Posted on 10/17/2004 7:10:33 AM PDT by tagawgrag
Edited on 10/17/2004 7:25:39 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Oct. 17, 2004 -- While the race for the presidency is close, George W. Bush has expectations working for him: Most likely voters think that in the end he'll win a second term.
Even though the race has been a dead heat for much of the past week, 56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will. That's a bit closer than in early September, before the debates revived Kerry's campaign, but expectations remain on Bush's side.
After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday. The last two days were better for Bush, who's taken to the road since Wednesday's debate with sharpened criticism of Kerry's domestic policies.
Women account for some of the slight movement in the race. Men still support Bush by double digits (13 points in this poll), while women are now supporting Kerry by a narrower 51-46 percent. Bush also is back to poaching slightly more Democrats (13 percent support him) than Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent). Still, independents, key swing voters, divide closely, 48 percent for Kerry, 45 percent for Bush.
One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle a sometimes tricky political straddle.
Nader
With more than 7,500 interviews of registered voters during the last 16 days, the ABC News tracking poll has accumulated enough of Nader's supporters to begin to analyze this small subgroup. Independents predominate: Fifty-nine percent of them are independents, 21 percent Democrats and 10 percent Republicans.
Fewer than might be expected, three in 10 Nader supporters, are liberals; 24 percent are conservatives and 40 percent moderates. They're younger overall -- half of Nader supporters are under age 40, compared with 40 percent of all registered voters.
As befits a younger group, Nader supporters also are less well off: Thirty-nine percent of Nader voters have incomes over $50,000, compared with 51 percent of all registered voters. This poll will produce further analysis of Nader supporters, narrowed to likely voters, as the tracking sample grows.
Expectations
Expectations of the outcome are partisan, but not exclusively so. Eighty-eight percent of Bush's supporters expect him to win; fewer of Kerry's, 67 percent, predict victory for their candidate.
Only in three core Kerry groups -- Democrats, liberals and blacks -- do majorities expect him to win. Another core Democratic group, non-religious Americans, divide evenly; and still another, single women, expect it to be Bush -- even though they themselves favor Kerry by more than a 20-point margin.
In the two big swing voter groups, 55 percent of independents expect Bush to win, as do 54 percent of white Catholics. A Bush victory is expected by six in 10 moveable voters, young voters and first-time voters alike, as well as by large majorities of Bush's core groups -- 75 percent of conservatives and evangelical white Protestants alike.
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 13-16, 2004 among a random national sample of 2,401 adults, including 2,115 registered voters and 1,582 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and "The Washington Post" are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
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Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
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Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent)"
That would be from the isolationist, pro-abortion, legalize-drugs wing of the party.
That would be from the DNC stooge, I got a talking point memo telling me to pretend to be a Republican, Democrat Activist wing of the party.
Not real sure what the point is of repeating the 2000 numbers. How did they do in 2002?
Here's the problem the Democrats have......their voters are ant-Bush more than they are pro-Kerry. The problem with that is that a protest vote is far less likely to show up at the polls than someone who is voting "for" someone as the Bush voters are doing. Pat Cadell pointed this out repeatedly, that protest voters make a big impression on pollsters but then don't bother to vote on voting day. So add 5 points to any Bush poll number you see.
ABC is missing the ELEPHANT in the living here.
Yes, Bush painting Kerry as a liberal is working to a degree, but Kerry's erosion among women(and overall) can be directly tied to two Debate moments -- Mary Cheney and the WIFE question.
All the mothers gasped whenhe went after Cheney's daughter, and all the wives screamed when he put MOM over his wife.
Thanks for the "You Rule !" On the last three days beforethe election, I will be going to either Pennsylvania or New Jersey to volunteer. It all depends on which poll is closer....
LOL....Fox News just picked up on this...I wonder if they were looking here.
George W. Bush will win reelection by a margin of at least ten per cent.
Election 2004 topics list
I didn't know there was a presidential election in 2002.
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 13-16, 2004 among a random national sample of 2,401 adults, including 2,115 registered voters and 1,582 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and "The Washington Post" are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
I am a little nervous about telephone polls...who answers their phone anymore?
That's a good question. That is why I think the only polls worth watching are polls that don't shift their polling methodology or voter demographics from poll to poll. And even those polls are only useful to examine trends. Rasmussen is one such poll, as it the Battleground Poll. Their actual numbers may not be accurate, but the trend they reveal can at least show which candidate is gaining or losing.
All the mothers gasped whenhe went after Cheney's daughter, and all the wives screamed when he put MOM over his wife.
I kinda felt that way. My gut reaction was what kind of loser cannot even say on National TV he loves his wife?
So true!
The last Presidential election after the last time the US was attacked was 1944:
Any President fighting a war is going to see a lot of unhappy voters.
Roosevelt didn't have 4 broadcast networks, 3 cable networks, and all the major newspapers working against him, either!
I'm glad to see Bush up in this latest poll, though!
That is where elections are decided, and if you look through all the posts (here and at DU), listen to all the pundits IMMEDIATELY afterward, and read all the editorials -- you will see the words "gut reaction" said over and over and over.
All the bloviating in the world by the two John's cannot undo the GUT REACTION of Wednesday night -- to quote Lynn Cheney -- "This is a BAD man!"
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