Look, Zogby does not have a problem. With any poll, especially one that tracks daily, you will see ups and downs just based on based on simple statistical variation. That is why, it is better to look at the aggregate of the pools. RealClearPolitics provides that. Do not get caught up in one poll.
Look, Zogby does not have a problem. With any poll, especially one that tracks daily, you will see ups and downs just based on based on simple statistical variation. That is why, it is better to look at the aggregate of the pools. RealClearPolitics provides that. Do not get caught up in one poll.
Very good advise with ONE warning. RCP numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. For example, last night there was all this hysteria around Free Rep because of Bush's JA number. Everyone was freaking because it was going down. What no one bother to figure was the number went down because of the CLEARLY fraudulent 43% fantasy number posted by See BS news. RCP takes any number with no consideration for clearly baised numbers that are either too high, or too low for Bush.
exactly, that is the problem (fallacy?) of DAILY tracking polls -- to much statistical volitility/noise. You have to take the tracking and look at what the weekly/biweekly/monthly trend patterns are.
When you look at the trend lines of all the tracking polls the result is stark and heartening. Kerry is flatlined throughout, all the way back to the spring -- he is at 45% (give or take a 1-2 pt jog) all the way through.
That is actually all one needs to look at, Kerry is stuck, he never goes above 47%. He is at his Ceiling.
Now add to that the Bush trendline, which is a steady (albiet slow) upward climb from 43% in the spring to a healthy 48-49% now.
Trends don't lie. Kerry is stuck, Bush is rising steadily.