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MSNBC - Frank Luntz says - if the Prez is not up by at least 3 points in the Polls, he will lose...

Posted on 10/19/2004 7:39:42 PM PDT by TBBT

When asked - Frank said that the President has the momentum at the moment in the national polls. However, the race is really close in the Electoral College.

He said that due to increased voter registration and the last remaining undecided voters - who tend to break towards the challenger - he believes that Bush will need at least a 3 point lead in the popular vote (national polls) to win enough battle ground states to win the electoral college.

He states that conventional wisdom says it's one thing to register a lot of new voters, but it’s another to get them to the polls. However, he said he thinks this year is going to be different and therefore he is predicting a record turn out. He says this factor will favor Kerry, making up ground for Kerry by about 0.5%. He says that the remaining undecided voters breaking for the challenger will give Kerry another 2.5%.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: frankluntz; predictions
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To: TBBT

well, there's a sunburst of an original thought.


21 posted on 10/19/2004 7:50:36 PM PDT by smonk
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To: BCrago66

well hopefully he is right because the pres is up 7 in national polls
w2004
ciao


22 posted on 10/19/2004 7:51:12 PM PDT by italianquaker (CATHOLIC AND I VOTE)
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To: TBBT

I think Frank IS factoring in fraud when he said the "new voter registration" will give Kerry a .5% edge and undecideds will break for Kerry giving him an additional 2.5%...

These are code words for "You need a cushion to overcome the multiple votes from voter fraud from the Dems"


23 posted on 10/19/2004 7:51:56 PM PDT by Illinois Rep
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To: BCrago66
He is the ONLY pollster that I've ever heard that has said the undecideds break for the challenger. He may have 20 years experience, but that doesn't mean he's right. John Kerry has 20 years as senator, and we know he is a frickin liar.
24 posted on 10/19/2004 7:52:00 PM PDT by rintense (Results matter.)
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To: TBBT; All
Folks...the President is in the toughest fight of his political life. Granted, some of the National polls are looking good, and yes some of the internals are good; but this is not a conventional election, the electorate is evolving...the Greatest Generation is evaporating, rapidly. They understood the need for the US to be committed in building a freer world. The baby boomer's are a huge influence in this race and most don't have the stomach for this war on terror.

Bush has trouble in New Hampshire, Arkansas, Ohio, and Florida. Add in the Democrat voter fraud and its shaping up a razor thin victory, for either guy.

Now the question is...what can we do about this?
25 posted on 10/19/2004 7:52:16 PM PDT by Heff ("Liberty is not America's gift to the world, it's the Almighty's gift to humanity" GW Bush 4/12/04)
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To: TBBT
IOW, given the margin of error, Luntz's headline is:

Bush will win if he's ahead.

26 posted on 10/19/2004 7:53:04 PM PDT by sinkspur ("If you're always talking, I can't get in a word edge-wise." God Himself.)
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To: TBBT

There is a reason that Luntz is doing commentary on MSNBC rather than polling for the GOP like he used to do.

Ialways considered him to be rather loosly wrapped.


27 posted on 10/19/2004 7:53:06 PM PDT by quidnunc (Omnis Gaul delenda est)
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To: dagnabbit

Are you flip-flopping? ;)


28 posted on 10/19/2004 7:53:39 PM PDT by rjmeagle (Bush in 2004, Guiliani in 2008!!! Conservatism Rules!!! God and Family!!!)
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To: TBBT

I agree. The President was up by 3 points last time--and it ended up even. By the time you add democratic voter fraud,,,,and an unusually large uneducated/union/minority/gay/muslim/moron turnout--I won't feel confident unless the President is up by 5 points!


29 posted on 10/19/2004 7:53:55 PM PDT by stockstrader
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To: TBBT
He says this factor will favor Kerry, making up ground for Kerry by about 0.5%. He says that the remaining undecided voters breaking for the challenger will give Kerry another 2.5%.

Let's see, women and blacks are not polling in accordance with conventional wisdom and conventional wisdom doesn't include the relatively new Republican get out the vote machine. Somehow I hear Luntz, after a Bush victory, that he was really leading by more than 3 thereby protecting his flawed theory.

30 posted on 10/19/2004 7:54:06 PM PDT by Dolphy (It's not a plan, it's an echo)
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To: dagnabbit
Luntz may be right. Then again, he may be wrong.

You are absolutely right. Luntz is either right, or wrong. Same for me. Then again, you may be wrong. In that case, who would be right?

Who's on first? :-D

31 posted on 10/19/2004 7:54:24 PM PDT by NewLand (Pajama Patriot on patrol at Free Republic since the 20th Century!)
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To: TBBT
Frank Luntz says - if the Prez is not up by at least 3 points in the Polls, he will loose...Donald Rumsfeld on the Breck Girl.
32 posted on 10/19/2004 7:55:00 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Global Test. Didn't need tax cut. Give Iran nuclear fuel. Never waivered on Iraq.)
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To: TBBT
He says that the remaining undecided voters breaking for the challenger will give Kerry another 2.5%.

Actually they were going to break for Kerry before they broke for Bush. This is do to the extended two week polling time set up to facilitate the Kerry fraud plan. In the passed such fraud had to be crammed into a 16 hour window but with the extended window the undecided can slow down long enough to get the spin out of their heads and make an informed decision.

33 posted on 10/19/2004 7:55:50 PM PDT by Taxbilly
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To: TBBT
He says this factor will favor Kerry

F-R-A-U-D

34 posted on 10/19/2004 7:55:55 PM PDT by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: TBBT

If Bush is three points ahead in polls, he is 13 points ahead in the real world.


35 posted on 10/19/2004 7:56:40 PM PDT by F.J. Mitchell (The liberal Democrats are properly redefining themselves as the pro-aggressive party.)
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To: TBBT

Lovely. All of the illegal registrations they mean. They will get out the vote by passing out money, cigarettes and crack cocaine to steal an election.


36 posted on 10/19/2004 7:56:52 PM PDT by ladyinred (The simple lie always conquers the more complex truth. (propaganda))
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To: rintense

undecideds generally break for the challenger in congressional races,

not in presidential elections despite what Mr "20 years" says.


37 posted on 10/19/2004 7:57:14 PM PDT by kingattax
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To: rintense
He's wrong. Last minute undecideds break for the incumbent.

Well they did for Ford in 76, and Reagan in 1984, but didn't for Bush1 in 1992, Clinton in 1996, or Carter in 1980. Generalizations are dangerous here. Generally, if the incumbent has a big lead, the numbers erode down. In a tight election, it really depends on what folks feel in their gut on election day. In this case, many voters are unhappy with both candidates. In the end, it will depend on just how many of them are willing to take a risk on Kerry, about whom they still have doubts, balanced against their dissatisfaction with Bush.

I suspect Luntz is right though, that there will be a larger turnout, and that it will help Kerry, and many of the pollsters, with their models based on past turnout, particularly Gallup, won't pick it up. I suspect that is worth about 1% for Kerry, which means Bush has to be ahead by 2% based on old models, to break even, all other things being equal regarding how the undecideds break at the last moment.

Kerry has a 40% chance of winning IMO, at present.

38 posted on 10/19/2004 7:57:15 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

Here is the thing. Dems bugged people to sign up while I think Republicans were smarter in who they sign up via chruchs, school football games, ect.


39 posted on 10/19/2004 7:59:59 PM PDT by Paul8148
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To: BCrago66; rintense
Given these respective qualifications, who do you think is right on this issue?

The "undecideds break for challenger" is NOT applicable to the presidents race! It's one of those talking points that gets repeated and people begin to believe the MYTH!

I'll believe Karl Rove over Mr. I'll-say-what-my-sponsors-want to-hear-Luntz any day.

40 posted on 10/19/2004 8:00:02 PM PDT by hobson
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