I'm calling it for Bush: Electoral College 320 to 218

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | Oct 15, 2004 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

I'm calling it for Bush today, 10/15/2004.

Bush 320 Electoral Votes, Kerry 218 Electoral Votes.

[Aeronaut]

Jeff, we're going to deliver another ten EVs here in Minnesota. It's gonna happen!

[Jeff Head]

I know a lot of good people working in PA who have the commitment and the drive to see it through. I believe their work and their faith will make a difference because a lot of patriotic blood is coursing through the veins of a lot of people in PA. Can not point to anything more than that.

[E.G.C.]

BTT!!!!!!!

[bootless]

GOP poll watchers need to be there as well - at least in pairs, and bring a video camera.

[fizziwig]

"Spoke to my mom the other day and she is convinced that Bush will somehow win CA this time! She says it just a gut feeling. I love ya Ma and I will be the first to hug you if this truly does happen!"

Its easy to get that impression in rural areas. Big Bush signs everywhere. CA is long long long shot for Bush, but it would be oh so nize!

[sola_fide]

Actually, the way it has worked in the past is the alternate. One election cycle the Rs are Red and the Ds are blue. The next election cycle it's reversed.

[TonyInOhio]

I like your optimism, my friend. :)

I'm making my official call right here on Jeff's Official Call thread:

BUSH 311

KERRY 227

I agree with most of your prediction, except:

BUSH carries MN (10), NM (5), and part of ME (1)

KERRY wins PA (21) and the rest of ME (3)

I'm gonna work to make sure it happens in Ohio!

Tony

[bootless]

I believe that BLUE goes to the incumbent party, which makes us blue, and them red this time around.

[SAMWolf]

I hate seeing Oregon in the Kerry column. ;-(

[brewcrew]

I should have qualified it by saying that "blue=party in power, red=challenger" was the standard until now. I think too many pollsters have made too much of the "red state" "blue state" thing.

Either way, I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

[Fatalis]

Y'know, for over a week now I have wanted to start a FReeperesearch thread regarding the new Party-representational colors. Who took away our "true blue"?

If you recall, the GOP was always blue, up to and including the first 2000 Election reports.

The GOP was blue from the beginning of color TV until the 1980 election. Suddenly in 1984 the networks decided that the Democrats and red clashed (it was the Cold War, don'tcha know) and since then the Republicans have been red.

[Samwise]

From your mouth to God's ears!

[Jeff Head]

We shall see...but no crack or any other such substance has eer dimmed my thinking...or ever will.

I have faith in the good American people in those states and in God in heaven and believe they can and will see it through and make the difference. Then we move forward with whatever is dealt us knowing we have done our all.

We all need to work and have faith that we can do just that.

[clamper1797]

I hope you're right Jeff ... my biggest worry is massive voter fraud

[hushpad]

Our governor, "Fast Eddie" Rendell, has announced that he's going to post 150 (democrat) poll watchers in key precincts<<

Sounds to me that your States Republicans ought to be DEMANDING an equal amount of Republican "watchers". The Governor MUST represent all of the people.

If he refuses, try to get it on a sympathetic news show (Hannity and Colmes, Rush Limbaugh, local conservative staions) What say you?

[gathersnomoss]

Philadelphia has had a large registration drive. Good luck and push! BTW, I spent some time in Uniontown and it definitely goes Dem.

[SLB]

My daughter has moved to Ohio where she is going to the University of Cincinnati Graduate School. She registered to vote there as she knows Kentucky will go for Bush, but Ohio needs all the help they can get.

[Congressman Billybob]

I agree with you, and from an earlier date.

In my column on 29 August, I laid down the following markers: 1) Bush over Kerry by 10% margin, with a "landslide" win in the Electoral College (I did not put a number on the E. C.); 2) Republicans pick up 2 Senators; Republicans pick up 13 Representatives; Republicans pick up 1 Governor; Republicans pick up 131 state legislators. Lastly I said that if my predictions are off, they will be "low."

Furthermore, when the election is examined in retrospect, I believe the fundamental reason for Kerry's defeat will trace to his marketing decision to focus on his "honorable" service in Vietnam. As I put in writing, Kerry's defeat was sealed when he sat down after giving his acceptance speech in Boston, beginning with that sloppy salute and that badly chosen focus, "John Kerry, reporting for duty."

I thought that then. I think that now. And I conclude it could not have happened to a more deserving guy.

Congressman Billybob

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[blackdog]

It ain't over til the Carville serpent wears a trash can on his head(again). When I see that, I'll relax.

[AlexPKeaton04]

It's funny cause if Bush won CA we could finally drop the FL and OH mess all together. That would be sweet