Kerry will be effective on Thursday. The guy is just a good debator, and the format will force him to lay out simple, concrete ideas. Bush will (accurately) accuse him of flip-flopping, and Kerry will just say that's spin and that the American people can judge him squarely on what he says tonight. It will work with some voters.
I'm also very concerned about the voter registration numbers. Dems have really gone heavy on this, and in states where there is no photo I.D. requirement, fraud is a real possibility. With an election that may be decided by a few thousand votes in some key swing states, this election is still open.
I hope Dubya hangs on and pulls it out, but far too many people are counting their chickens when the eggs haven't even been laid yet.
Kerry is the Wrong canidate at the Wrong time.
I agree!
I was at the Bush-Cheney office in St Paul last night, assembling lawn signs.
There was pretty close to a full crew there manning the phones, doing data entry and assembling lawn signs.
I refuse to accept that this race is over and that Bush has it in the bag! No one should.
No sleep (OK, I lied...I got 7 hours last night) 'til November 2nd.
Is the consultant named Astro?
They didn't poll the dead, the convicts, and the illegal aliens. Fraud is going to be outrageous in this election. Keep fighting until the last vote is counted.
I wonder if any studies have been done on how much vote fraud could possibly effect an election? Or, how massive it would have to be to change the election results? If Bush is really up 5% points, are the dems wasting their time cheating?
I do not trust liberals and it is not over until the vote is certified.
Polling cannot be our guide. I keep reading about the huge numbers of 18-25 year olds registering to vote and this group is not showing up in the polls. There is too much at stake for the liberal class to let this election slip out of their hands.
I think this guy is pretty much on-target, but he fails to note a number of variables:
1) A new October surprise. Some would say that the opponents have nothing new to offer there. But that doesn't prevent them from making stuff up, and their willing accomplices in the media would still run with it.
2) A major attack in Iraq that kills a hundred or more troops. While in the grand scheme of things, this should not be important, if it happened close to the election, it would have a big impact. (Note that attacks here in the US would probably work in Bush's favor, not against him. If the terrorists have any brains, they'll know that. Evidence on whether they have any brains is mixed.)
3) There's a very small possibility that Bush could do something in the debates that would turn the dynamic against him. In a fair campaign, it would be practically impossible for him to say anything that would do that much damage. But since the media is just looking for the opportunity to hang something on him, a comparitively small mistake could be blown way out of proportion.
4) Very low probability miscellanea - A Dick Cheney heart attack, for example.
So there's no reason to get complacent, and every reason not to. The down-ticket elections matter just as much, and lots of them are closer than the presidential election.
BTTT and bookmark -- great article and your cautionary words on vote fraud are absolutely spot on! I am fearful of a 2000 experience writ large and what that might mean for our country.
blah....
Don't get COCKY!... the RATS are plannign to STEAL the election with Voter Fraud... we need to stay ON TOP OF THIS
What complete nonsense.
Republican hacks have always been stupidly unaware of their true enemy.
They fight like girls, just like the Conservative media do, most of the time.
The elite NY and Hollywood media have full control of events, they shape our culture, our policies and education.
They shape our moods, thoughts, and words. They destroy in an instant, reputations, incomes, and lives.
The "mob" is fickle, and who controls the mob?
Maybe FR and other grass-roots can save the US from the Kerry/UN/Soros ticket.
Talk to everyone you see, every minute of everyday.
And pray.
Ping
If Bush has this all sewn up, let's go after voter fraud.
I agree with Mr. Carny's assessment of the race as it stands now; however, we must keep our focus squarely on the ball, not the scoreboard.
Now is the time to work harder and POUR IT ON!
We just might tip the scales in a few undecided Congressional or Senate races.
How about it Alaska? Colorado? Florida? S. Dakota?
That's excellent news, in more ways than one. Logic dicatates (somewhat) that the larger Bush's lead becomes, the longer his coattails become. I know that's not always the case, but it seems to apply here because the party in general and the downticket candidates in particular are so closely identified with and supportive of the president that good will for G Dub should "trickle down" somewhat.
What can their panicked Dem opponents do? Pull a Daschle and embrace the president? That's a sign of desperation and one not likely to convince many voters (i.e, why vote for a Dem who likes the president when it's expedient when you can vote for the Republican who supports him nearly always?)
A Bush ample victory (or, dare I say, even a landslide) will give George W. Bush the greatest mandate for governance for a GOP president since, what, the Civil War? Majorities will increase in both houses of Congress, and no longer will the Dems talk about "stolen" elections and a"mandate-less" presidency.
A clear Bush mandate places immense pressure on the Dems to be less confrontational in the 2005-2006 Congressional period else they face retribution at the polls in 2006.
Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but any way you slice it a sizable Bush win should make his next four years easier, comparatively speaking, than his first four when it comes to getting things done.
BIG things.
Right Raggy! Ri Ragree Rerry is Rone!!!!