Anybody buyin'?
Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130
Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET
New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Excerpt, the rest of the article is here: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Does it not ring true??? I mean, what would you do in a similar situation. Get a little peeved I would bet. That could have been Kerry's strategy, get in Bush's face knowing he is a honest bloke.
Wow! Your post literally gave me goosebumps. Good things are worth fighting for. They don't come easy.
The consensus from most is empathy with Bush. We all think we would have made the same faces.
Thanks DNC for underscoring your guy is such an exasperating loon.
The SNL skit last night sealed that pov. When they had "Kerry" spewing his stuff and GWB was giving his WTF faces I said to my husband the Bush expressions could not have been more effectively explained (I think most got that right away, anyway) and from a better source than a Kerry sympathetic outfit like SNL.
I don't think the republicans had a grip on what a wako snake Kerry is. The roast-debate reminded me of a prize fighter who has been putting up a good fight in ten rounds and a pretty girlyboy steps into the ring and tells him what a lousy job he is doing. Of course the girlyboy would not last one round in the same fight.
We didn't hear that fawned over on the news like we heard it when the Crawford, Texas paper endorsed Kerry, did we?
Foul mouthed and waco. You said that right. My husband tells me to stay away from DU. He says they are making me crazy. LOL
Amazes me that anyone who knows GWB and his style in debates would think otherwise.
And for crying out loud, at least he wasn't sighing like Algore! And remember....the Goremeister "won" that debate. HAHA.
Kerry would have said, there he goes again, questioning my patriotism. I went to Vietnam. Those meanie Repullicans. WAAAAAAAAH!
I'm blushing because I keep in mind this is a family friendly forum, but it captures it, doesn't it.
LOL
I agree that Newsweek's polling strategy is deceptive & misleading but THAT is not reported when they reference this poll. I hate polls!
Thats what makes me so frustrated too but can you imagine the panic at DU when they reported Bush ahead by 11 points after the RNC. Sort of makes me smile.
Whatever.
Fox reported the CBS documents, too, until the power of the internet drove the facts home. Fox also dismissed the Swift Vets for almost a week before some truths from them grew to great to ignore.
Please stop worrying. The truth is coming out. Someone just posted the MSNBC linked story on this poll and a poster reminded us how 'twas Newsweek that had a poll with Jeb down 20 points a couple weeks before he in fact won by 14.
So don't be excessive in any despair you decide to indulge in, is my advice.
to great should be too great
It's really not despair...it's frustration. I seriously doubt that FOX will suddenly say, "Wait a minute...Newsweek over-polled Republicans after the RNC & over-polled Democrats after the debate. Not to mention the fact that Thursday's polling was mostly done in the Pacific time zone. No wonder their poll shows the President losing ground." This will not be covered like the SBVT or the CBS documents. There will be no follow-up to this poll.
Having said all that, I still think the President is going to win! I, however, will not have any hair left by Nov. 2nd!
Need we remind you that weeks ago we told you the Newsweek poll was garbage and that their sampling made it likely they would write a "Kerry comeback" story. They've released no internals yet, but relax folks, Bush was never up 11 and Kerry's not up 3. UPDATE: LORIE BYRD'S "BYRD DROPPINGS" HAS THE INTERNALS AND A GREAT ANALYSIS THAT SHOW THIS POLL IS GARBAGE.
OK, We'll Panic Later! crushkerry.com--blogging against interest--warns against putting too much faith in that Newsweek poll showing an 11 point Bush lead. Scott Rasmussen says the same about the similar Time poll. .. .Both polls oversampled Republican voters, the argument goes--which would mean that the actual Bush lead is much smaller than 11 percent. ... Update: Minuteman piles on--and he offers the obvious explanation: "proper Reps were at home watching their convention and answering the phone when pollsters called, while proper Dems were off doing" whatever Dems do during the GOP convention. [If that's right, shouldn't the Newsweek poll have shown a big Kerry edge during the Dem convention?--ed It did!]... 2:14 A.M.
Doesn't Bush's seemingly substantial post-convention bounce give the lie to the theory--which has infected Bush's own campaign --that there are no swing voters left (so the best bet is to turn out your "base" voters)? Obviously there are plenty of swing voters because Bush just swung 'em! ... 5:03 P.M.
Friday, September 3, 2004
Can we panic now? 52-41. [Thanks to Dr. M] .. Update: All you cocoon-enforcers who've been emailing me about how the 52-41 Time poll is an outlier can stop now. Newsweek has replicated the finding. Time and Newsweek can't both be wrong, can they? Don't answer that. Update: Actually, the answer is they might both be wrong. ... More: An appropriately panicked Susan Estrich suggests some lines of negative Dem counterattack. They don't seem out of bounds to me. They do seem ineffective. Bush isn't running on his Vietnam service record. ... But Estrich does bury some juicy charges about Lee Atwater's role in planting nasty negative stories about Dukakis in 1988. ... 3:43 P.M.
Bush speech:
1) Another State of the Union laundry list, at least in the first half. We'll just all have to reconcile ourselves to the unfortunate popularity of SOTU-style speeches. Voters must like them for some reason, the way TV viewers like stories about the weather.
2) Good theft of Clintonesque lifelong learning theme;
3) Good theft of Shrumian populist cliche ("And government must take your side");
4) Emphasis on portable everything (health, pension, training) alarmingly coherent; almost makes it seem as if Bush has a second-term domestic agenda!
5) He only says he'll "keep the promise of Social Security for our older workers." [Emph. added.] Younger workers are on notice;
6) Question: Will the increase in training money come in the form of vouchers? That would fit with the portability and ownership themes but runs afoul of the powerful job training/community college lobby. Bush does not seem to be rocking that boat--he doesn't mention vouchers.
7) The speech seems self-confident, yet there are remarkably few sharp edges that might bother moderate voters (e.g. no stem cells, no U.N.-bashing);
8) Between the "we saw a threat" rationale for invading Iraq and the messianic democracy-spreading rationale, this wasn't a good day for the traditional concept of sovereignty;
9) Bush has sacrificed any " "return to normalcy" appeal. It's "transformational" history-making from here on out for him.
Overall, the speech was highly effective if not memorable. The one possible upside for Democrats: If Bush now pulls ahead in the polls Dems may substitute a clear-eyed panic for their previous media-fed belief that this is necessarily a close race--abandoning as well all the bogus comforting spin ("Wbrong track" internals will save us! Hispanics will save us! 527s will save us! Cheney's unpopularity will save us! Joe Lockhart will save us! etc.).
That's the way the cocoon crumbles. Better now than on Election Day. 4:27 A.M.
Anybody buyin'?
Talk about big fat stupid white men!
I heard some of the Fox commentary this morning. The weekend crew is consistently disappointing...in many ways but particularly in their unwillingness to examine issues closely. I think Fox panders to other viewer-types on weekends personally.
That said, these WHOLE DEBATES are mostly media fodder IMO, especially this year.
Prairie
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