Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/18/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, October 18, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 10/18/2004 4:25:11 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 96.5 9 0
Alaska 95.5 3 0
Arizona 91.5 10 0
Arkansas 80.5 6 0
California 6.7 0 55
Colorado 72.0 9 0
Connecticut 5.7 0 7
Delaware 9.6 0 3
District of Columbia 1.5 0 3
Florida 64.3 27 0
Georgia 95.7 15 0
Hawaii 5.5 0 4
Idaho 95.5 4 0
Illinois 8.5 0 21
Indiana 94.3 11 0
Iowa 56.5 7 0
Kansas 94.1 6 0
Kentucky 93.1 8 0
Louisiana 92.6 9 0
Maine 21.5 0 4
Maryland 9.8 0 10
Massachusetts 2.8 0 12
Michigan 20.5 0 17
Minnesota 33.8 0 10
Mississippi 94.5 6 0
Missouri 77.1 11 0
Montana 96.0 3 0
Nebraska 95.6 5 0
Nevada 66.1 5 0
New Hampshire 44.0 0 4
New Jersey 14.2 0 15
New Mexico 37.5 0 5
New York 5.0 0 31
North Carolina 89.8 15 0
North Dakota 95.5 3 0
Ohio 54.0 20 0
Oklahoma 97.0 7 0
Oregon 23.8 0 7
Pennsylvania 34.2 0 21
Rhode Island 3.5 0 4
South Carolina 95.1 8 0
South Dakota 95.7 3 0
Tennessee 91.6 11 0
Texas 96.5 34 0
Utah 97.5 5 0
Vermont 3.9 0 3
Virginia 87.6 13 0
Washington 10.0 0 11
West Virginia 79.0 5 0
Wisconsin 54.0 10 0
Wyoming 97.5 3 0
Totals   291 247


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-34 next last
I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 291 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 247 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 277.23 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 10/18/2004 4:25:12 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/11/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/4/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 10/18/2004 4:25:23 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

3 posted on 10/18/2004 4:25:41 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

4 posted on 10/18/2004 4:25:58 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Optimist; BlessedByLiberty; upchuck; Remember_Salamis; Aeronaut; codercpc; Gritty; Krodg; fooman; ..
If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.
5 posted on 10/18/2004 4:26:26 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

We need to get WI, IA, and OH for this to work--sure hope it's so. WI shows a Kerry lead in every Kerry poll I've seen and OH will be Fraud City from the sounds of their pre-election activities.


6 posted on 10/18/2004 4:30:07 AM PDT by MHT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

14.7% chance of Bush winning New Jersey? That seems way cheap.


7 posted on 10/18/2004 4:35:34 AM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (Visualize Smaller Government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

PING.


8 posted on 10/18/2004 4:37:20 AM PDT by beckysueb (W for Prez)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

NJ is going to go to Bush, the big MO here has been moving in his direction for several weeks and is now a DEAD HEAT! Bush is coming to NJ today to campaign.

New Jersey is BUSH COUNTRY!


9 posted on 10/18/2004 4:38:47 AM PDT by stockpirate (Kerry; supported by, financed by, trained by, guided by, revered by, in favor of, Communists.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

Edwards sure was a horrible choice for Veep. North and South Carolina are around 90%+ for Bush.

If that's indicative of Kerry's ability to surround himself with effective people, I'm not impressed.


10 posted on 10/18/2004 4:39:58 AM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (Visualize Smaller Government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
Tanks fer tha ping!

IMHO, this election will turn on turnout. GO VOTE!! And take a neighbor with you.
11 posted on 10/18/2004 4:42:19 AM PDT by upchuck (Pajamas? I don' need no steenking pajamas!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

It is an interesting fact that roughly speaking 1/3 of electoral college votes are 90% or more for Bush (178), 1/3 10% or less for Bush (164), and 1/3 between the two (196).

This would seem to mitigate against an utter landslide for either side.


12 posted on 10/18/2004 4:43:17 AM PDT by tjwmason (Coerced and bribed window-dressing.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Question Liberal Authority

Yep. Stupid to try to win the south with a Massachusetts liberal and a trial lawyer. I wonder if people just ignore it when a person can't win the home state of their running mate. It looks like people would pay attention to the ones who know these people best. Thats why Algore couldn't win Tennessee. The people here knew him.


13 posted on 10/18/2004 4:45:18 AM PDT by beckysueb (W for Prez)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: beckysueb

In a deeper sense, it shows how much pandering Kerry does without any core values whatsoever. He puts a guy from the south on the ticket, and thinks he's sewn up the south. He even changes his own ethnicity from Irish to Jewish to French depending on the audience. It's bizarre.


14 posted on 10/18/2004 4:53:52 AM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (Visualize Smaller Government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

This is great until the 'rats steal the Florida and Ohio vote by massive fraud. I am really worried the election will be stolen from us.


15 posted on 10/18/2004 4:58:21 AM PDT by WayneM (Remember; "Saturday people first. Sunday people next.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
I'm calling it for Bush with 320
16 posted on 10/18/2004 4:58:27 AM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tjwmason

All the close ones (50-60%) are given to Bush.


17 posted on 10/18/2004 5:07:26 AM PDT by zeebee (John Kerry- whichever way the wind blows)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
It's pretty obvious Ohio is the key to this election. Kerry can't win without it. He'll also have to take one more close state.

I know a lot of Ohioans are saying Ohio is a lock for GWB, but the fraud has me worried. It's not a comforting thought to realize this election will be won or lost by fraud and Liberal lawyers/courts in just a few states.

The Liberals are turning us into a Banana Republic in their quest for control.

18 posted on 10/18/2004 5:24:09 AM PDT by Gritty ("In the Kerry doctrine, the nuance of 'nuisance' depends largely on the terrorists"-Mark Steyn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: beckysueb

I wonder if people just ignore it when a person can't win the home state of their running mate.

I read an interesting article here on FR a few months ago (Can't find it now) showing that it is the norm that V.P. candidates do NOT carry their home states.

19 posted on 10/18/2004 5:53:56 AM PDT by Graybeard58
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Jeff Head

I agree with your analysis. I am beginning to think all the reports of voter fraud are so the Kerry camp can say that Bush stole the election. I just don't see someone sticking out their neck that far for John Kerry. He needs the Clinton fraud machine for votes and I don't see that actually being there on election day.

Also think the media is trying to get Republicans to stay home in States they say Kerry has locked up like NJ! I think it is all orchestrated and come Nov 3rd when Republicans turn out in records numbers the media will be shown to be biased beyond belief.

When history writes about this election the media and RATs are not going to be looked at very unkindly. Someday people will look back on the Clinton years and those years following with the Clintons still in control as a party lacking any core beliefs or moral values -- lying to these people is a way of life!


20 posted on 10/18/2004 6:09:52 AM PDT by PhiKapMom (AOII Mom -- Oklahoma is Reagan Country and now Bush Country -- Vote for Dr. Tom)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-34 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson