Posted on 10/17/2004 2:05:36 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Bush 50%, Kerry 46% (Kerry -1% from yesterday)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Who claims three wins for Kerry beside rat operatives?
Rasmussen premium numbers from Ohio are not good today, with leaners it is Bush 49% Kerry 49% With job approval dropping from 53% to 51%. My state of Ohio is going to be VERY close, I think anyone who tells you it won't be is too optimistic for whichever side they support. I sure hope Bush pulls it off!
Just the 'Rats and the MSM. Hence the "wins."
the bizarre thing is that the national trend seems to be going Bush's way, but the state by state is actually deteriorating a bit....including in Ohio.
GWB must win in PA or OH or a combination of smaller states like WI, NM and IA. Currently he is leading in NONE of those states.
Kerry could well pull this off unless something breaks Bush's way in one or more of those states....
I still say you have to measure in fraud, it could
be massive.
I think he will surely win some of those states. If I had to bet I'd say he would win WI if the election were held this week and IA is 50/50. NM is unknown. OH is also 50/50. I don't see any of the states being clear Kerry leads though. My hope is that the state polls are lagging these national polls.
For those of you who don't watch Tradesports, here are the most recent GW contract trades as of 3:00 p.m. PDT for the last two weeks. The contracts expire at 100 if GW wins, or zero if he loses, so (put as simply as possible) buying a GWB contract yesterday would cost $53.90, and return $100.00 if GW wins, and selling a contract yesterday would allow the seller to keep $53.90.
For those of us who watch, and invest in, Tradesports, and believe money talks, it has been a harrowing two weeks.
10/04 - 59.4
10/05 - 61.0
10/06 - 61.0
10/07 - 62.5
10/08 - 58.7
10/09 - 57.0
10/10 - 56.9
10/11 - 59.0
10/12 - 58.0
10/13 - 55.0
10/14 - 54.6
10/15 - 54.0
10/16 - 53.9
It would only make sense. These polls and pundits that push them are self licking ice cream cones.
Wow! 58/42--who is IEM?
For specific states, you are right; but if Bush gets over 50% of the popular vote (which I think he will), the historical trend is unanimous: the incumbent wins; ALWAYS. I know popular votes don't "win" it, but in this case, two times in a row would be too much. In short, I have faith.
GOTV in Ohio!
Iowa Electronic Markets
"RCP.. 4.0" Looks like a perfect grade average!
A election guru I know explained to me that 2% would be considered massive. It was estimated that fraud in 2000 was between 1-1.5% that was considered high, assuming that all fraud is Dummie instigated ( which is probably not valid) and increase of 25-50% in 2004 would be really huge leaving you with 2% max
This is great news, but what we really need is a win by such a decided margin (53%) so this nation doesn't have to go through the horror of living in limbo for 30 days after election day to hear who the winner is while lawyers duke it out.
It is SO all about turn out, turn out, turn out.
IEM = Iowa Electronic Markets produced by UofI Business Dept. Has been running ahead of Tradesports recently for W
Kerry stopped thinking like a lawyer a long time ago. or even a soldier. He has been a politician for ~25 years, and it showed.
Also, like you said, how many people knew his wife was wealthy? Now everyone knew. I wonder how the Bushies will use the fact that Teresa only paid 15% taxes...
I think it cost Kerry more than 2-3 points. More people think about it, more they will get mad at Kerry.
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