Posted on 10/29/2004 4:37:16 AM PDT by RWR8189
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a dead heat with President Bush four days before a cliffhanger White House election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.
Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll as the Massachusetts senator gained two points on Bush. Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent on Thursday.
The deadlock sets up a frantic race to Tuesday's finish in another tight U.S. presidential election, with neither candidate able to establish a clear advantage or break 50 percent.
"The election is four days away and we are right back where we started, in a toss-up," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry had a good day today."
He said Kerry had solidified his support among women, Catholics, singles, Hispanics and 18- to 24-year-olds, but had slipped slightly among black voters to about 82 percent.
Democrat Al Gore won more than 90 percent of the black vote against Bush in 2000, and weaker black support for Kerry or a low turnout could cripple the Democrat in several of the biggest battleground states.
Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by three points in the daily tracking poll.
The poll of 1,203 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.
Bush gained ground in some of the critical swing states that will decide who accumulates the 270 electoral votes needed to win, leading in five of the 10 battleground states surveyed in a series of Reuters/Zogby state tracking polls.
Bush led in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Nevada, while Kerry was ahead in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. The crucial state of Pennsylvania was tied.
Bush gained a two-point edge in Michigan after being 10 points behind Kerry when the state tracking poll began on Sunday. Bush led by one point in Florida and Kerry had a three-point edge in Ohio. All three of those results were within the margin of error.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with slightly more than 1 percent.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
Not much attention to the latest Battleground poll (8/29).
http://www.tarrance.com/results.cfm
It's a PDF file but lookit the internal numbers! They're devastating for Kerry!
My republican ASS, he has.
This was predicted 10 days ago by a Bush pollster that Kerry would get one last look this week but by Friday the final swing would be towards the President starting today.
And were are the internals for this poll?
There goes Zogby again, acting like his polls are the authority.
I did read that same thing about the last look for Kerry. I just am so disappointed that so many people are supporting Kerry. The MSM is responsible for a great percentage of his support. It is frighteneing to me how much sway they have.
Historically, Z will do all he can for the dems until just before the election, then he will release his best real effort to solidify his numbers for the next several years. Look for Bush to move up to about 52% by election day. (This is because Fred Barns thinks 52%, and I want this to be right.)
"he ain't Reagan"
... and this ain't the SAME America either!
LLS
|
Reuters/MSNBC Tracking Poll conducted by Zogby International (N=approx. 1,200 likely voters) |
||||||||||
| 11/4-6/00 @ | 48 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - | - | - | ||
| 11/3-5/00 @ | 46 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - | - | - | ||
| 11/2-4/00 | 44 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - | - | 3 | ||
| 11/1-3/00 | 42 | 46 | 1 | 6 | - | - | - | 5 | ||
| 10/30 - 11/2/00 | 42 | 45 | 1 | 5 | - | - | - | 7 | ||
| 10/29 - 11/1/00 | 42 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - | - | 6 | ||
So, lets see now, what's the current Polling Score up to now:
MSM has Bush moving into DEAD HEAT: 0 Times in the last month
MSM has Kerry moving into DEAD HEAT: 57 Times in the last month
Looks like Kerry has the Momentum!
Oops, the numbers are in this order: Gore,Bush,Buchanan,Nader,Undecided
Oh yeah, but the MSM is so desperate and in panic that they've thrown all objectivity out the window. When Bush wins, we'll see how the MSM reacts. And by the way, very symbolic seeing Dasshole going down in SOuth Dakota.
People I work with that I thought had common sense have it bad for Bush...they hate him so much. THey will vote for the terrorist supporting traitor and their selfish motives before saving this country. I hate them.
1. Zogby cooks his polls and favor dems 39% to 34%
2. The movement is all in the margin of error and is just noise.
Lets look at it this way.
Z has Kerry up 5 on Monday's polling, so that means the past two are tied. He said yesterday was a big Kerry day, right?
So what are we to assume are the #s? And can we assume tomorrow will be good since Kerry's +5 day drops?
What? I am voting for him and did so in 2000. And voted for 41. Please, have a heart here, there are lurkers, please welcome them, even the newbie African Americans who have just found their way. Don't say things like that to push us away.
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