Poll puts Bush, Kerry about even [Details on the GALLUP/USA TODAY/CNN POLL]

CNN.com ^ | 10/3/04 | CNN.com

[MarlboroRed]

CNN) -- President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are about even among likely and registered voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Sunday.

The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group.

The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

By contrast, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll conducted September 24-26. Among registered voters in that poll, the spread was 53 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Nader had 3 percent among each group.

[Soul Seeker]

Thank you. Do we have the numbers of how many Republicans, Democrats and Indy's were in the poll?

[tiki]

Did they use likely voters last time?

[grey_whiskers]

For whom is it over?

My take on the situation is this... Ask not for whom the Bull trolls... they troll for you! ;-)

[RWR8189]

They make each result available each time.

[Soul Seeker]

The tie is said to be among likely voters, and Bush up by 2 in registered.

[COEXERJ145]

Did they use likely voters last time?

Yes they did but 300-500 fewer than in previous polls.

[Dat Mon]

Im really starting to feel mentally challenged. Not only do I not understand or believe this poll,I still think Bush 'won' the debate. Hugh Hewitt thinks so too. What is wrong with this picture??

[franklog]

I find the incredible shift in Age 65+ voters to be highly unlikely. Also, they're going to tell me that Bush is winning so handily 18-64 year olds, and suddenly a group of people who I think everyone knows are fairly set in their opinions SHIFTS 22 POINTS IN A WEEK and now the race is tied?

Something smells rotten here.

[goldstategop]

The internals look good. Whether Kerry can do more than score a tie remains to be seen. The only time he broke above 50% was in a Los Angeles Times poll earlier this year that oversampled Democrats.

[twoshed]

There were some dramatic shifts in last poll not only age groups but education and income, I don't know maybe Moveon.org made an impression on Gallup pollsters, get in line or you're not invited to the next dinner party.

[hawkiye]

It makes no sense with Bush way ahead in all the internals how could he possibly be so close overall? Are people just stupid and will vote for Kerry anyway even though they like Bush better or is this just skewed poll numbers for effect?

[KAUAIBOUND]

Not only that, but how did the Midwest go 58 to 38 for Kerry when the only state with that kind of margin is Illinois and the other states are either virtually tied or Bush is 5 to 10 percent ahead? Something about this poll is off.