Posted on 09/29/2004 6:27:44 AM PDT by crushkerry
David Carney is one of the top GOP political consultants in the country. He also happens to be a friend of crushkerry.com. His piece originally appeared in the Concord Monitor last Sunday. We post it here for you today, because in recent weeks we have felt the urge to express a similar sentiment as Mr. Carney’s - mainly because GOP polling firms with whom we are in daily contact are saying the same thing - that at this point all signs are pointing to a huge Bush victory. Keep in mind also that these polling firms are paid by the party to give the unvarnished truth, not the "pie in the sky" happy talk. In fact, the insider polling data is looking so good it's making many of them nervous. We didn't want to mention this because we have been too afraid to jinx the momentum we’ve built up. Carney, a grizzled veteran more experienced than superstitious has no such fears. This doesn't mean we can just coast to election day however. Keep working. Hope you enjoy.
How bad is John Kerry's campaign? So bad that the race is already over.
By David M. Carney
Trust me. I know a dead campaign when I see one
John Kerry is in trouble. More precisely, Kerry's campaign is in trouble. I should know: I served on two of the worst-run national presidential campaigns in history, Bush-Quayle '92 and Dole-Kemp in '96. Watching the Kerry campaign flounder is giving me nightmares and flashbacks to those bad old days.
There is no way that Kerry can win this race. He and his merry band of elitists have done everything in their power to blow it. They have given many of us pleasure in the knowledge that in a few weeks others will carry the mantle of "the worst run race in presidential history." Thank you Mary Beth, Bob, Joe, James, Paul and the rest.
In honor of Kerry's appearance on Late Night with David Letterman, I would like to list the top 10 reasons why the 2004 race for the White House is over.
10) If a simple yes will do but you insist on explaining why no is a viable alternative, the flip-flopping tag will stick
9) When the number of folks participating on conference calls for your rapid-response team exceeds the number of days left in the campaign, the calls are neither rapid nor responsive. They merely provide excuses for Nov. 2.
8) When there are more sightings of your vice presidential running mate on milk cartons than on the campaign trial, you are going to lose. Your VP choice is supposed to help win the election, not reassure the trial bar.
7) When your battleground states become the states that Walter Mondale carried in 1984, you may notice campaign staffers updating their resumes.
6) When your most loyal backer, Don Imus, is trashing you while you're still on the phone and not waiting until after you hang up, the noise you're hearing is the fat lady warming up.
5) When your friends are more effective taking you off message (i.e., the Texas Democrats, Dan Rather and Max Cleland) than your opponent, you can kiss that Nantucket White House goodbye.
4) When the Electoral College scoreboard has tilted toward your opponent after $300 million worth of negative attacks, there's not much hope for the $40 million you have left.
3) When you need to pull out every trick in the book to keep folks off the ballot, like Ralph Nader, it says two things: One, you have no confidence in your own platform and two, you're not very tolerant of others' views. Not appealing traits to swing voters.
2) When the makers of flip-flops are considering a defamation suit for spoiling their good name, it's time to take a position, any position and stick with it.
1) When your Senate Democrat leader, Tom Daschle, is cutting his losses and embracing President Bush, put a fork in your arm, John, you're done.
Events out of the control of the Kerry campaign could still change the outcome. Barring that, if Republicans keep on the offense and work hard and Kerry keeps adding to the number of chairs on the deck, this race is over.
Now, for those true believers who cling to the impossible and consider Kerry to be the real deal, here is my reality check for you:
If you believe anyone's better than Bush, you are not like the rest of America. Real folks don't hate Bush; only you and your friends do. Folks like Bush much more than Kerry.
If you believe the debates will change the dynamics of the race, I'm afraid the reality will never live up to your fantasy. The debates will not change the election.
First, they are not debates but joint appearances. Second, Kerry will have to reach too far and make up to much ground to ever meet expectations.
Third, Kerry may be smart, but he cannot connect with average voters, and this will never be more painfully obvious than during the "debates."
If you believe Iraq will save the day, look at the last few weeks. Kerry has had too many positions to be an effective voice for change, and Bush will always win on the war/national security issue, just as he has done since the Republican convention. You can take book that Kerry will have at least three more stands on this issue before election day.
If you believe Kerry's new team will straighten all this out and Kerry will be on message, take a second look. They are on board now, and let's see, their new message is . . . ? Okay, give up? Is it "W stands for wrong," "the excuse president" or "the buck starts here?" That was just from three days last week. Kerry has the message discipline of a spoiled brat. He would not know a talking point if it stuck him in the eye.
If you believe the battleground states will pull him through, it's time for you to get a new map. Deep blue states of New Jersey, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon and New York are in play. This race is on the verge of being a landslide.
Finally, if you believe Kerry is always best when he's behind, check your history. Kerry is a liberal from Massachusetts. When was the last time he was behind in a race? The fact that he even had a race the last time he ran for reelection only shows how bad a campaigner he really is.
The elitist Bush bashers were scared of Howard Dean and rallied around the one guy they believed had been vetted and had been through tough campaigns before. They were wrong.
And there are many Republican political operatives, like me, who are ready to relinquish the mantle of running the worst campaign ever.
Thank you, John Kerry.
(David M. Carney has been involved in Republican politics, as well as both state and federal government, since 1982. He is president of Norway Hill Associates, a Hancock political consulting firm.)
Is that you Scooby Do?
That's just it... we don't know how much we have to win by to overcome the voter fraud. Hopefully we have our own armies of poll watchers quietly moving into position. It would be great to catch some of these butt-clowns red-handed this time and end this little cottage industry.
I wonder if any studies have been done on how much vote fraud could possibly effect an election? Or, how massive it would have to be to change the election results? If Bush is really up 5% points, are the dems wasting their time cheating?
I do not trust liberals and it is not over until the vote is certified.
Polling cannot be our guide. I keep reading about the huge numbers of 18-25 year olds registering to vote and this group is not showing up in the polls. There is too much at stake for the liberal class to let this election slip out of their hands.
It's not a debate, it's a joint appearance. Bush certainly isn't going to get in the game of picking at Kerry's arguing points. He's not going to mention "flip-flop" once. The election isn't about Mr Kerry's arguing points. It's about who will do the best job of protecting America against her enemies. Ultimately it's about character...and that doesn't come out of a tube or a salon.
I think this guy is pretty much on-target, but he fails to note a number of variables:
1) A new October surprise. Some would say that the opponents have nothing new to offer there. But that doesn't prevent them from making stuff up, and their willing accomplices in the media would still run with it.
2) A major attack in Iraq that kills a hundred or more troops. While in the grand scheme of things, this should not be important, if it happened close to the election, it would have a big impact. (Note that attacks here in the US would probably work in Bush's favor, not against him. If the terrorists have any brains, they'll know that. Evidence on whether they have any brains is mixed.)
3) There's a very small possibility that Bush could do something in the debates that would turn the dynamic against him. In a fair campaign, it would be practically impossible for him to say anything that would do that much damage. But since the media is just looking for the opportunity to hang something on him, a comparitively small mistake could be blown way out of proportion.
4) Very low probability miscellanea - A Dick Cheney heart attack, for example.
So there's no reason to get complacent, and every reason not to. The down-ticket elections matter just as much, and lots of them are closer than the presidential election.
BTTT and bookmark -- great article and your cautionary words on vote fraud are absolutely spot on! I am fearful of a 2000 experience writ large and what that might mean for our country.
blah....
Don't get COCKY!... the RATS are plannign to STEAL the election with Voter Fraud... we need to stay ON TOP OF THIS
What complete nonsense.
Republican hacks have always been stupidly unaware of their true enemy.
They fight like girls, just like the Conservative media do, most of the time.
The elite NY and Hollywood media have full control of events, they shape our culture, our policies and education.
They shape our moods, thoughts, and words. They destroy in an instant, reputations, incomes, and lives.
The "mob" is fickle, and who controls the mob?
Maybe FR and other grass-roots can save the US from the Kerry/UN/Soros ticket.
Talk to everyone you see, every minute of everyday.
And pray.
"Rooby-Racks"?
Ping
I'm along for the ride with this article except for the opinion that "New York is in play". Don't think there's any chance at all.
If every single Freeper would call or better, visit, at least 10 friends and family members and make sure they get out and vote for our great president, that could mean a million extra votes. Do it! I am.
If Bush has this all sewn up, let's go after voter fraud.
Even though I will have one heck of a time even watching or listening when Kerry speaks, I totally despise this man, there will be others who think he is just great. And you can bet the liberal pundits on all the MSM including Fox, will brag about good he did.
I agree with Mr. Carny's assessment of the race as it stands now; however, we must keep our focus squarely on the ball, not the scoreboard.
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