Posted on 10/17/2004 7:10:33 AM PDT by tagawgrag
Edited on 10/17/2004 7:25:39 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Oct. 17, 2004 -- While the race for the presidency is close, George W. Bush has expectations working for him: Most likely voters think that in the end he'll win a second term.
Even though the race has been a dead heat for much of the past week, 56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will. That's a bit closer than in early September, before the debates revived Kerry's campaign, but expectations remain on Bush's side.
After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday. The last two days were better for Bush, who's taken to the road since Wednesday's debate with sharpened criticism of Kerry's domestic policies.
Women account for some of the slight movement in the race. Men still support Bush by double digits (13 points in this poll), while women are now supporting Kerry by a narrower 51-46 percent. Bush also is back to poaching slightly more Democrats (13 percent support him) than Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent). Still, independents, key swing voters, divide closely, 48 percent for Kerry, 45 percent for Bush.
One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle a sometimes tricky political straddle.
Nader
With more than 7,500 interviews of registered voters during the last 16 days, the ABC News tracking poll has accumulated enough of Nader's supporters to begin to analyze this small subgroup. Independents predominate: Fifty-nine percent of them are independents, 21 percent Democrats and 10 percent Republicans.
Fewer than might be expected, three in 10 Nader supporters, are liberals; 24 percent are conservatives and 40 percent moderates. They're younger overall -- half of Nader supporters are under age 40, compared with 40 percent of all registered voters.
As befits a younger group, Nader supporters also are less well off: Thirty-nine percent of Nader voters have incomes over $50,000, compared with 51 percent of all registered voters. This poll will produce further analysis of Nader supporters, narrowed to likely voters, as the tracking sample grows.
Expectations
Expectations of the outcome are partisan, but not exclusively so. Eighty-eight percent of Bush's supporters expect him to win; fewer of Kerry's, 67 percent, predict victory for their candidate.
Only in three core Kerry groups -- Democrats, liberals and blacks -- do majorities expect him to win. Another core Democratic group, non-religious Americans, divide evenly; and still another, single women, expect it to be Bush -- even though they themselves favor Kerry by more than a 20-point margin.
In the two big swing voter groups, 55 percent of independents expect Bush to win, as do 54 percent of white Catholics. A Bush victory is expected by six in 10 moveable voters, young voters and first-time voters alike, as well as by large majorities of Bush's core groups -- 75 percent of conservatives and evangelical white Protestants alike.
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 13-16, 2004 among a random national sample of 2,401 adults, including 2,115 registered voters and 1,582 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and "The Washington Post" are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
The Drooling Lapdog Press is starting to cut its losses...
Interesting -- I never would've guessed that Roosevelt won by such a narrow margin in 1944.
That's what I think is going to happen. Big landslide coming. I can feel the tremors.
In 2000, vote fraud in the form of recount fraud didn't give Gore the illicit victory he craved. After GWB is reelected I'd be surprised if anything gets done, including federal oversight of balloting, which is badly needed IMHO.
Mostly, I think the ballot fraud problem serves as a motivation for Bush supporters, i.e., enemies of the Party of the Single Party State (the so-called Democrats).
That would be the DUmmies who try to demoralize us by pretending to be Pubbies voting for the Fraud. I have actually read posts (months ago, haven't been there lately) over there where some DUmmies were claiming to have done just that, and laughing about how we'd react.
Just like Zell Miller said, the Fraud is planning on defending us with SPITBALLS!
56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will.
If they believe it's a lost cause, they may stay home or not turn in that ballot. They may even be less inclined to participate in fraud.
I do think the Christian vote is going to surpass the 4 million said to have not voted in 2000. People assume that number cited in addition with those that voted in 2000, is the totality that can be expected from the Christian community. Uh-uh. Not even close. If the community is as energized as I believe they are, people may be surprised election day. More so than they were for the airing of TPOTC.
One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more,
IF IT STICKS????????
HOW COULD IT NOT STICK????????
the msm.
oh.
Actually I think these articles are the msm's way to mobolize the leftist base.
ABC poll shows "50 percent support for Bush, 46 for Kerry"--
I saw these numbers on Fox News day before yesterday, and started a thread--the thread got yanked. I'm still scratching my head on why.
There, fixed that for ya.
Notice the bias... Bush "poaches" Democrat votes, but Kerry "wins" Republican ones.
I know just how you feel. The ONLY consolation I have in a Kerry win is that he will "f" it up so badly that America will never want another democrat in office -- ever! Look, he can't even run a campaign effectively, how can anyone expect him to run a country. He's never run anything as a matter of fact, just his mouth - constantly spewing out unbelievably stupid things.
I'm in northern California.
Good luck ! I'm on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, definitely in the minority. I imagine you are as well.
Our church in Peoria had a register to vote effort at the end of September. We have over 3000 attendees each week, and we probably registered over a hundred. If this is replicated at all evangelic churches (20-40 million) we're talking several million additional voters.
Go Bush.
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