Posted on 10/25/2004 5:55:04 PM PDT by 20mm lib babies in city dumps
Forget the swing states: It's the swing set that counts By Greg Toppo, USA TODAY Pundits come and pundits go, but one group has quietly predicted the winner of the presidential election every four years since the Eisenhower administration: kids.
Polling experts say kids' votes reflect their parents' views, but a Gallup official says the results are irrelevant because the poll was not random. By Tim Dillon, USA TODAY
Most political junkies won't give it the time of day, but the Weekly Reader presidential poll of schoolchildren has pegged every winner since 1956.
This year's winner? George W. Bush — in a landslide.
Most polls of adults put Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry neck-and-neck. But this one wasn't even close: Bush got 65% of kids' votes, while Kerry got just over 33%, says Weekly Reader editor Mia Toschi.
She says Bush's emphasis on terrorism and security won votes. That sentiment was echoed by Patty Spiers, a second-grade teacher in Tarpon Springs, Fla., who says the GOP's security message resonated with her 7-year-olds. "From what I heard from my children, the kids who are for Bush, their parents say, 'Well, Bush will keep us safe.' " The wee Kerry voters tell her, "We'll get better health insurance."
Polling experts say kids' political views often reflect those of their parents. "You would expect the results of a poll of children to look just like the poll of adults," says Cary Funk of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
Voting was open to kids in first through 12th grade. Students could vote in class, via the Internet or by dialing an 800 number. Toschi says 327,707 kids in all 50 states cast ballots.
But even a sample size of more than a quarter-million students is "irrelevant," says Frank Newport of the Gallup Poll. He says polls must be truly random to be accurate.
Other kids' polls have picked Bush — one by children's publisher Scholastic sees a 52% victory. Channel One, the in-school TV network, gave 55%.
Daily Reader? Never heard of it.
While polls like these are fun, one must differentiate between "coincidence" and "correlation."
An excellent point.
I think that is a reflection of what the children are hearing at home.
ChannelOne (I think it's cable in the classroom) had a poll of 1.4 million kids across the country after having mock debates. Bush won 55-40 and overwhelmingly in the electoral college.
Kerry only won 10 states. California, Hawaii and the rest in the Northeast.
I don't think they do, but this is good news!
The article states "But even a sample size of more than a quarter-million students is "irrelevant," says Frank Newport of the Gallup Poll. He says polls must be truly random to be accurate."
What???? From what this article reads I would say that with a history of being right for the past 50 years this poll is accurate enough for me!
Yep.
Well, they say that you learn everything you need to learn in life by 1st grade. Guess maybe these kids are on the right track. 8^)
The Daily Reader is a children's version of the Daily Worker.
what about the Halloween mask poll?
Daily Reader is a news publication read by tens of millions of students for generations. They poll students all over the country every election. This poll has never been wrong!!!!!!
If I remember right CHannel One slants about like MTV as well! I remember them being totally in love with Clinton.
Amen
This is especially important when one understands that most of their teachers are probably supporting Kerry.
Pray for W and Our Troops
Exactly.
Most Democrats are at best, politically illiterate.
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