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Bush Has Expectations Working On His Side; Poll: President Pulls Ahead of Kerry
ABC NEWS ^ | 10/17/04 | By GARY LANGER

Posted on 10/17/2004 7:10:33 AM PDT by tagawgrag

Edited on 10/17/2004 7:25:39 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

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To: Vigilanteman
Bush also is back to poaching slightly more Democrats (13 percent support him) than Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent). Still, independents, key swing voters, divide closely, 48 percent for Kerry, 45 percent for Bush.

One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle a sometimes tricky political straddle.

Can anyone explain to me why, with numbers like these working in Bush's favor, the polls are as close as they are? I am genuinely confused here.

81 posted on 10/17/2004 8:32:17 AM PDT by closet freeper
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To: RightthinkinAmerican

And also if he did so damn GREAT in the debates why hasnt he pulled ahead. Because the only reason he did do so good in the debates is because the MSM said he did. But we know different!


82 posted on 10/17/2004 8:34:45 AM PDT by JessieHelmsJr
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To: closet freeper
Can anyone explain to me why, with numbers like these working in Bush's favor, the polls are as close as they are? I am genuinely confused here.

Inertia. A large number of people just do not think about their vote. The Democrats could nominate a yellow dog and they would go to the polls and vote for it.

Inertia in a another sense. It takes time for the polls to catch up with reality. They do not do the state polls nearly as often, nor use the same methodology.

Basically campaign works by diffusion. Hundred of thousands of conversations going on around the country slow changing the media directed perception of Kerry/Bush. It takes time to fight off the multi billion dollar DNC direct Kerry ad campaign going on in the Dinosaur media.
83 posted on 10/17/2004 8:41:03 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: JessieHelmsJr

And also if he did so damn GREAT in the debates why hasnt he pulled ahead. Because the only reason he did do so good in the debates is because the MSM said he did. But we know different!

That and that all the Right wing Pundits and Talk Show hosts did EXACTLY what the DNC spin machine wanted them to do which is hyperventalate about Bush's style instead of keeping the focus firmly on what Kerry SAID.


84 posted on 10/17/2004 8:42:33 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: tagawgrag


85 posted on 10/17/2004 8:45:53 AM PDT by MeekOneGOP (There is only one GOOD 'RAT: one that has been voted OUT of POWER !! Straight ticket GOP!)
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To: SunkenCiv
That would be from the isolationist, pro-abortion, legalize-drugs wing of the party.

Codswallop. The top issues among the libertarian wing of the Republican party are taxation, welfare statism and gun rights. Kerry fares very badly on those issues.

I think the 7% are the Buchananite "America First"-ers. They're receptive to Kerry's message of protectionism and peace-through-retreat, and overlook the rest.

86 posted on 10/17/2004 8:50:52 AM PDT by Physicist
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To: tagawgrag

I wish I was so confident. I woke up again at 3:30 am and started thinking about the election. I must really be a worry wart. I just keep thinking what a disaster it will be if Bush loses.


87 posted on 10/17/2004 8:52:50 AM PDT by DestroytheDemocrats
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To: JessieHelmsJr
No pollster is going to want their numbers wrong on election day.So in the coming days you will see the MSM polls start to reflect the internals.

When I saw Zogby's last results I suspected something like what you say. He wants to maintain some shred of credibility for the future, so he doesn't want to predict a nail biter on, say, Nov. 24 and Bush up 8% on Nov. 31. So he's easing his way back to reality.

88 posted on 10/17/2004 8:56:55 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson (Ho, Ho, Ho Chi Minh/Loves John Kerry so vote him in!)
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To: Homer_J_Simpson

Just heard Pat Buchanan say how Bush starting to pull ahead in ZogBy poll.


89 posted on 10/17/2004 9:01:31 AM PDT by JessieHelmsJr
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To: bitt
What she is saying is Mary Cheney is a target

And notice who the right did not make a target out of - Alexandra Kerry, who like it or not, was representing our country when she appeared in front of the whole world in that hideous see-through gown! (Shudder)

90 posted on 10/17/2004 9:11:20 AM PDT by ride the whirlwind (Poor John Kerry, he can't help it. He was born with a silver flip-flop in his mouth.)
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To: ride the whirlwind

Gallup dont want to be wrong

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1247901/posts


91 posted on 10/17/2004 9:12:30 AM PDT by JessieHelmsJr
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To: MNJohnnie
EVERYBODY GET to the 72 Hour POLL OBSERVER training! Drive as far as you need to to become a poll watcher!

We have to be pro-active to minimize the planned fraud.

The President has earned the votes of American citizens, and he will get a clear majority IF we do our part and GOTV and watch the polls on election day!

92 posted on 10/17/2004 9:15:23 AM PDT by ohioWfan (BUSH 2004 - PRAY for our PRESIDENT!)
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To: tagawgrag

This is probably a dumb question, but when does Hawaii finish voting, and does anyone care if the election is called before they finish? Has anyone ever conceeded before they finish?


93 posted on 10/17/2004 9:15:23 AM PDT by js1138 (D*mn, I Missed!)
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Comment #94 Removed by Moderator

To: js1138

This is probably a dumb question, but when does Hawaii finish voting, and does anyone care if the election is called before they finish? Has anyone ever conceeded before they finish?



Jimmy Carter conceded before CALIFORNIA finished. Let's hope History repeates this year.


95 posted on 10/17/2004 9:31:57 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: DestroytheDemocrats
I wish I was so confident. I woke up again at 3:30 am and started thinking about the election. I must really be a worry wart. I just keep thinking what a disaster it will be if Bush loses.



Yep. So instead of worrying. Contact your Bush Campaign HQ and get involved.
96 posted on 10/17/2004 9:34:09 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: tagawgrag

How can this be? According to the MSM Bush lost all three debates and Kerry has had a "surge" in the polls. At least that is what they were saying last week. Could they have been (dare I utter the words) lying to us?


97 posted on 10/17/2004 9:53:51 AM PDT by foolscap
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To: Drango

"the left will be demoralized and their turnout will be dampened."

Conventional wisdom says this election hinges on turnout, and I believe it. The 'rats know they have a clunker on their hands so watch for outrageous attempts by dems to sweep the streets with booze, cigarettes, crackrocks, whatever it takes.

And pray for bad weather. Cold and snow or heavy rains across the midwest from Milwaukee to Chicago to Cleveland to Pittsburg would be most welcome. Keep the rats in their nests.


98 posted on 10/17/2004 9:57:13 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: closet freeper

"Can anyone explain to me why, with numbers like these working in Bush's favor, the polls are as close as they are?"

On "Reliable" Sources today the pinheads Dana Milbank and Evan Meacham agreed that the media likes a close race. (CNN called the 52-44 Bush margin "a razor thin edge.")

The polls are almost all commissioned by the media.

I connect the dots.


99 posted on 10/17/2004 10:04:59 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: commish

No, I believe the BIG ELEPHANT in the room which is missed by pollsters is the EVANGELICAL VOTE. Karl Rove has been working almost exclusively on these voters thru ministers for four years. Rover has said 3-4 million evangelicals stayed home in 2000.

In 9 states, there is a state constitutional amendment on "Same Sex Marriage" on the ballot in November. I can't remember which states, but Michigan is one of them. Does anyone here know which states are involved. I believe most of them are in the midwest.

The Bush team is counting on evangelical Christians putting them over the top like they did for Reagan in 1980. I know for certain that the churches are putting out an unprecedented effort to encourage their flocks to get out their & register to vote and to "VOTE THEIR VALUES" and how important this presidential election is for people of faith. In code: VOTE FOR PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH.


100 posted on 10/17/2004 10:07:47 AM PDT by nightowl
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