Skip to comments.Demographic Obstacle for GOP
Posted on 10/06/2004 11:59:50 AM PDT by MarlboroRed
But the thing to me, folks, is this election shouldn't even be close right now. The reason that it is close, they're reasons that have to do with things that, you know, Karl Rove and George W. Bush really don't have all that much to say about or control over. I mean demographics -- if we can be honest here for a second -- demographics are going to make it increasingly more difficult for Republicans to win in the future if things don't change as they are now. Many people who are voting have no context. I've got story after story today of voter fraud, registration fraud in Franklin County, Ohio. There are more registered voters than the Census Bureau says are eligible. We got a story out of Tampa today in the St. Petersburg Times about how a group that was formed in the 1970s, you may have heard of them, ACORN, is out trying to register voters two and three times and they've been caught in the act. You've got the Kerry campaign demanding 6,000 lawyers at these polling places but they will not allow Republican lawyers to be sitting side by side. But one of our problems here is that some of the people voting have no context today. They're just being registered and sent out there with marching orders essentially; World War II generation is dying off. We have people here because of the open border policy. We have people who have not assimilated into our culture. The liberal propaganda resonates with many of them, at least, a large number of them, maybe a growing number of them, because of the "we'll do everything for you" propaganda that liberals are known for.
I'm not trying to be defeatist. I don't want anybody to misunderstand. I just want you to know what the obstacles are here. Before everybody starts dumping on Bush and Rove and everybody else totally, there are some things that you have to understand. We still have history taught by the left in academia. The media has been teaching history for a long time and, you know, some inroads are being made there, tremendous inroads are being made. Progress is taking place but I want to be realistic about some of the obstacles that we still face. You can't have all this history taught by the left, including the media and expect to make huge, huge inroads. This is an election, maybe the first of its kind, with such dramatic demographic changes. And these demographic changes, as long as we don't do something about immigration, are going to continue.
Bush, I hate to say this -- but I mean you know this has been one of my bugaboos since 2000 -- on the domestic side Bush has spent like a liberal. He has spent and spent and spent and spent and spent. But, his problem is he dares to defend his country. So the fact that he dares to defend his country cancels out all the so-called "good," he's doing by spending like a liberal. And I think as I look back at the debate, one little comment about it, as you look back at Bush in that first debate, the last half of that debate, first half I'm telling you was a different story than the last half. There was a big momentum shift, but you look back at the second half of that debate, I think what you saw is the new tone. Maybe even a little bit prevent defense. Don't be mean. Let's not attack, let's not make people dislike us. Let's not get people angry at us and so forth. Of course just the opposite was called for, and just the opposite was what was necessary.
So, you know, I mean one of the examples of this demographic shift I can give you, just so you'll know, I'll give you an illustration. Orange County, California. Orange County always was relied on to offset the Democrat liberal dominance of Los Angeles. But now over 50% of Orange County is minority and immigrant and most of them vote Democrat, most of the new arrivals. The point is that the Republicans, I'm looking long-term here just to give you something to think about, not just this election and not primarily this election, but long-term. The Republicans just cannot expect to keep winning if every election we have to write off California. If every election we have to write off New York, Illinois, and maybe soon Florida, if those states become states that we have to write off simply because of demographic shifts, then you can't expect to win. One of those states, some of those states, are eventually going to have to be mined and cultivated if consistent national victories are to take place.
Not only do the demographic changes increasingly make life difficult for the averge American (by lowering wages and forcing people to flee from overcrowded and foreign neighborhoods), the changes will end forever any chance of a Republican being elected to National office. Now, if only we can get Bush to change his mind on immigration and pledge to enforce the law.
"the fact that he dares to defend his country cancels out all the so-called "good," he's doing by spending like a liberal."
astute observation. when will conservatives learn they will never get brownie points with liberals? why then do we try so hard to please them? and then we STILL have to fight like hell to have a two-term president? why can't someone just be an across the board, unapologetic conservative..let's take our chances with THAT agenda rather than trying to appease the absolutists on the other side are going to hate us no matter what! appeasement only discourages consrevatives! it doesn't win over liberals!!!!
Sadly, I don't believe that this is ever going to happen.
Four years from now, it will be politically impossible to enforce immigration laws.
Well, well, well, Limbaugh finally says what he has not allowed so called "seminar callers" to say for years about the immigration isue. The way I have seen it, most immigration in the last 20 years has been driven by demands of business, bioth big and small, for cheap labor at all and any cost, and sadly Neo-Con pundits have tried to shovel down the nonsense that most immigrants are natural conservatives, while the election results say otherwise. As others have said here on FR, the open border policy is national suicide.
Well, he is correct, but this piece doesn't address the problems. The problems are the massive illegal immigration, the open borders, and the complete lack of assimilation by poor immigrants voting for liberals who would bankrupt the country and strip our defenses to get their votes. We need answers to those problems, politicians who will actually do something about them, something firm. The problems we already know.
I wouldn't expect much response on this thread. Most people know this is true, but are in denial. It is easier not to think about this because there is nothing that can be done about it at this point.
It took us decades to purge the party of the KKK types but we still haven't fully recovered the trust of the black community.
Ridding the party of Buchanan was just a first step.
When will conservatives ever learn this? People are begging for someone who treats them like adults, begging a return to the sort of America they grew up in, something they can recognize.
Demographic shifts are important, but it doesn't change the fact that the Dems field lousy candidates. If this were not the case, Rudy couldn't have won in NYC; Pataki couldn't have won in NY State; and Schwarzenegger...you get the idea.
Well, after a couple more lection cycles it won't make much diffrence. The country, as we know it, will cease to exist.
It simply takes will. Americans will support it.
You might want to mention that Kerry et al are for TOTAL relaxation of immigration rules.
And also that the spending under the multiple Kerry/Edwards plans (if they in fact do exist) will be tri-fold what is being spent now.
If Rush is starting to talk about this, I suspect it is finally starting to sink in in the establishment, at least to some minimal degree.
This assumes that people's political affiliation is unrelated to their self interest, and that the self interests of immigrants will always center around welfare.
We could have a pendelum swing, but I doubt if it will be permanent. Even Blacks are not automatically democrats. I see evidence that African Americans are getting tired of the victim image. It's not particularly manly.
The population is always changing. Right now the Republicas are doing better than I don't know when in terms of % of GOP vs. DEM. If the population is becoming more minority based, the GOP will have to come up with policies that attract them, or package their policies in such a way that attracts them.
Bush lost the Hispanic vote something like 61 to 32 (don't remember actual numbers, but a huge difference); now he's behind in the Hispanic vote by 9. So it is possible for the GOP to make inroads in minority populations. A similar improvement, and Hispanice vote would be in favor of the Republicas, so the more Hispanics that voted, the better!
I don't buy the notion that the Republic party is doomed to not win a national election.
The future is written in every free-lunch room - all the stools are on one side of the counter.
"The Republicans just cannot expect to keep winning if every election we have to write off California."
Hey Rush, Arnie IS a Republican!
"Now, if only we can get Bush to change his mind on immigration and pledge to enforce the law."
It appears the republican congress has awoken.
Oct. 5, 2004, Lou Dobbs Tonight (partial transcript)
DOBBS: The White House is demanding that the House Republican leadership strip the intelligence reform bill of tough new restrictions on illegal aliens and border security.
Republican Congressman Roy Blunt is the majority whip. He is the second most powerful Republican in the House of Representatives and says the immigration reforms will remain in the legislation, despite what the White House is demanding.
We thank you both for being with us. Before we begin, let me show you, point out to you, as you well know, and to our viewers who may not be as familiar the provisions that we're discussing here tonight in the intelligence reform legislation.
The first element, of course, is what is the crackdown on driver's licenses on illegal aliens. The White House wants that stripped out, wants to be able to make it easier to deport illegal aliens, those who cross our borders illegally, and to limit the use of foreign consular I.D. cards. That is, such cards as the matricula consular of Mexico, other consular I.D. cards for identification within this country.
Again, thank you both for being here.
Let me begin with you, Congressman Blunt. You are prepared to resist the White House on their demands to weaken the border security provisions of the immigration -- of the intelligence reform legislation?
REP. ROY BLUNT (R), MAJORITY WHIP: Well, we think the border security provisions are important provisions. They're the one thing that the 9/11 commission called for that didn't make it in the Senate bill in any way. I think they make total sense. They're absolutely defensible. For every one of those provisions, there is some egregious case in recent years where someone who really has done great damage to our society could have been stopped if these provisions would have been in place and would have been enforced.
We are working with White House to see if they've got some suggested changes that we might add to this legislation to make them more comfortable in a couple areas. But we intend to go forward with these provisions that, again, the 9/11 commission created the basis for in their report.
BLUNT: I might also point out, we were with -- we had some of the 9/11 families here this morning, and they were all to a person supportive of these provisions.
In fact, they said that -- the 9/11 families that they couldn't find any individual in the families who oppose these provisions, but they were being told just what my good friend Jane just said, that somehow they're poison pills designed to kill this legislation.
These are in this legislation designed to stop terrorists and terrorism. We -- we think they're totally reasonable, the idea that we would have greater border security. We're not requiring visas from Canada and Mexico, but we are requiring specific documents that have to be approved. And, other than that, you have to have a passport to get in and out of the country.
That's totally appropriate, I think.
BLUNT: Oh, I think this is not anti-immigrant. In fact, legal immigrants more than any other group want to be sure the law's enforced. They have gone through the process of the law to get here. They want to be protected from people who have come into the country without going through that same legal process. That's all really these are designed to do, and, Lou, you know how important that is.
full transcript at: http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0410/05/ldt.01.html
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