Posted on 09/27/2004 4:47:34 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 91.0 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 81.0 | 6 | 0 |
California | 10.5 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 78.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 19.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 62.0 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 97.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 10.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 96.0 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 12.0 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 97.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 59.0 | 7 | 0 |
Kansas | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 92.0 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 94.5 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 26.0 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 18.5 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 24.5 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 41.9 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 83.0 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 97.5 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 72.0 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 53.0 | 4 | 0 |
New Jersey | 26.0 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 41.5 | 0 | 5 |
New York | 9.0 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 72.0 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 34.0 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 43.0 | 0 | 21 |
Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 95.0 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 89.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 98.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 97.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 9.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 90.0 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 24.0 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 79.2 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 67.0 | 10 | 0 |
Wyoming | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 295 | 243 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 295 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 243 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 298.88 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
I'm still confident we will deliver Minnesota to W. Add 10 and W is over 300 electoral votes.
President Bush has a good shot of winning in states that are in the 40 percent range or above. I think he'll definitely take NH. The only true tossups are MN and NM. ORE is on the borderline. Anything below 30 is Kerry territory.
I think the current outlook is overly generous to Kerry in the Great Lake states and the west.
Add to that Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes and its looking more and more like a landslide.
Make no mistake, Pennsylvania WILL be in Dubya's column in November.
Amazingly enough it appears that NJ and Illinois may be coming into play. A win in PA, NJ or IL would seem to doom Kerry. Early election results should be interesting.
Still way too close
i would prefer to see like 350 EV for BUSH
Bumping!
Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
09/13 | 73.7% | 291.5 | 34.2 |
09/20 | 80.1% | 297.3 | 33.4 |
09/27 | 81.0% | 298.9 | 33.9 |
I'm hoping he breaks Clinton's 379 mark in '96. THAT would be a mandate!
BITS
Thanks jdege!
Thanks jdege!
I went to see our President speak in Springfield Ohio today and I'm sure it was a even brighter blue when he was done.
I'm hoping he breaks Clinton's 379 mark in '96. THAT would be a mandate!
McGovern ran as an antiwar candidate and carried one state.
Mondale ran as tax-increasing candiate and carried one state.
I'd like to see Kerry win D.C. - and see one of the electors throw away her vote in a protest.
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