Posted on 09/29/2004 6:27:44 AM PDT by crushkerry
David Carney is one of the top GOP political consultants in the country. He also happens to be a friend of crushkerry.com. His piece originally appeared in the Concord Monitor last Sunday. We post it here for you today, because in recent weeks we have felt the urge to express a similar sentiment as Mr. Carney’s - mainly because GOP polling firms with whom we are in daily contact are saying the same thing - that at this point all signs are pointing to a huge Bush victory. Keep in mind also that these polling firms are paid by the party to give the unvarnished truth, not the "pie in the sky" happy talk. In fact, the insider polling data is looking so good it's making many of them nervous. We didn't want to mention this because we have been too afraid to jinx the momentum we’ve built up. Carney, a grizzled veteran more experienced than superstitious has no such fears. This doesn't mean we can just coast to election day however. Keep working. Hope you enjoy.
How bad is John Kerry's campaign? So bad that the race is already over.
By David M. Carney
Trust me. I know a dead campaign when I see one
John Kerry is in trouble. More precisely, Kerry's campaign is in trouble. I should know: I served on two of the worst-run national presidential campaigns in history, Bush-Quayle '92 and Dole-Kemp in '96. Watching the Kerry campaign flounder is giving me nightmares and flashbacks to those bad old days.
There is no way that Kerry can win this race. He and his merry band of elitists have done everything in their power to blow it. They have given many of us pleasure in the knowledge that in a few weeks others will carry the mantle of "the worst run race in presidential history." Thank you Mary Beth, Bob, Joe, James, Paul and the rest.
In honor of Kerry's appearance on Late Night with David Letterman, I would like to list the top 10 reasons why the 2004 race for the White House is over.
10) If a simple yes will do but you insist on explaining why no is a viable alternative, the flip-flopping tag will stick
9) When the number of folks participating on conference calls for your rapid-response team exceeds the number of days left in the campaign, the calls are neither rapid nor responsive. They merely provide excuses for Nov. 2.
8) When there are more sightings of your vice presidential running mate on milk cartons than on the campaign trial, you are going to lose. Your VP choice is supposed to help win the election, not reassure the trial bar.
7) When your battleground states become the states that Walter Mondale carried in 1984, you may notice campaign staffers updating their resumes.
6) When your most loyal backer, Don Imus, is trashing you while you're still on the phone and not waiting until after you hang up, the noise you're hearing is the fat lady warming up.
5) When your friends are more effective taking you off message (i.e., the Texas Democrats, Dan Rather and Max Cleland) than your opponent, you can kiss that Nantucket White House goodbye.
4) When the Electoral College scoreboard has tilted toward your opponent after $300 million worth of negative attacks, there's not much hope for the $40 million you have left.
3) When you need to pull out every trick in the book to keep folks off the ballot, like Ralph Nader, it says two things: One, you have no confidence in your own platform and two, you're not very tolerant of others' views. Not appealing traits to swing voters.
2) When the makers of flip-flops are considering a defamation suit for spoiling their good name, it's time to take a position, any position and stick with it.
1) When your Senate Democrat leader, Tom Daschle, is cutting his losses and embracing President Bush, put a fork in your arm, John, you're done.
Events out of the control of the Kerry campaign could still change the outcome. Barring that, if Republicans keep on the offense and work hard and Kerry keeps adding to the number of chairs on the deck, this race is over.
Now, for those true believers who cling to the impossible and consider Kerry to be the real deal, here is my reality check for you:
If you believe anyone's better than Bush, you are not like the rest of America. Real folks don't hate Bush; only you and your friends do. Folks like Bush much more than Kerry.
If you believe the debates will change the dynamics of the race, I'm afraid the reality will never live up to your fantasy. The debates will not change the election.
First, they are not debates but joint appearances. Second, Kerry will have to reach too far and make up to much ground to ever meet expectations.
Third, Kerry may be smart, but he cannot connect with average voters, and this will never be more painfully obvious than during the "debates."
If you believe Iraq will save the day, look at the last few weeks. Kerry has had too many positions to be an effective voice for change, and Bush will always win on the war/national security issue, just as he has done since the Republican convention. You can take book that Kerry will have at least three more stands on this issue before election day.
If you believe Kerry's new team will straighten all this out and Kerry will be on message, take a second look. They are on board now, and let's see, their new message is . . . ? Okay, give up? Is it "W stands for wrong," "the excuse president" or "the buck starts here?" That was just from three days last week. Kerry has the message discipline of a spoiled brat. He would not know a talking point if it stuck him in the eye.
If you believe the battleground states will pull him through, it's time for you to get a new map. Deep blue states of New Jersey, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon and New York are in play. This race is on the verge of being a landslide.
Finally, if you believe Kerry is always best when he's behind, check your history. Kerry is a liberal from Massachusetts. When was the last time he was behind in a race? The fact that he even had a race the last time he ran for reelection only shows how bad a campaigner he really is.
The elitist Bush bashers were scared of Howard Dean and rallied around the one guy they believed had been vetted and had been through tough campaigns before. They were wrong.
And there are many Republican political operatives, like me, who are ready to relinquish the mantle of running the worst campaign ever.
Thank you, John Kerry.
(David M. Carney has been involved in Republican politics, as well as both state and federal government, since 1982. He is president of Norway Hill Associates, a Hancock political consulting firm.)
I will not breath relief until November 4TH.
I have a feeling the dims ar up to fake voters registrations. But whoever votes for this pumpkin really gets the scarry kerry they vote for. We should win in a landslide but the stuff the libs pull to win will stop at nothing..............
when you consider the fact that Bush is now speaking to crowds of 30,000 and Kerry is speaking to crowds in the hundreds, the race is ove.
A report says that about 15% are now up for grabs, if Bush and Kerry split that Bush is still up by 8.
A few months ago Susan Estrich used the same quote to describe the Bush campaign. Of course Bush had a lot more time to reverse the tide than Kerry does. So I take these with a grain of salt. I think Bush will win but analysts are very often wrong.
Nope. It bucks people up into working harder. There will plenty of time to savor the rewards after 9:00 P.M EST. By then Texas will put the President over the top and the rest's gravy.
It's not even October yet. I'll bookmark this for a nice gloating read on November 3rd, but right now I have too much campaign work to do!
If they split the 15% Bush will be up by around 13%. He is currently up between 6 and 9%.
Voter fraud is worth at least 5 percentage points - enough to sway any swing state, and even some safe states. Don't ever forget how fraud costed a few senate seats in 2000 and almost stole the election for algore in Florida.
Exactly. Wouldn't it just be amazing to be hearing these types of reports all the way up to Nov. 2nd and then wake up on Wednesday morning, November 3rd to see that the dead people have spoken.
When adding mug-grips to your flip-flops yeilds less traction.
Kerry will be effective on Thursday. The guy is just a good debator, and the format will force him to lay out simple, concrete ideas. Bush will (accurately) accuse him of flip-flopping, and Kerry will just say that's spin and that the American people can judge him squarely on what he says tonight. It will work with some voters.
I'm also very concerned about the voter registration numbers. Dems have really gone heavy on this, and in states where there is no photo I.D. requirement, fraud is a real possibility. With an election that may be decided by a few thousand votes in some key swing states, this election is still open.
I hope Dubya hangs on and pulls it out, but far too many people are counting their chickens when the eggs haven't even been laid yet.
A stolen election might be the proverbial "shot heard around the world". Kerry would destroy the US.
Kerry is the Wrong canidate at the Wrong time.
I agree!
I was at the Bush-Cheney office in St Paul last night, assembling lawn signs.
There was pretty close to a full crew there manning the phones, doing data entry and assembling lawn signs.
I refuse to accept that this race is over and that Bush has it in the bag! No one should.
No sleep (OK, I lied...I got 7 hours last night) 'til November 2nd.
I don't share your optimism, or anyone else's.
I have never known the kind and depth of hate that The Left has tapped into, this time. They have whipped The Sheep into a frenzy. Every media icon has been geared and spun to destroying GWB: Vietnam, hatred of religion, Watergate, Y2K, the environment, and how many others you can name.
Lies are broadcast with total impugnity, and believed without question. Soldiers are beaten at public events, and not a finger is raised to help.
I can't trust The Sheep to make any decision without the help and prompting of their favorite Hollywood stars. I myself will never again vote Democrat. But The Sheep always will.
This will not be a GOP landslide. This will be Y2K Redux: not just on a single battleground state, but nationwide and on a new level of violence.
Is the consultant named Astro?
They didn't poll the dead, the convicts, and the illegal aliens. Fraud is going to be outrageous in this election. Keep fighting until the last vote is counted.
Agreed, though column is encouraging to those of us working or planning to work on the election.
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