Bush Lead is Gone

MSNBC ^ | 0 Oct 2004 | MSNBC

[Byron Norris]

By Brian Braiker Newsweek Updated: 6:04 p.m. ET Oct. 2, 2004Oct. 2 - With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race. Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent’s 46 percent. Four weeks ago the Republican ticket, coming out of a successful convention in New York, enjoyed an 11-point lead over Kerry-Edwards with Bush pulling 52 percent of the vote and the challenger just 41 percent.

[cajungirl]

good post flux1

[Wormwood]

I'e been noticing an odd strain of defeatism, unjustified by what's actually been happening. I suspected that DU trolls were infiltrating, posting negatively, then reporting back to DU that "Freepers are freaking out over all the bad news"

To be fair, I was disappointed in Bush's debate performance, and I posted to that effect.

And if he blows the next debate, I'll do the same.

[ClarenceThomasfan]

I think this is what happened in the Newsweek newsroom last week. Evan Thomas said "Next week we have to do a big Kerry comeback story! Poll department, you make it happen. Tweak the poll any way you can but I want Kerry to be on top!"

And walla! they made it happen. The only question is are we going to fall for it.

[ApesForEvolution]

Do you need a hand? (you fell into the NEWSWEEK/MSM trap)

[beckysueb]

Now if we could get the MSM to quit repeating this poll like its gospel.

[Randjuke]

I've posted here a half dozen times my view that there should be no debates.

Without the debates Al Gore would probably be president now, he made such a poor showing in the 200 debates. Bush has shown he can stay cool and do well in debates, why it didn't happen Thursday I don't know.

[gop_gene]

Without the debates Al Gore would probably be president now, he made such a poor showing in the 200 debates. Bush has shown he can stay cool and do well in debates, why it didn't happen Thursday I don't know.

And without the debates, we may never have had Reagan.

[ApesForEvolution]

Watch for the single issue wedge dividers coming in, like "Democrats for RKBA" or whatever...;O

[hosepipe]

Anybody that would believe ANY poll or the MSM would vote for Al Gore.. What's important is... what do YOU beleive.. if anything.. unless you're a sheeple.. sheeple need confirmation..

[Knitting A Conundrum]

Good piece at the Political Vice Squad http://politicalvicesquad.blogspot.com/
analyzing the poll internals...like an overreliance on west coast voters thursday night for some of it's number, a high amount of demos and some other things...

This is not the time to panic...that's what the MSM want us to do...it's the time to dig in our heels, hold the line and poke holes in the garbage they are pedalling.

[libstripper]

This entirely concurs with and supports the thinking of people here and of Rush when the Newsweek poll showing Bush 11 points ahead first came out. It was noted that Republicans were haeavily over sampled and that it could all be part of a plot to come out later with a heavily anti-Bush poll and trumpet the results of that poll to show how he was losing. That's exactly what happened.

The other point about this is that it casts a pall of doubt over all of the polling Newspeak does. If they're willing to slant two presidential polls so heavily to achieve their political goal, then there's no reason to believe any of their polls because they're all probably slanted.

After SeeBS came up with the fake Bush guard memos and this pair of BS polls, there's little way to rely on the accuracy of any MSM reporting.

[Randjuke]

Oops 2000, not 200. The 200 debates were not televised.

[Khaosai]

Try searching Newbie before going into panic mode. Newsweak is playing with the numbers to help Kerry.

I agree that Newsweek tweaked the numbers some bit ...and over-sampled Dem's -

However, CoexerJ145, you need to stay consistent. I have lurked on here for a long time and just in the past two months you were suggesting that perhaps the Newsweek polls out then (showing GWB up) were a TRUE reflection and they were just picking up surging GOP type attitudes across the Country and thus this was accurate then in the oversampling of Republicans being done by Newsweek-

Yet, now you claim it isn't right to tweak with the numbers? Odd. Stay consistent.

Newsweek polls are junk. They are not a polling company, they poll for news.

But you seem to tout any poll that shows GW up regardless if it makes sense to our not.

Then when others use the same polls you once touted you run to your silly "troll" defense.

[Salvation]

The people I was talking to from the GOP phone bank (both dimocrats and Republicans) yesterday were coming out for Bush over Kerry!

BTW, contact your local County or state GOP and get out there and volunteer!

Walk your neighborhood!
Be a caller at the phone bank!
Distribute literature and/or Bush/Chenney signs!
Talk to your neighbors about supporting the issues on your ballot in a conservative way.

Most important of all:
VOTE EARLY! (We want our votes counted!)

[7.62 x 51mm]

No time to panic, BN. Remember, this is Newsweak; they poll dems and libs almost exclusively, and skew the numbers to their candidate's side. Polls don't mean crappola, anyway.

Welcome to FR, BTW.

[BunnySlippers]

A person on DU started a thread here yesterday and posted the link to DU. Their name was something like HeForgotPoland. Then when FR was taken down they thought they had taken FR down by his/her post.

You are right. Let's be careful. Their aim is to demoralize.

[Terp]

This original story was not posted under this headline so you would never have found it. The discussion in the threads last night pointed out Newsweek's poll sampling pre and post debate is faulty.

I followed the other thread before FR went off-line for a upgrade. The first NewsWeak poll showing GW with the big lead was faulty because they sampled to many Republicans and this latest poll is faulty becasue they sampled to many Democrats.

Here's the scoup from another site.

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,013 Total Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

481 Men (plus or minus 5)

532 Women (plus or minus 5)

345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)

364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)

278 Independents (plus or minus 7)

As you can see they oversampled Dems and women.

[beckysueb]

I Think Prez Bush recognized the debate for what it was. A left leaning stupid media show and he doesn't have much patience with stupidity and grandstanding. To me his obvios irritation shows his true common sense character. God bless him.

[bogeybob]

Note to President Bush...

With all due respect, we need a better effort this time out.

1. Prepare...you won't hear anything from Kerry you haven't heard before.

2. Short, crisp answers with facts. Don't worry about using all of the allotted time. No need to fill the time out.

3. Focus on the message you want to get out to America.

4. Take the gloves off and be yourself.

5. I know he's annoying. Game face at ALL times, please.

[Rocko]

Tell me somebody this isn't true.

It's not -- and Bush will win.