Posted on 10/18/2004 4:25:11 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 95.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 91.5 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 80.5 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 6.7 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 72.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 5.7 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 9.6 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 1.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 64.3 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 95.7 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 5.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.5 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 8.5 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 94.3 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 56.5 | 7 | 0 |
| Kansas | 94.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 93.1 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 92.6 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 21.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 9.8 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 2.8 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 20.5 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 33.8 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 94.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 77.1 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 95.6 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 66.1 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 44.0 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 14.2 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 37.5 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 5.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 89.8 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 95.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 54.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 23.8 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 34.2 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 3.5 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 95.1 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.7 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 91.6 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 96.5 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 97.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 3.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 87.6 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 10.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 79.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 54.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 291 | 247 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 291 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 247 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 277.23 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/11/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/4/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
We need to get WI, IA, and OH for this to work--sure hope it's so. WI shows a Kerry lead in every Kerry poll I've seen and OH will be Fraud City from the sounds of their pre-election activities.
14.7% chance of Bush winning New Jersey? That seems way cheap.
PING.
NJ is going to go to Bush, the big MO here has been moving in his direction for several weeks and is now a DEAD HEAT! Bush is coming to NJ today to campaign.
New Jersey is BUSH COUNTRY!
Edwards sure was a horrible choice for Veep. North and South Carolina are around 90%+ for Bush.
If that's indicative of Kerry's ability to surround himself with effective people, I'm not impressed.
It is an interesting fact that roughly speaking 1/3 of electoral college votes are 90% or more for Bush (178), 1/3 10% or less for Bush (164), and 1/3 between the two (196).
This would seem to mitigate against an utter landslide for either side.
Yep. Stupid to try to win the south with a Massachusetts liberal and a trial lawyer. I wonder if people just ignore it when a person can't win the home state of their running mate. It looks like people would pay attention to the ones who know these people best. Thats why Algore couldn't win Tennessee. The people here knew him.
In a deeper sense, it shows how much pandering Kerry does without any core values whatsoever. He puts a guy from the south on the ticket, and thinks he's sewn up the south. He even changes his own ethnicity from Irish to Jewish to French depending on the audience. It's bizarre.
This is great until the 'rats steal the Florida and Ohio vote by massive fraud. I am really worried the election will be stolen from us.
All the close ones (50-60%) are given to Bush.
I know a lot of Ohioans are saying Ohio is a lock for GWB, but the fraud has me worried. It's not a comforting thought to realize this election will be won or lost by fraud and Liberal lawyers/courts in just a few states.
The Liberals are turning us into a Banana Republic in their quest for control.
I wonder if people just ignore it when a person can't win the home state of their running mate.
I read an interesting article here on FR a few months ago (Can't find it now) showing that it is the norm that V.P. candidates do NOT carry their home states.
I agree with your analysis. I am beginning to think all the reports of voter fraud are so the Kerry camp can say that Bush stole the election. I just don't see someone sticking out their neck that far for John Kerry. He needs the Clinton fraud machine for votes and I don't see that actually being there on election day.
Also think the media is trying to get Republicans to stay home in States they say Kerry has locked up like NJ! I think it is all orchestrated and come Nov 3rd when Republicans turn out in records numbers the media will be shown to be biased beyond belief.
When history writes about this election the media and RATs are not going to be looked at very unkindly. Someday people will look back on the Clinton years and those years following with the Clintons still in control as a party lacking any core beliefs or moral values -- lying to these people is a way of life!
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