Posted on 10/17/2004 7:10:33 AM PDT by tagawgrag
Edited on 10/17/2004 7:25:39 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Oct. 17, 2004 -- While the race for the presidency is close, George W. Bush has expectations working for him: Most likely voters think that in the end he'll win a second term.
Even though the race has been a dead heat for much of the past week, 56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will. That's a bit closer than in early September, before the debates revived Kerry's campaign, but expectations remain on Bush's side.
After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday. The last two days were better for Bush, who's taken to the road since Wednesday's debate with sharpened criticism of Kerry's domestic policies.
Women account for some of the slight movement in the race. Men still support Bush by double digits (13 points in this poll), while women are now supporting Kerry by a narrower 51-46 percent. Bush also is back to poaching slightly more Democrats (13 percent support him) than Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent). Still, independents, key swing voters, divide closely, 48 percent for Kerry, 45 percent for Bush.
One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle a sometimes tricky political straddle.
Nader
With more than 7,500 interviews of registered voters during the last 16 days, the ABC News tracking poll has accumulated enough of Nader's supporters to begin to analyze this small subgroup. Independents predominate: Fifty-nine percent of them are independents, 21 percent Democrats and 10 percent Republicans.
Fewer than might be expected, three in 10 Nader supporters, are liberals; 24 percent are conservatives and 40 percent moderates. They're younger overall -- half of Nader supporters are under age 40, compared with 40 percent of all registered voters.
As befits a younger group, Nader supporters also are less well off: Thirty-nine percent of Nader voters have incomes over $50,000, compared with 51 percent of all registered voters. This poll will produce further analysis of Nader supporters, narrowed to likely voters, as the tracking sample grows.
Expectations
Expectations of the outcome are partisan, but not exclusively so. Eighty-eight percent of Bush's supporters expect him to win; fewer of Kerry's, 67 percent, predict victory for their candidate.
Only in three core Kerry groups -- Democrats, liberals and blacks -- do majorities expect him to win. Another core Democratic group, non-religious Americans, divide evenly; and still another, single women, expect it to be Bush -- even though they themselves favor Kerry by more than a 20-point margin.
In the two big swing voter groups, 55 percent of independents expect Bush to win, as do 54 percent of white Catholics. A Bush victory is expected by six in 10 moveable voters, young voters and first-time voters alike, as well as by large majorities of Bush's core groups -- 75 percent of conservatives and evangelical white Protestants alike.
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 13-16, 2004 among a random national sample of 2,401 adults, including 2,115 registered voters and 1,582 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and "The Washington Post" are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
exactly, that is the problem (fallacy?) of DAILY tracking polls -- to much statistical volitility/noise. You have to take the tracking and look at what the weekly/biweekly/monthly trend patterns are.
When you look at the trend lines of all the tracking polls the result is stark and heartening. Kerry is flatlined throughout, all the way back to the spring -- he is at 45% (give or take a 1-2 pt jog) all the way through.
That is actually all one needs to look at, Kerry is stuck, he never goes above 47%. He is at his Ceiling.
Now add to that the Bush trendline, which is a steady (albiet slow) upward climb from 43% in the spring to a healthy 48-49% now.
Trends don't lie. Kerry is stuck, Bush is rising steadily.
Whatever the reason they dislike him it probably not political because ABC national is crawling with more lefties than the DNC.
Well stated.
One can only hope it continues. Three things will happen if it's clear that Bush is way (significantly?)ahead. First, the left will be demoralized and their turnout will be dampened.
Second, with lower liberal turnout, the Republicans have a better shot at increasing their strength in the House/Senate/State Legislatures. Coat tails baby! Third, the fraud issue disappears and dead rat voters can't swing the election.
"The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample."
Bush ahead by 1.5 above the MOE.
33% ??? .... that's bad news for Kerry
What is that 7% of R's smoking?
on Mary Cheney - Kate OBierne, Capital Gang - 'People found it completely inappropriate, including -- polls say, including 4 out of 10 Democrats.
Mary Beth Cahill, John Kerry's campaign manager -- she explained exactly what was afoot when she said immediately after the debate Mary Cheney is, quote, "fair game." What's fair game?
NOVAK: That was outrageous.
O'BEIRNE: That's a word for a target. What she is saying is Mary Cheney is a target. How did she get to be a target? Just because you're out of the closet doesn't mean John Kerry and John Edwards get to drag you up on a debate stage! That's her choice, and she didn't make that choice. And I agree with you about Elizabeth Edwards. John Edwards this time says -- he must thinking he's talking to one big dumb jury instead of the electorate -- if John Kerry's elected, people will stand up and -- out of their wheelchairs? And then Elizabeth Edwards shamefully psychoanalyzes the Cheney family? Let me return the favor! Elizabeth and John Edwards, it seems to me, get along so well because they're both shameless!
zinger #2:
Kerry promised one of the first things he would do is to shut down production of nucleur BUNKER BUSTERS, when they were debating Iran...he would instead offer them non-weaponizing fuel? WTF?
But then subtract it again to account for fraud. Bush by four if election held today.
Take your video camera! Document all fraud!
Well I trust this poll more than others because the gender gap seems abot right.......Some of these polls with Bush only up a couple with men vote is whack out.
By the way not sweating the zogby poll. Bush drop two points because Republicans went out on saturday night. Kerry did not go up.
Yes, but if you begin the Bush trend at the same time as sKerry's, the Bush trend line is still positive, though its slope decreases. That may be due to earlier voter disinterest, poll sampling numbers, and so forth. The president's trendline never slopes below sKerry's.
But if you were to take a trend from September 15th onward the trend would be very skerry.
True, but the whole point of the analysis is that September's numbers were so out of whack that the numbers likely were manipulated - even if only unconsciously - to engineer an sKerry October Momentum, which may be this year's October Surprise. The very short trendline you suggest discards important data and therefore adopts consistency (and so, credibility) issues.
I've been trying to find it again, but a paper published at a university somewhere in 1998 studied poll predictions for the 1996 elections. The polls in 1996 were so wrong in the same way, predicting sizable Democrat gains in both number of votes and seats in Congress, that the authors of the study concluded that some sort of prejudice against conservatives and Republicans had to be part of the problem. The conclusion included a comparison of probability: there was, if I recall correctly, greater chance of a coin being flipped 100 times successively "heads up" than to have all the polls agreeing so substantially and consistently, erroneously.
Your shortened trendline of data that is questionable for many reasons is likely erroneous as well.
Add his idiotic mention of Gov't paid abortions, support for partial-birth, and opposition to parental notification and there are several Dukakis moments.
Heres the dirty little secret.Bush has been ahead the whole time tbefore the debates and after. They (MSM)are trying like hell to keep this a horse race but the campaigns know the internal poll numbers Bush is killing Kerry. They can only keep these bullsh*t poll numbers going for so long. No pollster is going to want their numbers wrong on election day.So in the coming days you will see the MSM polls start to reflect the internals.
Trends don't lie. Kerry is stuck, Bush is rising steadily
From your mouth to God's ear. Now if we can just get enough Bush voters to the polls to offset the Democrat directed Voter Fraud and the Lawsuits we are home free.
The media will also TURN on Kerry and begin reporting negatives on him as the election nears and it is apparent hwe doesn't have a chance. Stupid people with short memories will think the media was fair then in reporting Kerry shorcomings right before the election - just as if htey were REAL journalists.
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