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Newsweek Manufactures Momentum
RealClear Politics ^ | 10/2/04 | jwalsh07

Posted on 10/02/2004 3:56:52 PM PDT by jwalsh07

Poll Date...Pubbies....Dems....Indies....Men....Women

.
.
9/11/04........391........300......270......481....522
10/2/04........345........364......278......481....532

On 9/11/04 Newsweek published a poll showing Bush up 49-43. On 10/2/04 Newsweek published a poll showing Kerry up 47-45.

Here's a test, you tell me why.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; deceit; fabrication; liberalmedia; medialies; mediashillsforkerry; momentum; newsweak; newsweek; polls
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To: jwalsh07

Hopefully this will keep certain FReepers from counting all those Nov. 2 chickens before they hatch, regardless of whether it's 'likely' or 'registered'.


41 posted on 10/02/2004 4:18:10 PM PDT by zoyd (Hi, I'm with the government. We're going to make you like your neighbor.)
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To: jwalsh07
A glass half full kind of guy, eh Bob? :-}

A 68 year old REALIST
42 posted on 10/02/2004 4:18:21 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Jorge
GWB was supposed to have his biggest advantage in the first debate on Iraq, and we all saw what happened there.

Bush won on substance, Kerry won on style. I'd say it doesn't matter what the debate is about, unless Bush improves his stage skills the outcome is the same.

43 posted on 10/02/2004 4:18:57 PM PDT by randog (What the....?!)
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To: Owen

Gallup does not weight their polls. Many others do.


44 posted on 10/02/2004 4:19:03 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Ask not what you can do for your country, ask the country what it will do for you!)
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To: jwalsh07
Last week we recieved one of these Poll phone calls at 9:20 PM on a weekday. My wife brought the phone to me (I was in bed, nearly asleep) and asked if I wanted to answer it.

I don't know about the rest of the world, but durn 9:30 PM is not the best time to be doing a survey. I told them to call back at a decent hour if they wanted an answer from this household.

End of Rant, but I do wonder if polls taken later at night tend to slant to more liberal responces.

45 posted on 10/02/2004 4:19:19 PM PDT by LowOiL (Christian and proud of it !)
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To: jwalsh07
FRAUD!

Given the data RealClear Politics is reporting, the quick math on the "unbiased" sampling for the NEWSWEEK poll is:

9/11/04 - Reps = 41% Dems = 31%
10/2/04 - Reps = 35% Dems = 37%

Tampering with an election!
46 posted on 10/02/2004 4:19:21 PM PDT by drpix
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To: jwalsh07

If you get a chance, take a look at the Gallop, CBS, ABC internals. There is nothing even close to what NewsWeek internals suggest. Whether it's Bush's honesty, toughness, etc. he wins hands down. Even the Dem Corps poll only shows a small two pt. bounce for Kerry with likely voters.


47 posted on 10/02/2004 4:19:26 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: South40

Yeah, it is. Playing with the figures to get the numbers they want, just the way CBS played with their undecided poll the other day.

I see the hysterical posters and trolls are back today. So eager to cut down the President and inaugurate Kerry. I'm not buying it but I suppose they can have their fun since Newsweek went to so much trouble on their behalf. :-)


48 posted on 10/02/2004 4:20:44 PM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: jwalsh07
The difference between the number of Republicans polled - 9/11 - 391 - 10/2 - 345 compared to DemonRats - 9/11 - 300 - 10/2 - 364.

Do I get a prize?

49 posted on 10/02/2004 4:21:27 PM PDT by slimer
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To: Paleo Conservative

I trust Newsweek more than John Zogby. Zogby is a pollster who has a pony in the race, too. What a joke all these polls are. My main test is the behavior of both campaigns acting in response to their internal polling. That's the best predictor for me.


50 posted on 10/02/2004 4:23:20 PM PDT by kbeam
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To: Soul Seeker

Yes, I shouldn't be, but I was really surprised to see how CBS never mentioned that there poll saw Bush actually gain more undecideds than Kerry. It was simply "Kerry gains in Undecideds".


51 posted on 10/02/2004 4:23:22 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: slimer
Yup, you get to run the thread, I gotta go.

Go Bush!

52 posted on 10/02/2004 4:23:44 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: Paleo Conservative

I trust Newsweek more than John Zogby. Zogby is a pollster who has a pony in the race, too. What a joke all these polls are. My main test is the behavior of both campaigns acting in response to their internal polling. That's the best predictor for me.


53 posted on 10/02/2004 4:23:46 PM PDT by kbeam
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To: jackbill

"Newsweek national editor Jon Meacham suggested on MSNBC that journalists are tired of Bush being in the lead"

Good GOD. This seems to me to be an unbelievable admission...am sure there's a transcript of this...we need to get this out to FOX...Drudge...Sean...Rush...


54 posted on 10/02/2004 4:24:11 PM PDT by SE Mom
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To: jwalsh07
"Here's a test, you tell me why."

Newsweek is obviously controlling their polls (they determine who they poll..number of Rep, Dem, Indies, etc) so the results are what they want at a certain time. Disgusting....

55 posted on 10/02/2004 4:24:14 PM PDT by deadhead (God Bless Our Troops and Veterans Bush/Cheney '04)
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To: jwalsh07

Well, guy, okay, if they target a partisan mix that is their prerogative, but if they did that they have no reason to change from poll to poll. That makes no sense.

The more likely answer is they do not target the mix. This would be worse news. It would mean respondents self identified this way. Hopefully this is not what other polls will show because if they do, it will have nothing to do with the debate. It will derive from the registration drives.


56 posted on 10/02/2004 4:24:20 PM PDT by Owen
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Comment #57 Removed by Moderator

To: Owen

The other polls do not show a massive shift in party self identification, including Gallups post debate poll and Gallup does not weight. So why don't you explain the massive shift in party self identification turning up in a poll run by an organization that has no love for Bush and lots of love for John Kerry.


58 posted on 10/02/2004 4:27:32 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: randog
Bush won on substance, Kerry won on style.

You cite internal in an attempt to make it sound like a tie. It wasn't.
All the polls show Kerry beat Bush in the debate by a HUGE margin.

59 posted on 10/02/2004 4:28:21 PM PDT by Jorge
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To: jwalsh07

Someone should get these internals (linked) to Drudge... This is the type of "Press Advertising" that he likes to hit them on.

It would seem that Newsweek likes to MAKE NEWS so their name is said over and over again in the media... Reporting on the "big swings".


60 posted on 10/02/2004 4:29:53 PM PDT by freestyle
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