Posted on 10/15/2004 2:02:20 PM PDT by RWR8189
No change from yesterday
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
So THAT'S where RINOS come from! LOL!
In recent federal elections in Canada and Australia, undecided voters broke decisively for the incumbent. I'm not convinced the undecideds-break-for-the-challenger conventional wisdom holds true in the current political climate.
And what a great set of knockers to boot. ;)
Yea, 96% of all voters are decided... NOT... somebodies playing with some numbers.
Ovaltine!?!
Yep. But they can't draft me. ;)
The fact that F'n did not take the lead is very positive and must mean W had another good day. If so, he'll be back in the lead tomorrow.
Exactly! The candidates' internal polls tell them where they need to campaign. Kerry has abandoned some states which were in play for Gore.
Give my creation...LIFE!!!!!!!1
I think this rule of thumb that undecideds break for the challenger doesn't clarify much. In reality they break for the perceived winner, and certainly will in this election. Despite the Charlie Cook/Sabato theory that W. has to be up big in the polls prior to the election, Kerry tied in this poll is good news.
That is just not true.
A Challenger must give the voters a reason to reject the incumbent. In every presidential election baring some special event, undecideds break 2 to 1 for the incumbent. That goes back 80 years.
It is especially true if the challenger is not well defined. In the old days they used to describe it as,"The undecideds go for the devil they know rather than the devil they don't know."
In 1948 the undecideds broke for Truman. In 1956 the undecideds broke for Ike. In 1964 the undecideds broke for LBJ. In 1972 the undecideds broke for Nixon.
The only exception was in 1980. Then the debate between Carter and Reagan was held just just 10 days before the election. That debate changed the publics opinion of Reagan. He had been painted as a Goldwater Republican who would start and lose World War III. When the public saw him up close and compared him to Carter, they broke for Reagan. But it took a special event.
In 1984 the undecideds broke for Reagan. In 1996 the undecideds broke for Clinton.
The media feeds this crap that undecideds go for the challenger... But there is only one case in the last 80 years where that was true and the debate close to the election was the reason.
In 1980 Reagan mopped up the floor with Carter in the debate that was held 10 days before the election. Kerry did not mop up the floor with Bush.. Bush was successful in getting the debates over and done nearly 3 weeks before the election. That means they will not be a factor in the undecideds final decision.
It is just as Karl Rove says. The undecideds will break 2 to 1 for Bush.
This part isn't so good:
"But the survey also suggests that Kerry continues to claim a large lead in key battleground states. In these 13 states, Kerry held a 53 percent to 43 percent advantage among likely voters."
Ding Ding Ding. Yep. That's right. Look at the campaign not the media spin. We all know that the media comissions polls, and that the polls that are being used are using the 00 turn out model.
The campaign in trouble usually is the one defending it's territory and acting irrational. What campaign promises that the blind will see if that canidate is elected. Promises a draft if the opponent is elected?
All of that said, one campaign enjoys the full support and the vote of the dead. The most important issue here is to VOTE on ELECTION DAY.
Good post.
It was going back-and-forth.
For some incomprehensible reason, Carter agreed to ONE debate with Reagan, October 28, 1980. Carter blew it, and not enough time to recover before election day. Immense strategic mistake, but doesn't that sum up the entire Carter presidency???
Post FDR, only TWO Democrats have broken the 50% vote barrier. One was Carter with 50.1% in 1976. The Democrats tend not to win unless there is a viable conservative or moderate third-party candidate.
There isn't this year.
Undecideds rarely break more than 50/50 for the challenger in presidential elections. Reagan's was the exception. There have been several threads on this just in the last few months.
Naaaaaaaaaayyy.
That is not true either. Read my post on the subject.
Everyone from Democratic pollster and consultant from Jimmy Carter's Pat Caddell to George Bush's Karl Rove agree with me.
Caddell even claims his pollling showed the undecideds went 2 to 1 for Carter over Reagan. Pat claims his polling showed it was the Reagan debate win over carter that changed voters minds.. and not the undecideds that went for Reagan in the final 10 days of the 1980 Campaign. Pat was the campaign pollster for Carter in both 1976 and 1980.
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