Posted on 10/23/2004 7:46:53 AM PDT by bcatwilly
Just a heads up that looking back at the previous Columbus Dispatch Ohio polls, I would fully expect their latest one to be in the paper tomorrow. This a mail-based poll where they start on a Wednesday and go through the Friday of the following week (10 day period). So I am assuming that a poll released tomorrow will have been conducted from October 13-22 based on prior polls.
I know this is maily for us poll junkies who are hawking over the next Ohio results :)
For context so that nobody gets too crazy depending on the poll result tomorrow. The last Dispatch poll had Bush up 51-44, which the first lead that he had opened during this election. But this one had been performed from 9/22-10/1, which means that the Kerry first debate "bounce" hadn't registered. However, this latest poll would have been timed (10/13 through 10/22) such that Bush's third debate "bounce" from the Mary Cheney mess wouldn't be registered in the front end of the poll I would think.
So bottom line is that I hope it shows Bush with at least some sort of lead, but I can't imagine it showing anything worse than basically a tie for Bush.
And Bush is certainly giving it his all to get Ohio down the final stretch it appears:
"Bush’s appearance yesterday is the beginning of a final blitz for Ohio’s 20 electoral votesduring the next 10 days. Bush has scheduled rallies Wednesday in Lima and Dayton and Thursday in Youngstown and Cleveland."
Well, I am not from Ohio, but it would seem from afar that with Dayton, Youngstown and Cleveland he is certainly going after the Democrat strongholds in the state, not defending his own turf (Cincinnati and Columbus). There are two strategies in politics: (1) rally your base (2) take votes from the other guy. Bush seems to have little need to do #1 and is now doing #2. All good. Pray for Ohio!
So I am assuming that a poll released tomorrow will have been conducted from October 13-22 based on prior polls.
If thats the case then it will at least show polling AFTER BUSH has campaigned there yesterday!!PLUS he is returning with Arnold next weekend!!! Here is a rundown of polling and it shows Ohio tied...but again most polls somewhat lean DEM, in my opinion.
Ohio ( 20 Electoral Votes)
>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 50.0, Gore 46.5, Nader 2.5 (Bush +3.5)
Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
RCP Average | 10/14-10/21 - - 47.4 47.4 Off Ballot TIE
Scripps | 10/17-10/21 358 LV 5.3 46 50 - Kerry +4
Gallup | 10/17-10/20 706 LV 3.5 47 48 1 Kerry +1
FOX News | 10/17-10/18 800 LV 3.5 49 44 - Bush +5
Rasmussen | 10/15-10/21 537 LV 4.0 50 46 - Bush +4
SurveyUSA | 10/16-10/18 698 LV 3.8 47 49 - Kerry +2
Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 625 LV 4.0 46 45 - Bush +1
ABC News | 10/14-10/17 789 LV 3.5 47 50 - Kerry +3
Good observation. Ditto. "Pray" ? You better believe I am.
It is a "mail-based" poll remember, so yesterday's appearance by President Bush shouldn't have any impact. But I would imagine that this poll will show Kerry in essentially his best position that he can hope for after being there so much, so it will be interesting to see the result.
"It is a "mail-based" poll remember, so yesterday's appearance by President Bush shouldn't have any impact."
Good to know! Thanks for this info.
My point being that if all Kerry could do by living in Ohio for 2 weeks was bring it to a "dead heat" where he may or may not win IF the election were held today, then I like our chances when Bush storms through there next week and Arnold etc. bring in support :)
I still don't get Bush' 17 day absence from Ohio??!! What was that all about? Am I missing something here? Everyone said, "He doesn't need to go to Ohio because his internals show it's a lock. So, now what?
wonderful! Good analagy! I really feel those undecideds are going to lean toward Bush! My daughter is a NV college student and she said early on with all of the be-headings and Kerry debate wins (not really ALL of them)...that her college was leaning more Kerry but now it is leaning Bush...this is her opinion...I think this kind of follows a trend that as we get into the days before Nov.2nd MORE (hopefully) that we undecides start to go Bush! Hope so! What does anyone else out there think???
I don't believe it is a "lock", but you have to trust that the Bush campaign knows what it is doing. My high level take is that Bush has poked quite a few holes in Kerry's flank, while still leaving himself time to sure up Ohio. I doubt they would quit coming without having a pretty good idea what they were up to. He came yesterday and will be there, along with others, the rest of the way. Come home Ohio!
My husband received this poll in the mail 2 days ago. It has to be returned by October 28.
We found the questions to be slanted. Some of them, no matter how you answer, gives a negative impression of President Bush.
For example:
All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction or do you fell that things are off on the wrong track?
Right direction
Wrong track
My husband could answer things are off on the wrong track due to the moral decay of our country but with George W. Bush as President we are headed in the right direction.
I'm from the Buckeye state and I can tell you that John Kerry's little "stunt" this past week has not endeared him to any of my neighbors. I currently reside in Red State Virginia, but I can tell you that there are a following things that FReepers need to understand about Ohio.
1) The Dayton Daily News leans heavily in favor of the Democrats. They bought the Journal Herald which was more favorable to Republicans. The DDN has in the past endorsed Republicans like John Boehner. (My Dad nearly fainted when that happened.)
2) Dayton, Cincinnati, Youngstown, Cleveland,Toledo, Columbus, and
Akron have a large Catholic base. These aren't just any Catholics, they are the devout Catholics.
3) In the rural and suburbs, the Catholic influence is almost non-existent. That's where the Evangelical Christians hail from.
4) Cincinnati and Dayton are both very conservative cities.
5) A lot of my friends are ticked off about how Cincinnati has been portrayed in the media. They blame that squarely on the Liberal media bias. Many of my friends in Cincy have never voted before. They are all voting for President Bush. The appearance of Jesse Jackson in Cincy a few years ago really pissed off more folks than any of you can imagine.
6) Most of the Union leaders in Ohio are backing Kerry, but their rank and file tend to vote for the candidate that supports their rights to drink beer, hunt, and protect America without permission.
7) If saying the word "Liberal" is bad, just say the words "United Nation" and "France". I've never seen an area of the world that hates France more than my beloved Buckeye state.
8) Canadians are a big factor for many of my relatives in Sandusky. Most people view Canadians as imbeciles that are too lazy to work. If Canada supports John Kerry, they'll vote to support the American candidate.
And the most important factor for many Buckeyes:
If you're going to send our Troops into harms way, YOU BETTER DEFEND THEM WITH ALL YOUR MIGHT.
Being anti-American isn't something that plays well in Ohio.
Oops, then it sounds like they are probably releasing one on the Sunday before the election, not tomorrow. Unless they are doing both :) Oh, well.
I'm surprised there haven't been any polls (maybe they are yet to come) about that whole stupid goose hunting fiasco. I have to wonder if it dod not look like a phony ploy to many OH voters. Maybe it will end up hurting Kerry in the end.
I currently live in central Ohio, originally from Dayton --there is no way Dayton is considered conservative - that city has not voted for GOP for any leadership positions since I can remember.
That said, I think we'll take Ohio
6) Most of the Union leaders in Ohio are backing Kerry, but their rank and file tend to vote for the candidate that supports their rights to drink beer, hunt, and protect America without permission.
My father-in-law is this Ohio union rank and file guy exactly, yet he's voting for Kerry even when it goes against his entire personal life.
I don't get it, and there's no persuading him. He contends that they 'all', meaning union guys, are voting Kerry. Of course that's not entirely accurate, but some of these guys who've lived under the union thumb so long just may not be able to pull the lever any other way.
I'm praying for the best, and hope the President will take Ohio.
Dayton is considered a "conservative" city, but not what I would consider conservative in it's voting patterns. Thanks for allowing me to clarify it.
I have a 4 1/2 minute tape of kerry's various positions. Would you like a copy? It is an attachment. Also if you have the energy, you might think about sending this to as many local talk show hosts as possible in your area. I have sent inquiries to as many national shows as I can think of.
One of my brothers registered to vote for Kerry. However, the rest of my family got around to him and he voted absentee. My mom happily mailed it for him.
He is a union member. My Dad asked him the following question:
"Is President Bush responsible for you losing your job? When you were given an opportunity to have college paid for you so you could specialize in another career, was he around when you said no"?
OUCH! LOL!
I have two union brother-in-laws both voting for Bush, and a brother voting first time for Bush, and two sisters voting first time for Bush, and dad is reliably Republican. Plus wife and I both voting Bush. Only my brother's wife is sadly voting Kerry and is a lost cause.
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