BAD News For Dems: Hawaii, Which Bush Leads In, ONLY Votes GOP In Republican Re-Election Landslides.

RealClearPolitics

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

Hawaii, which Al Gore won by 20% in 2000, only votes GOP in Republican re-election landslides.

Hawaii voted for Ronald Reagan in 1984, in his re-election landslide, and for Richard Nixon in 1972 in his re-election landslide.

These are historical facts.

This must be especially disconcerting news for Democrats.

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

Take a look again at the RealClearPolitics link, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/hi_polls.html , which I posted a couple days ago. Bush leads in Hawaii over Kerry.

Now, combine this with historical context, about Hawaii only voting GOP in Republican re-election landslides, Reagan in 84, and Nixon in 72, and there is some news to be real happy about...if you are Republican, that is.

[massadvj]

While I am heartened by the Hawaii data, this article is a classic example of misreading and misstating statistical aberrations. Just because two events happen concurrently does not mean there is a causal relationship, or even a correlation, between them.

The article suggests that Hawaii voting for the Republican is caused by there being a landslide on the mainland (with a sample size of two previous events). Hawaii voting Bush could have several other, more likely, explanations, to wit: (1) the high number of veterans in Hawaii and Kerry's unpopularity with vets; and (2) Hawaii's sense of insecurity about terrorism being the closest US state to Indonesia and the Philippines, which are bubbling hotbeds og Muslim hatred.

The fact that the polls show it close on the mainland suggests that these other explanations are more likely.

[NordP]

My Mom (lives on Oahu had been having some problems with her Dem neighbor and his putting a Bush Bashing sign out on a communal fence, but on the portion in front of her house at the end of the block - the police were called, and she told the police that she would continue to take down what was offensive to a President in a time of war--especially when her late husband flew 35 missions over Germany in a B-24 liberator, and her son was 101st Airborne Ranger in Vietnam. The neighbor has been such a poop, that I wrote to the Republican party there, to ask for help -- Mom is 83)

When I heard the news last night, I wrote back to the Chairman of the GOP there.

I said:

Wow, when you promise Hawaii's 4 electoral votes...you deliver!!! I hear Vice President Cheney will visit Hawaii Sunday night! How exciting! Thank you so much for bringing home Hawaii for President Bush, and my Mom! Please thank EVERYone there!!! I'll promise the President San Diego! (L.A. and San Fran are hopeless)

The response was:

"we're doing our best ;-)"

LET FREEDOM RING(even if it's from the Dems! in Hawaii's case)

[fizziwig]

There have been posts on FR from DUmmie trolls saying they know many who voted for Bush in 2000 but will go Kerry in 04, but none or few who voted Gore and will now go for Bush.

I think the DUmmies have been suckerpunched bigtime. I smell a landslide. Yeeeehawwwwww!!!!

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

Your argument hinges upon this being a historical abberation, which actually supports my argument. Since Hawaii only votes GOP in Republican re-election landslides, that brings some relevance into this current election cycle.

Bush leading over Kerry in Hawaii, points to this quite possibly being another re-election landslide for Republicans, namely President Bush.

You forgot a third possible expalanation. Reagan and Nixon were in what could be called neck and neck races just before their re-election landslides. We see the same now, with Bush v. Kerry.... and we see Hawaii leaning Bush now as well.

[Reeses]

I'm guessing but it could partly be that Hawaii likes to be on the winning team. Being far out in the Pacific and ignored is lonely. California can afford to be ignored by Bush, and they are, but Hawaii could really benefit.

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

Crashing conservative websites, especially now in order to water down any good news for Republicans and/or cause havoc is quite common behavior for DUmmies.

I smell a landslide as well.

[crazyhorse691]

Good analysis. But not for this post. This post is not aiming to be an in depth statistical analysis, but, rather a different look at divergent datas. Its a zinger, a stop em in their tracks, scare em poopless. I rather like it.

[Freeze923]

The reason for this is the time zone difference. Because Hawaii knows who won the election during a landslide election by 2pm Hawaii time it depresses the losing parties voters who do not show up, or votes for the "winner" instead of the person they would otherwise have voted. Same thing happens in Alaska -- In 92 Alaskan exit polls showed a huge spike up in perot votes after 3pm by which time it was known Bush Sr. lost. Alaskans still could not stomach voting for Clinton.

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

The Dems have gotten desperate over Hawaii recently. They've pulled lots of staffers from other states and are rushing them to Hawaii to 'stop the bleeding' so to say. As well, the Dems, which didn't plan on spending any money in Hawaii on ads this election cycle have poured money into that state in an effort to boost Kerry...at least in the polls.

LOL.

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

Bump.

[neutrality]

This is almost as significant as GOP not winning Ohio means they lose.

[traviskicks]

One other question I had about all these polls is what percentage of Dems adn Repubs have caller Id or blocked caller. I'd wager a good percentage more Repubs have them. In some areas of the country, where there are wealthy libs (conneticut, Rhode Island), the differences might be different. dunno if this factors in or not just a thought..

[EQAndyBuzz]

In 1992 Bush ran for reelection.

This was the result:

Clinton 48.1
Bush 36.7
Perot 14.2

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

Ther thread talks of when Hawaii votes for the GOP & how Republicans end up landsliding to victory when that happens. Bush Jr. leads in Hawaii.

Bush Sr., in 1992, did not win Hawaii, or re-election

[CatAtomic]

Isn't there some sort of political aspects relating to Guam that is changing Hawaiian votes?

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

Bump.