Posted on 10/17/2004 7:10:33 AM PDT by tagawgrag
Edited on 10/17/2004 7:25:39 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Oct. 17, 2004 -- While the race for the presidency is close, George W. Bush has expectations working for him: Most likely voters think that in the end he'll win a second term.
Even though the race has been a dead heat for much of the past week, 56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will. That's a bit closer than in early September, before the debates revived Kerry's campaign, but expectations remain on Bush's side.
After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday. The last two days were better for Bush, who's taken to the road since Wednesday's debate with sharpened criticism of Kerry's domestic policies.
Women account for some of the slight movement in the race. Men still support Bush by double digits (13 points in this poll), while women are now supporting Kerry by a narrower 51-46 percent. Bush also is back to poaching slightly more Democrats (13 percent support him) than Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent). Still, independents, key swing voters, divide closely, 48 percent for Kerry, 45 percent for Bush.
One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle a sometimes tricky political straddle.
Nader
With more than 7,500 interviews of registered voters during the last 16 days, the ABC News tracking poll has accumulated enough of Nader's supporters to begin to analyze this small subgroup. Independents predominate: Fifty-nine percent of them are independents, 21 percent Democrats and 10 percent Republicans.
Fewer than might be expected, three in 10 Nader supporters, are liberals; 24 percent are conservatives and 40 percent moderates. They're younger overall -- half of Nader supporters are under age 40, compared with 40 percent of all registered voters.
As befits a younger group, Nader supporters also are less well off: Thirty-nine percent of Nader voters have incomes over $50,000, compared with 51 percent of all registered voters. This poll will produce further analysis of Nader supporters, narrowed to likely voters, as the tracking sample grows.
Expectations
Expectations of the outcome are partisan, but not exclusively so. Eighty-eight percent of Bush's supporters expect him to win; fewer of Kerry's, 67 percent, predict victory for their candidate.
Only in three core Kerry groups -- Democrats, liberals and blacks -- do majorities expect him to win. Another core Democratic group, non-religious Americans, divide evenly; and still another, single women, expect it to be Bush -- even though they themselves favor Kerry by more than a 20-point margin.
In the two big swing voter groups, 55 percent of independents expect Bush to win, as do 54 percent of white Catholics. A Bush victory is expected by six in 10 moveable voters, young voters and first-time voters alike, as well as by large majorities of Bush's core groups -- 75 percent of conservatives and evangelical white Protestants alike.
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 13-16, 2004 among a random national sample of 2,401 adults, including 2,115 registered voters and 1,582 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and "The Washington Post" are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
I didn't know there was a presidential election in 2002.
There wasn't but there were Congressional races. Everyone who raves about Zogby and 2000 miss the fact that he was the worst of any polster on the 2002 races getting 5 out of 17 races wrong. The point is that anyone look to the past to determine what is going to happen in the future is kidding themselves.
I answered my phone the other night and was delighted to tell the pollster that I'm totally for Bush, think he is doing an excellent job, and think that Kerry is an opportunistic liberal (bordering on communist) jerk!
I went out yesterday and I had a blast. Met some real nice people.
With all the voter fraud that is going to take place I'm not putting too much stock into the polls. I would love to see the President run ads in urban areas touting his opportunity zones, school vouchers and faith based iniatives. This might help him get 12,13 percent of the African-American vote, more of the Latino vote. And this could go a long way to offsetting the voter fraud which makes this polls meaningless. God bless everyone. Jim
Gee 47-45 right through October -- do those numbers sound familiar? -- hopefully the same thing will happen in the voting booth too. America will get in there and say, NOPE can't do it, can't change horses now.
What's Zogby's problem?
Wild horses...broken glass...a blizard...etc...my whole family will be there.
If Bush can win Michigan, PA and Wisconsin and Kerry wins Ohio and Florida, what will the electoral count look like?
Read the entire article carefully. The story clearly states the margin of error as 2.5%.
"I went out yesterday and had a blast. Met some real nice people."
Where were you volunteering ?
Notice the Bush trend starts later than the Kerry trend
Note to poinq the whole point of checking a trend is to watch where it is GOING, not hyperventalate about where it has been
You can run various outcomes on a number of sites...here's one from the LA Slimes (yes you have to register)
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-polldatapage,1,3925465.htmlstory
Look, Zogby does not have a problem. With any poll, especially one that tracks daily, you will see ups and downs just based on based on simple statistical variation. That is why, it is better to look at the aggregate of the pools. RealClearPolitics provides that. Do not get caught up in one poll.
Bush is looking good at the Iowa Electronic Markets:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
I would tend to agree with you -- those were definately WTF? moments for me -- but "global test" and "Nuke fuel to Iran" were buried in rambling "nuanced" answers that probaly sounded like blah blah blah blah yada yada yada to most American's.
Even the pundits never picked up on them -- or maybe they ignored them by choice. Bottom line was that those comments really only got play among those of us who are already decided. They went over the heads of the great unwashed if you will. The Mary Cheney comment and failure to say "I love tahreyzuh" went straight to the heart of every American -- much more devestating (but much less important to us) than his actual policy statements that were buried in his avalanche of bullshiite.
The beauty of, even a 50-50 split in the voting, is that democratic support is top heavy and wasted in NY and California all the while republicans will win their states by simple thousands or a few tens of thousands.... not the millions in California or NY! Take away NY & CA and Bush would beat win over Kerry by 5-8%. Poor democrats sure hate that electoral college not being a liberal arts swable institution.
Look, Zogby does not have a problem. With any poll, especially one that tracks daily, you will see ups and downs just based on based on simple statistical variation. That is why, it is better to look at the aggregate of the pools. RealClearPolitics provides that. Do not get caught up in one poll.
Very good advise with ONE warning. RCP numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. For example, last night there was all this hysteria around Free Rep because of Bush's JA number. Everyone was freaking because it was going down. What no one bother to figure was the number went down because of the CLEARLY fraudulent 43% fantasy number posted by See BS news. RCP takes any number with no consideration for clearly baised numbers that are either too high, or too low for Bush.
Bush is looking good at the Iowa Electronic Markets:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
Really intresting when you compare the Real Clear Politics graph and the Iowa Electronic Markets graph. Look pretty much identical.
Good NEWS but still an AWFUL lot of time left.
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