Posted on 10/26/2004 3:50:25 PM PDT by wagglebee
ABC News reported Tuesday that polling of people who have already voted shows George Bush with the lead over John Kerry by a significant margin, 51% to 47%.
The network reports that this early voting represents 1 in every ten voters who will likely vote through Election Day.
But the poll results "doesn't mean Bush is 'winning' the absentee vote; the difference is within sampling tolerances. And among all likely voters, including those waiting for Election Day, the race is essentially tied: Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday."
ABC's early voting polls also don't show results for key battleground states like Florida and Ohio. Democrats are already saying privately that results in key states look good for Kerry.
You are still missing Oregon, Washington, and Michigan. Try again.
Bush needs to win FL & WI, and maybe one other Blue state. I believe he could lose OH and still win.
Early voting is counted along with the regular November 2 Votes.
The Absentee votes are not added unless the voting is very close.
I hope your mom is happy in Nevada!
The campaign is pushing for Porter, who is my congressman also. He is an incumbent and a good guy running against a carpbetbagger, Gallagher. Porter, like most congressmen, is expected to win comfortably.
I waited for early voting to come to my neighborhood library. Cast my votes for all the good guys and gals, and left - the whole thing took 5 minutes and there was no line. Nice folks staffing the event, too!
Keep the faith!
Oct. 26, 2004-- While the 2004 election is locked in a virtual dead heat, for nearly one in 10 likely voters it's all over but the counting: They've already cast their ballots.Nine percent of "likely" voters in the ABC News tracking poll say they've voted for president, either by absentee ballot or early voting, a number that's jumped in the last week. Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry. [snip]
There's been a recent jump in early voting: The number of registered voters who say they've already voted has risen from 1 percent in the first three weeks of ABC's tracking poll, through last Thursday, to 7 percent now. It reaches 9 percent when computed among the ranks of likely voters only.
Early voting is more prevalent in the West than in other regions. (Oregon is one reason — all voting there is by mail — and there's high absentee voting in several other Western states.) Early voters are more likely to be older, women and following the race very closely. They're also a bit more likely to be Republicans than Democrats.
So, this poll only used about 5 people per state. (They forgot OR, too)
In other words... CRAP
But that won't deter the chicken littles.
Thanks for the nice "aloha" regarding my Mom. She loves Henderson and has found a couple of good Hawaiian food joints to keep her from missing the Islands. She also won $150 on a nickel machine last week at Green Valley Ranch and was thrilled..promptly cashed out.
I told her that she won because she did her duty by voting early for 'W'. Good things happen to good people.
By the way, her neighbor buds are totally in the 'R' column this year and fly flags every day of the week to support our brave troops and our Country. Something Kerry just doesn't dig.
So if it turns out that Bush was an AWOL retarded draft-dodging pot-smoking giving-terrorists-hundreds of tons of explosives-nincompoop, it's too late. Our votes will be counted even if we're all hit by a dump truck tomorrow morning.
Methodology
This poll was conducted Oct. 22-25 among a random national sample of 2,414 adults, including 2,084 registered voters and 1,666 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.9% of the 1666 LV = 150 voters..... Yep a large sample to say the least......
Our votes will be counted even if we're all hit by a dump truck tomorrow morning.
I certainly do. If he hadn't made a dive to get out of the way of the truck and its lost load, he'd be a dead man.
how can abc get the early voting results before election day? is this proper? something sounds fishy.
When do we get worried at what DUM-o-cRATS say! They are spinning, spinning, spinning--of course!
You're right.
This is turning out to be an ugly election courtesy of the Demoncrats.
I wouldn't give spit on the veracity of polls. They either send you to the heavens on euphoria...or to the dregs of hell with depression.
Nov.2nd is the prize, have fun with the polls but don't go overboard.
Or, perhaps better, the difference is not statistically significant.
(All of this leaves aside, of course, the uncertainties inherent in assuming that the sample population is the same as the general voting public....)
Enough already! Let's light this candle!
I don't see much good news in the article.
Yup and I stood in line for two and a half hours on Sunday, with my wife to vote a straight Republican ticket spanning over 12 touch screen "pages." Surrounded by RATS....but everybody was "cordial." Of course they thought we were with them! We said we were both high school teachers, so I guess the assumption was a natural one. I never let 'em think differently. I just love to listen to the "real deal" when the RATS think the moment is safe.
I think he is going to win all of them, and a few others that may come as surprises.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.