Posted on 10/26/2004 3:50:25 PM PDT by wagglebee
ABC News reported Tuesday that polling of people who have already voted shows George Bush with the lead over John Kerry by a significant margin, 51% to 47%.
The network reports that this early voting represents 1 in every ten voters who will likely vote through Election Day.
But the poll results "doesn't mean Bush is 'winning' the absentee vote; the difference is within sampling tolerances. And among all likely voters, including those waiting for Election Day, the race is essentially tied: Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday."
ABC's early voting polls also don't show results for key battleground states like Florida and Ohio. Democrats are already saying privately that results in key states look good for Kerry.
Hmm.. That's not as bad as I thought it was.. Actually I figured it would be worse than that.. 54-45 isn't too bad for it to be 51-47.
Considering the Dems scarign people in the votes with "Vote now or they'll slash your tires on Nov 2nd" campaign.
That's not too bad.
wisconsin does
We have more states to add, including CA - that could really bring it around to Bush's favor. Howlin posted all the Early voting states a few posts back. (I don't know how to post tables)
Yes Nevada, a battleground State, does indeed have early voting. My mom lives their and was thrilled to get calls from both Laura Bush and, again today, from Barbara Bush urging her to vote early. Barbara asked her to vote for Potter?..assume he or she is running for Congress.
My Mom went to her local mall last week and indeed voted for the next President of the United States, George W. Bush. Not bad for an 84 year old that knows bs about social security when she sees it.
This is all meaningless now. Everything will change with a pre-election terrorist attack this weekend ... or perhaps on election day. And we are not Spain.
BUSH 25,916,482 : 53.11%
GORE 22,878,768 : 46.89%
So again, Bush is trailing in the GOTV effort by 2% at this point in time, if he is now only drawning 51% of the early vote. Lets hope the last 72 hours for Bush GOTV surpasses Kerry.
Texas B 3,799,639;G 2,433,746
Georgia B 1,419,720; G 1,116,230
Florida B 2,912,790; G 2,912,253
North Carolina B 1,631,163; G 1,257,692
Iowa B 634,373; G 638,517
Nevada B 301,575; G 279,978
Colorado B 883,748; G 738,227
Tennessee B 1,061,949; G 981,720
Virginia B 1,437,490; G 1,217,290
West Virginia B 336,475; G 295,497
Alabama B 944,409 G 695,602
Maine B 286,616 G 319,951
Alaska B 167,398 G 79,004
Nebraska B 433,862 G 231,780
Arizona B 781,652 G 685,341
Arkansas B 472,940 G 422,768
New Mexico B 286,417 G 286,783
California B 4,567,429 G 5,861,203
North Dakota B 174,852 G 95,284
Oklahoma B 744,337 G 474,276
Hawaii B 137,845 G 205,286
Indiana B 1,245,836 G 901,980
Utah B 515,096 G 203,053
Vermont B 119,776 G 149,022
Kansas B 622,332 G 399,276
Bush: 25,819,716 = 53.02%
Gore: 22,881,759 = 47.98%
WV has early voting but I thought the ballot boxes were to remain sealed until election day. So, how would they know?
What it looks like to me is that, if these exit polls are correct, Bush is only down 2% from his 2000 numbers in these states. HOWEVER, these numbers don't factor in the nearly 2,000,000 votes that Nader and others got from these states alone. That makes it a different ballgame, probably Bush 52.5%, Kerry 46%, Nader 1%, Other .5%.
Now, since this is a margin of error problem since it's an exit poll, what this means is that Bush is running just slightly better or the same as he did in 2000. And remember, the Democrats have REALLY pushed early voting this year.
I would say that for Bush to be up by 4% among 1/10th of the electorate at this time is a pretty good sign he's not going to lose BIG. So now we know we're dealing with anything from a Kerry squeaker to a Bush semi-landslide.
You know, I really should do a battleground state analysis of this.
Josh,
Almost all states have some form of early voting. Here in CA, a good-size chunk of the electorate votes absentee. If one had mailed their ballot, they would have told Gallup that they "had already voted."
WV has early voting but I thought the ballot boxes were to remain sealed until election day. So, how would they know?------
No, they aren't COUNTING votes yet. This is an exit poll done. They call random people and say "have you voted yet," and those that have they extrapolate these numbers from.
Most states have a form of early voting through absentee ballots. If I had sent in my absentee ballot, I would have told a pollster that "I had already voted."
I don't think this list is complete, but it does include the following states:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Louisiana
Maine
Michigan
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Washington
Source:
http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legman/elect/absentearly.htm
West Virginia
But still, I think if he pulls out FL and one other Blue state from 2000, he's a winner.
Isn't this ABC number of "already voted" a small subsample of their poll -- something like 100 to 200 voters? The margin of error on this thing might be around + or - 7%, making a deep state analysis on this an exercise in futility.
If you can find a poll with 600+ folks who have "already voted" or can combine several surveys with an "already voted" subsample, then you might have something worthwhile to look at.
Right, but so do California, Oregon (statewide), Washington, and Michigan. I haven't actually sat down and figured out whether the 30 states that allow early voting are more red or more blue than the country nationally. My guess is that they are slightly red in EV count but at least slightly blue in actual population.
That I don't know, but if so, yes it would be a very small sample.
You are missing California, Oregon, Washington, and Michigan. Try again.
Bush will win by a landslide in Texas.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.