Bush Lead is Gone

MSNBC ^ | 0 Oct 2004 | MSNBC

[Byron Norris]

By Brian Braiker Newsweek Updated: 6:04 p.m. ET Oct. 2, 2004Oct. 2 - With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race. Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent’s 46 percent. Four weeks ago the Republican ticket, coming out of a successful convention in New York, enjoyed an 11-point lead over Kerry-Edwards with Bush pulling 52 percent of the vote and the challenger just 41 percent.

[Right Brother]

I just don't understand the panic. Kerry merely showing up for the debate was enough for the media to claim that he won. The fact that he has to tell us he won the debate in his newest ad tells the true story. "I think I can, I know I can" may work for little locomotives but not for Kerry. There is one month to go in this campaign and for the short attention span of the American public, it's an eternity. The Bush team has a few more weapons in their arsenal marked: Late October.

[hobson]

I can't find it now but the pre and post polls had the EXACTLY the same sample for men and women. I don't believe the poll AT ALL.

[deport]

The breakdown on election day will be around 40D-37 or 38R. (History suggest we will not see a voter turnout showing more Republicans than Democrats).

---

I'm not sure history is any true indicator of what will occur turnout wise this election.... We've never had a 911 event in recent history of a presidential election to compare to..... It may well follow history but that we surely don't know this time.

[sinkspur]

I really hope Bush did not screw up

He did screw up. However, he can recover on Friday completely, provided Karl Rove keeps him OFF the campaign trail that day, and the entire team takes this debate seriously.

According to the New York Times, Bush's preparation for this debate consisted of bouncing questions off his staff. Our president does not think well on his feet. Somebody needs to whip him into shape before Friday.

[lemura]

I Think Prez Bush recognized the debate for what it was. A left leaning stupid media show and he doesn't have much patience with stupidity and grandstanding. To me his obvios irritation shows his true common sense character. God bless him.

So he decided to protest the debate by appearing to be an inarticulate oaf? Talk about selfish behavior - there's a lot more at stake than Bush's personal chances at being re-elected President.

There's a whole lot of people who believe in the Bush Doctrine and want someone to forcefully defend and advance this position. It's incumbent upon Bush to project an image of certainty and resolve - we don't want anymore excuses about whether or not he was tired, etc.

To many supporters, Bush is no longer just the 'leader'; he's the person responsible for sufficiently discharging his duties. In this sense, we the people, are the coach, and he's the star athlete. We expect to win, and we expect Bush to suck-it-up and bring it home.

[Shepster]

Thanks for lifting my spirits with those internals of the Gallup poll.

[sushiman]

" Sorry if I offended . . . just couldn't resist the grammatical opportunity.

No problem . Best wishes ... Sushi

[Twinkie]

No. With Kerry, she stands to rule for life on the Supreme Court.

Kerry loses. She still has a whale of a lot of work before she gets to crown herself queen as President.

[toomanygrasshoppers]

"Forget the Polls"

I agree. President Bush's base is strong. The recent polls only indicate that Kerry is a better debater. Big deal. President Bush will be re-elected. The panic mode is getting annoying.

[jennyjenny]

I agree it will be temporary, assuming it is accurate, which I doubt. Kerry has spent the last 2 days mocking President Bush and the whole Kerry campaign is calling President Bush a liar. Kerry is on a big ego trip right now and the sound bites being played from his rallies show it. I think that is a major turn off to most Americans. Also, all of his blunders made in the debate are starting to come out. Kerry is very good a blowing it, so whatever gain he has seen, he will quickly lose on his own.

[jennyjenny]

Yeah, I saw over there at DU they are posting here. It really is kind of disturbing to me that there are that many people, that ignorant, paranoid and bi-polar, that get to vote. Sometimes I wonder if most of them are over the age of 15. They remind me of high school. They truly are a bizarre group of people.

[gop_gene]

According to the New York Times, Bush's preparation for this debate consisted of bouncing questions off his staff. Our president does not think well on his feet. Somebody needs to whip him into shape before Friday.

If that is truly the case (and I can certainly believe it, even coming from the NYT given W's performance), I find this lack of preparation disturbing. I can see why he would find the debates a waste of time when he's got much, much more important matters to deal with, but he and his advisors should have realized if you do badly, it can hurt you and give momentum and hope to the other guy, the last thing we want.

I heard on one of the news stations before the debate that W's prep consisted of throwing everything but the kitchen sink at him, which I don't believe. Because if the preppers truly believe they did all they could do, we may be in long-term trouble. They threw everything at him and that's the best W could do? They are living in a bubble if that's the case.

[jennyjenny]

I have heard the same thing where I am. A huge registration of new republican voters and it's not even close in my state (Indiana). I think here, people not only want President Bush to win, but to win overwhelmingly.

[Khaosai]

I'm not sure history is any true indicator of what will occur turnout wise this election.... We've never had a 911 event in recent history of a presidential election to compare to..... It may well follow history but that we surely don't know this time.

I can agree with you here. We really don't have real way of knowing what turnout will be until after Nov 2nd.

However, to suggest that we will see such a reverse in voter weighted turnouts than wew ever have before is also a stretch.

And perhaps 2002 was the 9-11 vote. In that, that was the first time Americans were able to go to the polls and vote regarding what happened.

Lastly, I still think GW is in decent shape. This election was always going to be close. Those suggesting otherwise were merely suggesting this for their own hope and psyche.

And those suggesting it was fine for Newsweek and others to oversample (or over weight voter turnout models) in favor of Republicans - Because of the notion that more Americans were identifying themselves as Republicans at that given time - Well, then it is also fine for Newsweek (CBS, Gallup)) and the rest to do the same thing now (if more are identifying themselves as Democrats after the debate).

My point is a consistent voter turnout model is the better way to gage where the race is at.

And with that, we have a very tight race.

[Salvation]

**However, he can recover on Friday completely, provided Karl Rove keeps him OFF the campaign trail that day, and the entire team takes this debate seriously.**

The President definitely needs to practice and have questions volleyed at him?

[mountaineer]

The recent polls only indicate that Kerry is a better debater. Big deal. President Bush will be re-elected. The panic mode is getting annoying.

Perhaps, but the president, his staff and his supporters (that means us) have to work as though he were 15 points down. We have to overcome voter fraud, news media bias, the usual Democrat dirty tricks and lies - we cannot and must not be complacent.

Contact your local GOP and ask how you can volunteer at a phone bank; write letters to your local newspaper; let's all do our part!

[tiamat]

sushiman wrote:


"W looked tired and off his game "

You'd think that Mr. Bush and his handlers would realize how important this first debate was , and have him bright eyed and BUSHYTAILED ( pun sorta intended ) and ON his game , n'est pas ? Perhaps he was up all night doing his overdue homework ?

---

President Bush was out all day touring hurricane sites and offering comfort to people who had lost everything.

Kerry, meanwhile, went to a spa and had a manicure.

[Flux Capacitor]

Right here. Immediately after the debate, only the Pacific and Mountain time zones were polled. As you can imagine, this pretty heavily skews the results.

Newsweek Poll
First Presidential Debate
Princeton Survey Research Associates International

Final Topline Results
(10/2/04)

N = 1,013 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 30-October 2, 2004 (interviewing on 9/30 limited to the Pacific and Mountain time zones after the presidential debate concluded)

The only people for whom it's panic time is the Dems.... and thanks to the partisan media, they don't even know it. By the time they realize it, it'll be too late.

-Dan

[Thom Pain]

"...voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate..."

If it was about performing James Earl Jones would be President for life...

[NetSurfer]

Found this for you:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1233524/posts?page=955#955