Bush could lose a heck of a lot of states and still win if he gets Florida and at least Wisconsin or one of those states. I played around with the MSNBC electoral vote chart and Bush can lose most swing states and still win, provided he has the 4 votes from HI or NH.
I've been tinkering with the LA Times electoral map, and I think the most probable (hopefully) is Bush winning Ohio and Florida, and losing in all 3 West Coast states, all of the Northeastern states, including Maryland and Delaware, Hawaii, New Mexico, and the upper Midwest (MN, WI, MI, IA, and IL), which makes the Electoral Vote count 274 to 264.