawaii, New Mexico, and the upper Midwest (MN, WI, MI, IA, and IL), which makes the Electoral Vote count 274 to 264.
Wait a minute here. I saw an article put out by ABC News that said KErry had a 53-39% lead, or something like that. Which of these sources is correct?
Too bad Floridas is NOT the one that is going to determine W's Future.
OHIO is going to do him/us in.
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