Kerry will be effective on Thursday. The guy is just a good debator, and the format will force him to lay out simple, concrete ideas. Bush will (accurately) accuse him of flip-flopping, and Kerry will just say that's spin and that the American people can judge him squarely on what he says tonight. It will work with some voters.
I'm also very concerned about the voter registration numbers. Dems have really gone heavy on this, and in states where there is no photo I.D. requirement, fraud is a real possibility. With an election that may be decided by a few thousand votes in some key swing states, this election is still open.
I hope Dubya hangs on and pulls it out, but far too many people are counting their chickens when the eggs haven't even been laid yet.
It's not a debate, it's a joint appearance. Bush certainly isn't going to get in the game of picking at Kerry's arguing points. He's not going to mention "flip-flop" once. The election isn't about Mr Kerry's arguing points. It's about who will do the best job of protecting America against her enemies. Ultimately it's about character...and that doesn't come out of a tube or a salon.