Posted on 10/29/2004 4:37:16 AM PDT by RWR8189
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a dead heat with President Bush four days before a cliffhanger White House election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.
Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll as the Massachusetts senator gained two points on Bush. Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent on Thursday.
The deadlock sets up a frantic race to Tuesday's finish in another tight U.S. presidential election, with neither candidate able to establish a clear advantage or break 50 percent.
"The election is four days away and we are right back where we started, in a toss-up," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry had a good day today."
He said Kerry had solidified his support among women, Catholics, singles, Hispanics and 18- to 24-year-olds, but had slipped slightly among black voters to about 82 percent.
Democrat Al Gore won more than 90 percent of the black vote against Bush in 2000, and weaker black support for Kerry or a low turnout could cripple the Democrat in several of the biggest battleground states.
Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by three points in the daily tracking poll.
The poll of 1,203 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.
Bush gained ground in some of the critical swing states that will decide who accumulates the 270 electoral votes needed to win, leading in five of the 10 battleground states surveyed in a series of Reuters/Zogby state tracking polls.
Bush led in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Nevada, while Kerry was ahead in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. The crucial state of Pennsylvania was tied.
Bush gained a two-point edge in Michigan after being 10 points behind Kerry when the state tracking poll began on Sunday. Bush led by one point in Florida and Kerry had a three-point edge in Ohio. All three of those results were within the margin of error.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with slightly more than 1 percent.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
Amen. Most I would expect is 1 percent pickup. This is all Republican spin this time. Their turnout is questionable but I think Clinton at the last minute will seal it and they will cooperate.
I believe it was to be 15%. Now just imagine where John boy would be without the Leftstream media.
But you know, so many conservatives have been fooling themselves into believing that Dan Rather, Tom Brokaw, Peter Jennings, and CNN don't matter any more because of Fox. Guess they were wrong.
And GOP "niceness" is the ticket to defeat!!!!
I was stating a statistical fact. There is no greater admirer of Ken Blackwell, Clarence Thomas, and Thomas Sowell than I.
Kerry's win or loss in PA hinges on Philly... I'm in Pittsburgh a traditionaly Dem Voting area, (old union labor mindset). So you would think here Kerry would be like God, Kerry signs on every corner etc etc etc... but hes NOT. Kerry will definately show weaker here around Pittsburgh than Gore did in 2000, absolutely no doubt about it.
He may still win allegheny county maybe some others around Pittsburgh, but it won't be by the margins Gore did... For Kerry to win PA he has to carry Philly area by a very very good margin... If Kerry doesn't get the turn out in Philly, or doesn't get the support in Philly the state is Bush's all the way.
Pittsburgh area is suffering fiscal calamity due to democratic policies and other malfeasence, and FINALLY every man on the street gets it. Murphy the local mayor here has absolutely NO support.. not to the point of burned in effigy but no one defends this guy, in fact I don't think I've seen him even do a darn thing to rally the troops for Kerry.
In fact when Kerry was here he had an event that you had to have tickets to get to, and they had kids handing them out on the street to anyone just to fill it. For PA the deciding factor is turn out, and support in Philly. Kerry doesn't own Philly/eastern PA by a large margin, he loses the state.
Here's hoping PA goes to Bush, and I can go to bed early next Tuesday.
Yes, "Kerry has the momentum" will, I believe, be the theme of the weekend and Sunday "talk" shows this last weekend prior to Election Day.
Somebody will probably even say that if Kerry had chosen Gephardt, instead of Edwards (NC being out of play), then he would have had a "comfortable" instead of a "close" win.
So you would think here Kerry would be like God, Kerry signs on every corner etc etc etc... but hes NOT.
Could it be that many union voters are "giving up" on politics because the legacy of liberalism has not helped THEM economically? We have "discouraged workers." These could be PA's version of "discouraged voters."
You bring up a point that has rattled my brain in the recent weeks. Also, add in the improved black vote for Bush and if this is the case, Kerry is going to lose there is just no other way of analyzing these polls.
Two weeks ago? Try five days ago! On the 24th Zogby had Michigan as 52-42 for Kerry. So one of two things is possible Either there has been a 12-point swing over the course of the last four days, or Zogby's numbers are hogwash.
I'm opting for the latter. Maybe Bush is ahead, but there hasn't been a 12-point swing in four days. No way.
That was actually this week. The poll on 10/24 had Kerry by 10. Kerry was up by 9 the next day.
I'd wait for the last Gallup, Battleground, and Time surveys. The race isn't a dead heat - not if the behavior of the candidates is any indication of the state of the campaigns. Moreover given the nature of Zogby/Reuters methodology, I would not be surprised if this poll oversanpled Democrats.
A Funny Thing -- Every time I spell check "Zogby" on a word document it comes up "Zombie"! Hmmmmm!
This mornings Battleground was just released and has Bush by 5pts.
If Kerry wins, it will be the third time out of the last four elections that our country will get what it deserves, or closer to it.
For my children's sake, I hope not.
Dan
(That this election is even CLOSE is to the disgrace of our country, and should worry us severely even if the good guy wins.)
When you look at the numbers there is no way Kerry can win, there is no Gender Gap this time... Women are about 50-50... Men are still Bush by about 10-15% margin... Black support of Bush has doubled since 2000 etc etc etc.... Then you get into the fact that only 60% of those who plan to vote Kerry say they "Srongly or Very Strongly" support Kerry, (vs 85% of those planning to vote for Bush "strongly or Very Strongly" suppport him)... and then add to that that of those who plan to vote for Kerry only 45% or so say they are going to vote for Kerry because they support Kerry, another 40% of those saying they plan to vote for Kerry not because they support him, but because he's "NOT BUSH"... there is no way in hell Kerry is going to win this.
The idea this race is close is almost comical, when you look at the breakdowns there is just no way you can reach that conclusion. Gore was STRONGER in all of these numbers and STILL just barely won the popular vote.. with the help of Bush's mishandling of his DUI.
The 60% to 85% support numbers tell you for Kerry to win he's got to be ahead at LEAST a few points in the polls to even get a 50/50 split... instead he's consistently down. Bush will win by no less than 4% of the popular vote, and frankly I suspect MUCH more than that.
Dems know they have lost the White House... its just a matter of them keeping enough of their followers from getting dejected and staying home at this point. Because if they do there will be a tidal wave of R's voted into office at state, local and even possibly federal levels.
I predict this, IF it is obviously in the Bag for BUSH by 9 to 10pm eastern, you can count on low Dem Turnout in the last few hours in the other time zones, giving not only Bush a bigger percentage win, but R routes in other elections as well.
The battleground states are everything and Bush is doing very well in those states. This election may end up extremely close in the national popular vote, but I believe Bush will win the electoral vote by a comfortable margin. Hang in there and don't be swayed by biased media polls. There are a thousand ways to slant these polls and you can bet that the dishonest media trash will slant them towards Kerry in the next few days. Just get out there and vote for Bush and we'll win this election decisively.
Your comments only hold true IF the national election is within 1% or so. Anything much more than that makes the state polls irrelevant. Virtually impossible for a repeat of 2000 if the national gap is more than 1%.
For what it's worth, by my calculations a very good Bush night (Monday) dropped off today's numbers, and a very good Kerry night (Tuesday) is dropping off tomorrow's number. On a closely related subject,tracking polls are so worthless. The previous Gallup poll (released earlier this week) and the Battleground poll (released today) is, in my opinion, much more representative of where I think the election is: Bush polling around 51-52% and leading by about five points.
I think Bush will win the popular vote too, although it may be very close in the end. Bush has tremendous support in the South and Southwest where population has been growing since 2000. Meanwhile many of Kerry's strongest states have had no significant population growth since 2000. If I had to predict today, I'd say Bush will win the popular vote by 1-2 points.
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